The first half of the Coho Ho Ho is complete!

9:29 am "Moments has landed at Berkeley Marina. See you in Mexico! " ...Adam

Now that all the boats have safely completed the first leg of the Coho Ho Ho, we can send a warm congratulations to all the boats, skippers and crews!

Brad Baker at Swiftsure Yachts did a wonderful job with his daily weather briefs.  He will occasional send us updates as the boats make their way down the California Coast.  Also heaps of thanks to our supporters, and to our shore support:  Angela at Dockside Solutions and Lee at Gig Harbor Yacht Sales... More thanks to our sponsors.  We'll be posting about them too!

We will continue to post on boat locations on the blog, as they report on their travels.

The Coho Ho Ho team is very pleased and excited to have reached this milestone and are excited about the ongoing adventures of our boats.  We've a lot of ideas and plans to make next years Coho Ho Ho even bigger and better!

The Coho Ho Ho Founders

Doug Lombard

Karl Christopher

Eva Lombard

Weather Brief and boat locations August 27, Tuesday

Karl report: Locations as I know them August 26  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - Half Moon Bay
sv Non Sequitur - in Port- Alemeda S.F.

sv Dawn Treader - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.

sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Moments -yesterday:  left Eureka bound for SF
sv Ohana - Half Moon Bay CA.

Mega Kudos to Brad for his weather support!

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Tue, Aug 27, 2013 at 8:13 AM
Subject: August 27 weather

It has been my pleasure to help with weather for the Cohohoho.     Hopefully I got it right more than I got it wrong.  It appears that most the boats have made the passage to San Francisco safely.   Having made the trip up and down the coast several times myself, I truly wish I were out there with you.   For those of you continuing on South lots of great anchorages and experience await you.  If you have the chance, make the stop and set the hook at San Simeon.    This is a good anchorage in Northerly winds and you can catch the shuttle up for the Hearst Castle tour.  The bay itself is alive with abundant sea life and diving birds.    The Channel Islands are great.  We really enjoyed our stay at Santa Cruz Island as well.    I wish you all the best.

I will not be continuing with daily weather reports, but remain at your disposal.    Don't hesitate to contact me.

Email:  brad@swiftsureyachts.com

Cell: 206-920-7147

I will keep any eye on weather and the fleet and will likely make a report from time to time.

The forecast is nearly identical to yesterdays.    The dominant weather feature is a low pressure system hanging out off the Washington coast.   The current models show variations on this pattern all the way into the weekend.  There are indications that the low will push inland sometime Monday with a pattern change starting Tuesday where high pressure and northerlies on the coast starting Tuesday.   At 7 days out confidence is not high in this coming to pass, but there is a glimmer of hope for those wanting to start down the coast.  In any case the National Weather Service forecasters are calling for an organized system to come ashore late Thursday afternoon and evening.   Though the details are different the result could very well be the same as the front that passed us by yesterday.    Building south winds should be expected on Thursday from cape Blanco north eventually blowing 20-30 by Thursday evening.    Northern California waters should stay relatively benign from cape Mendocino South, with light to moderate W to NW winds blowing between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco.  South of San Francisco will likely see Moderate to heavy NW winds during the next few days for anyone deciding to venture further South.

Cape Flattery to Cape Mendocino

Today and Wednesday – S winds 5-15 (higher gusts possible) rain at times

Thursday – S winds 5-15 in the morning building to 15-25 with gusts exceeding 30 knots at times in the evening.  Rain

Friday – winds subsiding a bit with Southerlies 10-20, should dry up a bit with scattered showers

Saturday – South winds to 15

Seas – Swell 3-6 feet with wind waves 1-5 feet.  The swell will subside today, with lowest waves Wednesday then begin to build again Thursday

The strongest Southerly winds look to be Cape Blanco North during this forecast period

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco

Today thru Saturday – Variations on W to NW winds 5-20.  Patchy night and morning fog.

Seas 3 to 6 feet.  Wind waves 1-3 feet

Periods of higher sustained winds are always possible in this area with the diurnal cycle so keep this in mind and be prepared to reef accordingly.

San Francisco to Point Conception

Today thru Saturday – NW winds 15-25 with higher gusts (especially higher near Point Conception)  Winds will likely be less within 10 miles of the coast.

Seas – 4 to 7 feet with wind waves to 3 to 6 feet, all should be from the NW.

Cheers!

Brad
--

Weather Brief and boat locations August 26, monday

Karl report: Locations as I know them August 26  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - Half Moon Bay
sv Non Sequitur - in Port- Alemeda S.F.

sv Dawn Treader - in Port- Clipper Cove, S.F.

sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Moments - 01:00 arrived in Eureka about an hour ago, to depart again this afternoon
sv Ohana - 07:02 "We have arrived! Half Moon Bay CA.  900 miles of offshore sailing achieved! Now for sleep"

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Mon, Aug 26, 2013 at 8:05 AM
Subject: August 26 weather

The weather models are sticking with a trough and associated low pressure system persisting off the NW Coast for at least the next 5 days.  In the short there are small craft warning that extend from Cape Flattery all the way to Just south of Cape Blanco.  A fairly substantial cold front will pass through the Washington and Oregon coastal waters today, probably really getting cranked up by the time this forecast goes out to the fleet.   Peak winds out of the South to 30 knots can be expected just before and with frontal passage, then shifting to the SW after the front and subsiding rather quickly.  Oh, and it's gonna rain.  There might even be a lightning strike or two in the coastal waters.   Actual timing for the front itself should be early to mid afternoon and will be inland by late this evening (that means we get rain here in Seattle later today L which my lawn will likeJ).  Beyond today, with the low wobbling like a top offshore,  conditions will remain unsettled off the Washington and Oregon Coasts with prevailing winds out of the south.   It looks like the next organized system will be towards the end of the week, but timing of stuff like this can change.   In contrast for the Northern California waters, pressure gradients should remain light over the next at least 4 day.  This means light to moderate W to NW winds from Cape Mendocino South.  The gradients do pick up a bit mid California to Southern California, so from about SF south I'd say winds will be more in the moderate category.

For any of you waiting for a good weather window to start down the coast it looks as though the pattern may change in about 1 week to a more northerly pattern for the Washington and Oregon waters. 

Cape Flattery to Cape Mendocino

Today – Small craft warnings from Cape Blanco South.  South winds this morning at 15 knots building to 20-30 knots this afternoon (higher gust).  Rain.  Wind shifting to the SW in the evening and subsiding late to 10-20 most likely after midnight.  There is a reasonable chance of lightning today through this evening in coastal waters.

Tues & Weds – Variations on South winds 5-15 knots, rain and or fog possible.

Thurs & Friday – Actual timing is in question but it looks like another front with winds 15-25 from the south possible sometime these days.

For this entire forecast period wind should be stronger the further North you are in the forecast area (Washington and N. Oregon coasts).  Winds between Capes Blanco and Mendocino should remain light to moderate

Seas – W to SW swell 6 to 7 feet peaking Monday evening with wind waves to 6 feet as well.    Otherwise Swell 3 to 5 feet with wind waves 1-3 feet

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco

Today – Thursday - W to NW winds 5-15 knots.  There will be times with little or no wind and certainly fog is always a factor in these waters.

Friday – It's a bit distant in the forecast but it looks like gradients should increase for winds to 20 knots out of the NW on Friday.

Seas not exceeding 6' with wind waves 1-3 feet.

Brad

Weather Brief and boat locations August 25 sunday

Congratulations to all the boats who have made it safely to San Francisco!
Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 25  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - in Port- Bodega Bay
sv Non Sequitur - in Port- Alemeda S.F.

sv Dawn Treader - in Port- Clipper Cove, S.F.

sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Moments - left Newport yesterday, heading for Eureka
sv Ohana - 06:21 "Rounding Pt. Arena, 100nm N of S.F. entrance, calm flat seas.  should be there 0030 tonight

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Sun, Aug 25, 2013 at 7:51 AM
Subject: August 25th weather

Well it's not the best weather window for those who plan to leave down the coast now.    That is unless you like beating in southerly winds sometime blowing in excess of 20 knots with lots of rain off and on.   The pattern looks to be surprisingly stable, with a trough and upper level low perched right off the Washington/Oregon Coast and high pressure in our nation's interior solidly entrenched blocking the low from moving inland, thus not allowing the pattern to change a whole heck of a lot at least for the next 5 days and probably beyond.   The forecast discussion from the National Weather Service says the various weather models are all in agreement on this pattern continuing, which usually means, that well, the pattern will continue.    It's hard to nail down specific times for when the short wave systems will pulse into our coastal waters, save what looks to be a fairly organized cold front that is on tap for Monday, most likely in the afternoon.   In the short term things look light and out of the North pretty much for the entire coast from Flattery to SF.   From approx. Cape Mendocino North, the gradients will turn more southerly sometime later today and it looks as though they will stay that way through my forecast period.    For the California waters South of Cape Mendocino gradients will be relatively light bringing light to moderate breeze mostly out of the N.

Cape Flattery to Cape Mendocino

Today – Light winds starting out of the N. 0 – 10 knots changing over to Southerly in the afternoon or evening to 15 knots.

Monday – A cold front is scheduled for your sailing pleasure with S winds changing to SW with frontal passage in the afternoon.  Wind speeds 10-25 knots with definitely the possibility of higher gusts.  And oh yes there will be rain.

Tues through Thurs - South winds ranging from 5 – 25, rain at times

Seas - Swell 3-5' wind waves 1-6' (depending on how much wind)

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco

Today through Thursday  - Light to moderate winds ranging from 0-20 knots.  The most wind will be as you get closer to SF and with the diurnal cycle it is possible there will be a few hours here and there in excess of that 20 knots.   So be prepared, but I think winds will be more on the light side.     It is possible the Southerlies will reach below Cape Mendocino at times (especially Monday).    You may find yourself beating in light to moderate southerlies if you are in the Northern portion of this forecast area.

Seas should be manageable with a swell 6' and under and wind waves to 1-4 feet.

Brad 

Weather Update Southern Oregon, and future weather reports

Hey Karl,

...Life gets hectic for me starting next week.  I'll continue with weather through Tuesday, after that it will likely be spotty for me and I may not get it done first thing in the morning.    It looks like the bulk of the boats will be in anyway.

I see that Moments left Newport and plans to hole up in Eureka.  The reality is the Southerlies won't blow there until Monday and they won't be all that strong anyway.  They might consider continuing on as the Trough and South winds may linger down that way for a few days North of Mendocino on Monday and beyond.  South of Mendocino the winds should be W to NW and in the light to moderate category.    It looks like the fleet had some winds close to 30 knots last night off Bodega Bay,  Over the next few days it is a lot LESS likely to kick up like that, so perhaps a good window for Moments?

Brad

Weather Brief and boat locations August 24, Saturday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 24  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - in Bodega Bay "...after getting pretty beat up about sunset last night"
sv Non Sequitur - 09:48 Approaching Golden Gate Bridge, going to Alameda this evening

sv Dawn Treader - crossed under Golden Gate in the night, is now in Clipper Cove

sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F. "sailed under the golden gate bridge last night at 21:27 hrs"
sv Moments - 10:45 Leaving Newport for Eureka, where they will wait for low pressure to pass
sv Ohana - 07:20 22nm away from rounding Cape Mendocino, staying about 16nm off cape

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Sat, Aug 24, 2013 at 9:02 AM
Subject: August 24 weather

The overall pattern remains the same with differences in the fine details the models are putting out.   I'm beginning to sound like a broken record.    The model and the National Weather Service forecasters have flip flopped on wind direction for the Oregon and Washington Coast in the short term and now show some lighter NW or W winds perhaps today and into tomorrow, but are more aggressive with a system moving in on Monday with Moderate to the low end of heavy South winds extending all the way down to Cape Mendocino.   If this comes to pass this system will affect pressure gradients south Of Mendocino making for lighter NW winds than previously forecast early next week.     The forecasters don't have a lot of confidence in the long term, my best guess is the trough off the coast will stay put well into next week bringing variations on South winds and rain at times maybe all the way to Friday for CA/OR border Northward.   With the exception of Monday the prevailing winds should remain out of the NW from the Oregon/California Border South.  But these winds will remain in the Light to Moderate Category.

Cape Flattery to CA/OR border

Today – Pretty light, perhaps starting out of SW and shifting to W or Even North.  Wind speeds 0-15

Sunday – Gradients go pretty light, models show winds shifting back to a more southerly direction.  This transition will happen from N to S with Southerlies starting perhaps in the Morning off Washington, but not shifting to South until late in the evening nearer the CA/OR border.

Monday – South winds 5-20 with gusts to 25 knots.  Winds will start lighter, building throughout the day. The timing could change on this but currently the model has frontal passage late Monday night.  Rain

Tuesday & Wednesday - South winds 5-15 knots.

Seas – swell to 5 feet, wind waves to 0-5 feet

CA/OR border to San Francisco

Today & Sunday – NW winds 10-20

Monday – South winds to 15 North of Cape Mendocino otherwise NW winds 5-15 (perhaps higher near SF)

Tuesday & Wednesday NW winds 5-20, more wind the further South you are.

Seas – Swell to 2-5 feet, wind waves to 4 feet

Brad

Weather Brief and boat locations August 23 friday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 2_  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - Departed Eureka with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - 10:33 Heading into Fort Bragg for refuel and head south

sv Dawn Treader - last heard to be south of Coos Bay

sv Unleashed - Departed Eureka headed south.  20kts wind, 4-6 following swell.  Boat and crew happy. Most likely Bodega bay to wait for daylight.
sv Moments - 12:21 Moments will leave Newport tonight or more likely tomorrow morning for Eureka.
sv Ohana - 08:38 "Stopped in Crescent City, CA to refuel and drop off crew... next and final stop Half Moon Bay CA"

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Fri, Aug 23, 2013 at 7:51 AM
Subject: August 23 weather

The National Weather Service Forecast and what the models have been showing over the last few days has verified.  A trough has set up shop off the Oregon and Washington coast at about 140 of Longitude.  The NWS forecast discussion says this trough will spin a series of weak weather systems called short waves towards the coast.  All n all this means light mostly southerly winds for areas north of the California Border, punctuated by periods of rain and some increased wind.    When I say increased wind I suspect absolute max will be 20 knots.  The real issue will likely be very light conditions with limited visibility due to fog and low clouds.  The trough is projected to hang around at least into the first part of next week.  Meanwhile Weak high pressure appears to be directly to the South of the Trough.  This combined with lower pressure inland from heating should produce decent gradients for Northerly winds south of the California border.  The strongest gradients will be further south making for some good sailing conditions as you get closer to SF bay.

Navigational note for those stopping in SF:  There is a Shoal to the West and North of the entrance to the bay called Four Fathom Bank, more commonly known to the locals as the "Potato Patch".    Normally you are OK to sail directly over this area.  However, with a ebb tide and strong NW or W winds, large standing and breaking waves will develop here and it's best to steer clear of this area when it's windy.  There is a channel inside the bank as well as the main channel outside.    The bank is clearly marked on charts.  FYI

Now for the Forecast

Flattery to California Border

Today through Monday - conditions ranging from light variable South winds to South winds reaching as high as 20 knots.    Right now it looks like the strongest winds will be late tonight/early tomorrow then perhaps again on Monday.   It will be lighter the further south you go in this forecast area.  There will likely be rain at times with low clouds and fog possible.  (I guess fog is always a possibility on the coast).

Seas – West Swell to 4 feet at 9 seconds, wind waves 0-3 feet

California Border to SF

Today – Monday   Light winds mostly out of the N. 0-15 knots in the North half of the Forecast area (NWS shows south to 10 on Monday only).  For the Southern half of the forecast area you should have Moderate winds 10-25 knots all out of the N.

Seas – NW swell 3-6 feet at 8-10 seconds, wind waves 1- 5'

Brad

Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 22

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 22  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - departed Eureka this morning, headed south
sv Non Sequitur - 06:48 "Departed Coos Bay yesterday, currently 30 miles offshore west of Crescent City.  No wind, patchy fog, 2-4 foot swell"

sv Dawn Treader - (?) south of Coos Bay

sv Unleashed - Left Eureka this morning, continuing to San Francisco
sv Moments - (?)Grays Harbor
sv Ohana - this morning:  10 miles off Seal Rock, south of Newport.   Message 14:22 wednesday:  "145 nm north of CA Border, under full sail, averaging 5.8 kts, dreaming of palm trees and sand beaches" 09:43 "Dolphins off our bow and no wind"

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Thu, Aug 22, 2013 at 8:12 AM
Subject: August 22 Weather

There is only on real change to my forecast which effects anyone who is going to be North of Coos bay this weekend.  It looks as though Southerly winds will linger though the weekend ( In yesterdays forecast I called for North winds Sat and sun).    The transition is taking place and winds should have lightened significantly over the Southern half of the forecast area.   A quick look at the buoy reports shows me that it currently blowing a whopping 1.9 knots out of the WNW at Cape Blanco and coincidentally 1.9 knots out of the SE off of Eureka.    A trough is in the process of replacing the higher pressure off the Oregon and Washington coasts and looks as though it will linger off the Washington coast through the weekend.  The High is going bye bye off to the west.  The thermal low which has drifted out over Northern California will linger today dissipating by late tonight.   The result should be North winds gradually growing lighter today North of Cape Blanco.  South of Cape B it will be a mixed bag but more than likely a whole lot of nothing for much of the day until the Northerlies resume hopefully sooner than later (perhaps tonight).     Friday sees a change with the models showing S winds North of Cape Blanco and N. winds South of Cape Blanco.  Overall windspeed and sea state look fairly benign through the weekend, though seas could get kicked up a little the closer you get to SF as the winds increase this weekend, but it should be very manageable.

Flattery to Cape Blanco

Today – North Winds 5-15 knots (gusts to 20)

Friday through Sunday - South winds 0 -15 (briefly to 20 with frontal passage possible) the strongest south winds will be off Washington otherwise I'd expect things to be more on the light side as in the possibility of no wind at times

Longer term is point towards Northerly winds returning perhaps on Monday

Seas -  Swell shouldn't exceed 5 feet.  Wind waves to 3 feet in the stronger breezes

Cape Blanco to SF

Today – Hmmmmm.  light and Variable to 10

Tonight – I'm going with filling N to NW winds 0-15, that's my story and I'm sticking to it!

Firday – N winds 5-15 (perhaps gusting to 20 with diurnal cycle)

Saturday N winds 5-20 (higher gusts possible)

Sunday N winds 10-25 (see comment above from Saturday)

The strongest winds look to be More toward SF, so as you get south it should steadily build.

Seas -  should be around 5 feet as far as the swell goes at 7 to 10 seconds.  Wind waves will occur, well, when there is wind.  All n all should be reasonably comfortable seas though.

My experience has been in the Northern California waters when the forecast is for light to moderate Northerlies (like it is now) it still can mysteriously blow stronger, sometimes significantly stronger.  I don't know why this is, but it seems to happen mostly the first part of the evening(but can happen any time) so it's probably a diurnal effect with land heating blah, blah blah.  Just keep mind that it can pick up and be prepared for it. 

Brad

Fwd: August 21 Weather

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 20  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com

sv Journey - reported to be in Eureka day before yesterday

sv Non Sequitur - reported in Coos bay day before yesterday

sv Dawn Treader - "I am in Coos Bay and Headed South."

sv Unleashed - "Unleashed plans to leave Eureka today, crossing the bar at 7a.  We will be sailing to Bodega Bay, which is a 31 hour sail."

sv Moments - reported in Westport day before yesterday, should be on their way today

sv Ohana - "We are now heading out of Newport OR around 0730 amon Wednesday (08/21). We remain with the plan on going direct to Half Moon Bay, CA."

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Wed, Aug 21, 2013 at 7:41 AM
Subject: August 21 Weather

A ridge of high pressure off the US  coast today gives the potential for small craft advisory winds from California border north to Cape Flattery.    The strongest N winds today look to be off the Oregon Coast, but wind speed should stay mid 20's and below (always the potential for higher gusts).    From about the California border South, conditions should be or have already changed to much lighter conditions as the inland low actually migrates to the west over the California coast.    There is definitely the potential for winds to blow out of the South for a brief time from the Northern California border South in the waters closest to the coast.

The weather models show a transition in the eastern pacific.  The high pressure will be replaced by a trough, as the high pressure moves well offshore and to the South.    As usual conditions will vary up and down the coast.  North winds North of Cape Blanco will subside Thursday then shift to the South on Friday.  South of Cape Blanco it's likely thing will get light but may also blow out of the South today and then transition back to North sometime Thursday.  By the weekend things look to have settled into a pattern with not a lot of pressure gradient from mid Oregon North and Moderate NW winds from Newport South.

 

Cape Flattery to California border

Today N winds 10-25 with higher gusts (if you leave from Newport or Coos Bay today take your seasick meds and be prepared to reef the sails)

Thursday N winds 10-20 first half of the day then 5-15 into the evening

Friday SW. winds 5-15 (some rain showers likely especially the further North you are)

Sat-Sun N. winds 0-15

Sea state will start out predicted at 11' with short periods Today, 7' Thursday and down to 4 to 5 feet by Friday

 

California Border South(tricky to forecast right but I will try)

Today  W to NW winds 5 – 15  for offshore waters more than 15 miles out.  S winds 0 – 15 closer to shore

Thursday perhaps some lingering Southerly the further inshore and further South you are otherwise transitioning to NW winds 5-15 for the entire area by the evening hours

Friday – Sunday NW winds 10-25

Seas starting out at about 9 feet then subsiding to 5 feet by the weekend.  As the wind increases again starting Friday wind waves will build as well.

Boat Locations on a Map

Angela at Dockside posted this for us:
http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/dockside.map-65c2l1xe/page.html

There is a perma-link to this map on the right side of the page

Weather Brief and boat locations August 20, Tuesday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 20 - since most of the boats are still holed up in port waiting for a weather window before proceeding, i've had fewer location updates.  I'll update on the blogsite as get more responses:  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com

sv Journey - in Eureka watching weather
sv Non Sequitur - in Coos Bay, watching weather

sv Dawn Treader - in Coos Bay:  "...Yesterdays run from Newport to Coos Bay was a good day.  Sailed from buoy to buoy.  All conditions, light to heavy winds.  Sailed mostly wing on wing poled out headsail.  Speeds from 2 - 6.8 knots with winds up to 15 knots.  Seas were not too bad sometimes very flat, 2' less, to 5 - 6' combined.
Life is good on a boat."

sv Unleashed -  in Eureka watching weather
sv Moments - reported in Westport day-before yesterday
sv Ohana - in Newport waiting weather window  11:46 am via email: "Looking at leaving around 1:30am Wednesday morning on slack to exit bar.  Planning on going direct to Half Moon Bay."

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker
Date: Tue, Aug 20, 2013 at 8:07 AM
Subject: August 20 weather

Change is in the air.   But, for now Northerly winds prevail up and down the coast.   The choke point remains Southern Oregon and Northern California between capes Blanco and Mendocino.   It looks like winds will be the strongest today with sustained 40 knots possible if you happen to be in just the right spot.    A transition starts Wednesday with the gfs model showing  the thermal inland low/trough moving inland and away from the coast.  As this is happen the high pressure system  offshore also retrogrades to well offshore and a cold front sweeps through to the Oregon and Washington waters.  This transitions all occurs starting Wednesday with the model showing a cold front bringing Southerly winds to Oregon and Washington for a relatively brief period on Friday.  Although the strongest winds are currently near the California/Oregon border, winds are forecasted to be brisk all the way up the coast until at least Thursday.  For those planning to resume their trip Wednesday, conditions will likely still be boisterous, but should improve Thursday into Friday.

Coast from Cape Blanco to Cape Flattery

Today and Wednesday – North winds 10-25 knots with higher gusts to 30 or so

Thursday – North Winds 10 – 20 knots with higher gusts.  Winds should ease quite a bit after midnight

Friday – South winds 0-15 knots

Saturday – light West or SW winds to 10 knots

Seas -  Swell as high a 6 feet with up to 4' wind waves on top of the that from the NW subsiding starting Thursday to as low as 3 foot swell and 1' wind waves

Cape Blanco to San Francisco

Today – Gale warnings for high winds and Hazardous seas  between capes Blanco and Mendocino.   N winds 25-40 knots.  South of Cape Mendocino, N winds 10 to 30 knots with substantially less wind the further south you get.

Wednesday – Winds easing a bit to North 20-30 between the capes.    South of Cape Mendocino N winds 5-20 with more wind North and less wind South.   The NWS says there will be a light chance of thunderstorms as well J

Thursday - Saturday – for the entire area N winds 5-25 knots with the strongest winds transitioning to the Southern portion of the forecast area.   NWS says slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.

As usual the forecast calls for less wind the closer to land you are, and you can expect 10 knots less wind 10 miles and closer.

Seas  -  up to 13' between the capes with short period and steep often breaking faces.  As the winds back off the seas will also and it should be very noticeable by Thursday.  by the weekend things look downright mellow with 3' swell and as high as 3' wind waves. 

Fwd: Loch Lomond Marina and clipper cove In S.F.

From: Doug Lombard

Date: Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 3:33 PM
Subject: Loch Lomond Marina and clipper cove


Ahoy Coho cohorts

 As we wait out the Gale. I been doing some research. San Francisco looks Less busy than all the media hype according to Andy Turpin from the Baja ha ha.
He suggested two really good inexpensive options for staying in the bay. One is Clipper Cove anchorage in Sausalito bay protected not too far from the bridge, We might be able to  raft together and go visit the America's Cup races on one boat.
The other is loch Lamond marina which has a lot of availability and good rates you can call Betsy at 415-454-7228 Monday through Saturday 9 to 5.
Tell her you're with the Coho.

---Be cautious upon entrance, Mean lower Low water 4 feet!!!

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/local/113403963399129289951/about?gl=US&hl=en-US

Fairwinds and following seas,
Capt. Douglas B. Lombard
Founder Coho Ho Ho

Weather window from Newport OR

karl and doug suggest you check all available sources!

From: Brad Baker
Date: Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 3:01 PM
Subject: RE: Weather window from Newport OR


Supplementary weather for the Newport Oregon folks heading for SF.

If the weather models and the forecasters are to be believed The wind speeds
between Cape Blanco to Cape Mendocino should blow a gale today all the way
into Wednesday.   This isn't an exact science.  Case in point, I just
checked Buoy reports for both buoy # 46015 which is 15 NM west of Port
Orford (very near cape Blanco).  The wind is blowing 20 knots right now and
has been for the last 24 hours.  The wave height as been consistent at about
6 feet  at 10 seconds.     At Buoy 46022, which is 17 WSW of Eureka,  It's
currently blowing NNE at 8 knots.  over the last 24 hours it peaked at 21
knots at 8am this morning but otherwise has been blowing under 20 knots.
Interestingly the waves are hovering at about 10 feet but at only 8 seconds.
Both these buoys are near that 10 mile boundary where the wind should start
getting significantly stronger the further you get offshore.  The fact that
the waves are 10 feet at the very short period of 8 seconds in only 8 knots
of wind off Eureka tells me that there are a lot stronger winds somewhere
nearby (probably 20 to 30 miles out).   I think what we can take from this
is the winds are, and probably will remain, moderate closer to shore, but
the comfort level will still suffer with the sea state if you were out there
right now.  Combine that with the fact the models and the National Weather
Service predict the peak winds to be tonight and tomorrow it might be wise
to wait for a better weather window.

So, the models show a few things happening starting Wednesday.  The pressure
gradient should lessen and winds should moderate.  The area of strongest
breeze looks as though it will migrate North to, wouldn't you know it, right
off Newport Oregon.   If the Model and the forecasters are to be believed
things point to the window looking better starting Wednesday afternoon.  I
suspect things won't be the most comfortable initially.  Even though the
strongest winds are now off Newport the wind speed shouldn't exceed 25 knots
on Wednesday with seas to 8 or 9 feet.    Things look to moderate more on
Thursday likely staying under 20 knots.  I suspect conditions will fluctuate
and it will make a substantial difference based on how close you decide to
stay from land.  20 miles or more out and the top wind speed could reach as
high as 25 knot at any given time on the trip to SF.  Closer than 10 miles
in and perhaps 15 knots might be the max you see.  As I said before, not an
exact science.  What you can rely on is that the winds will blow what they
are blowing where you are.  How's that for a deep intelligent statement.
There is the potential winds could actually get significantly lighter than
the maximums I just cited.   It's fairly complex but if the inland low
drifts more offshore the wind could shut all together in places over late
Thursday and Friday.   So if at some point you end up in no wind and
confused seas, I'm sorry, you've been warned and may you have an iron
stomach.

I wish I could be more precise, but I'm not that smart!  If you leave
sometime past midday Wednesday I think the winds will stay 25knots and under
(I hope).  Since you are in Newport you should be able to get the NOAA radio
reports for the most up to date forecast and I recommend you check those
prior to leaving.    As the winds decrease the sea state will get better but
will still likely be relatively short period chop.  The best news is the
winds should be with you most if not all the way (Knock on wood) to SF and
you should get some good surfs in.  I hope this helps.

Brad

Weather Brief and Boat locations August 19, Monday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 19 - since most of the boats are holed up in port waiting for a weather window before proceeding, i've had fewer location updates.  I'll update on the blogsite as i get more responses today:  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - in Eureka waiting weather window
sv Non Sequitur - reported in Coos bay yesterday

sv Dawn Treader - in Newport yesterday - heading for Coos Bay

sv Unleashed -  in Eureka waiting weather window
sv Moments - called in 11:45 today - Still in Westport, waiting weather, maybe leaving wednesday.  Adam said some other cruising boats were heading out this morning, hoping to go far out and get around the low.
sv Ohana - in Newport waiting weather window
sv French Leave - Tacoma (they have retired for now, and will no longer be listed by request)

I will email Brad and ask for a updated weather brief for Newport to San Francisco, specifically when to look for a break in the weather that might offer a good passage. but, see the note below

NOAA Marine Forcast Links:
Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout:
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=pzz081&syn=pzz080
Cape Lookout to Point St. George:
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=pzz082&syn=pzz080
Point St. George to Point Arena:
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=pzz083&syn=pzz089
Point Arena to Point Conception:
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=pzz084&syn=pzz089

Lee Chesneau's Marine Weather
(scroll down for eastern Pacific)   http://www.marineweatherbylee.com/

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker
Date: Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 8:19 AM
Subject: August 19 weather

High pressure is the dominant weather feature all along the coast with variation on North winds for the entire forecast area, excluding the Strait of Juan de Fuca which will have diurnal winds potentially to small craft warning strength in the central strait late afternoon and evenings.    The weather pattern with stronger pressure gradients between Cape Blanco and Mendocino is in place.  I did a quick check of buoy reports and winds are blowing a steady 20 knots about 15 miles off the coast.   Not too bad, but the speeds will likely pick up today and tomorrow and the relax as the high pressure retrogrades further offshore with an upper level trough predicted to replace the high pressure off the Oregon and Washington coast starting Thursday.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

National weather service is predicting small craft Westerly winds in the evenings Today – Thursday in the late afternoons and evenings to 25 knots.  My gut feeling is the winds will be less, but be prepared

Coastal waters all the way to Cape Blanco (this is a little different area then in the past)

Today – Thursday N to NW winds should prevail from 10 – 25 knots, expect some diurnal pattern with stronger winds afternoon and evening.  Winds will be strongest in the Southern half of this forecast area.   Sea state, West to NW swell up to 7 feet with wind waves to 4 feet

Cape Blanco to Cape Mendocino

Gales Today into Wednesday.  Winds speeds blowing up to 35 knots with gusts to 40.   Waves predicted to max out at 14' with a 9 second period.

Winds should be about 10 knots slower within 10 miles of the coast between the capes.   

Winds should lesson Starting on Wednesday on through the rest of the week, to below 20 knots by Thursday.

Cape Mendocino to SF

Today – Tuesday NW winds to 30 knots in the northern half of the forecast area, with lighter winds to 25 knots in the southern portion.  Within 10 miles of shore the winds should be substantially less, especially once you are well away from the cape.

Wed – Thursday NW winds to 20 in the North half, light winds to SE winds to 10 knots in the South half

Seastate, NW swell to 8 feet at 10 seconds

Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 18, Sunday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August  18

sv Journey - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - Departed Newport this morning

sv Dawn Treader - Leaving Newport his morning.  Crew from French Leave - Ron and Joyce - have joined the boat.  Update 14:00 - they left this morning, going 17 miles out, heading for Eureka, but might duck in to Coos Bay if the weather turns bad.  They have a Tuna rig out.

sv Unleashed - in Eureka, watching weather
sv Moments - Adam called in.  They are in westport leaving south on monday
sv Ohana - in Newport.  Tacked in from 70 nm offshore
sv French Leave - reported in Tachoma

and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker

7:53 AM

The forecast from yesterday seems to be verifying and there are no real changes today.  I suppose the most significant difference is that the National Weather Service text forecast has upped the wind strengths for the offshore waters south of Cape Blanco and have issued a Gale warning through at least Tuesday.  My forecast from yesterday already included winds to 35 knots which they are now forecasting.  There will be higher gusts and it is possible sustained winds could reach 40 at the peak in these areas.   The models continue to show the gradients loosening up starting Wednesday evening and it looks as though there will be a good weather window in the second half of the week,  with brisk but hopefully not too brisk Northerly winds.    I'm beginning to buy in to this scenario as I see consistency from run to run in the models. 

Because of the variability up and down the coast I've broken up the areas a bit more.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

Light to moderate onshore flow through Thursday.  Expect a diurnal cycle of lighter winds early morning to early afternoon building in the late afternoon and peaking in the evening.  Wind speeds will range from 5 to 20 (perhaps 25 on Monday night)

Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon

Light Southerlies to 10 knots today, transitioning to N – NW winds over the nighttime hours to 15 knots (stronger northerly the further south you are)

Mon – Wed  Diurnal cycle to the winds with the strongest winds being evening beforemidnight.  Speeds will vary from 5 knots to 25 knots with the cycle.  Winds will be strongest in the southern portion of this forecast area.  

Sea state West to NW swell 5 to 6 feet. Look for the wind waves to get as high as 4 feet in peak winds. and be more from the NW to N direction.

Newport Oregon to Cape Blanco

National Weather service has issued small craft warnings through at least Tuesday (I suspect they will extend into Wednesday).  Winds are likely to be diurnal in nature here as well.

Today N to NW winds to 15 morning and early afternoon rising to as high as 30 knots this evening.

Mon-Tues N to NW winds 15 to 30

Wednesday N to NW winds 10 to 20

Sea state the underlying swell should be light at up to 5 feet the real story are the wind waves which will reach as high as 7 feet and will be confused with short wave periods.

Cape Blanco South

Gale warnings in effect through Tuesday for waters beyond 10 miles out.  Diurnal winds.  Winds are also forecast to be lighter if you stay within 10 miles of the coast.  Figure about 10 knots less than the numbers below.

Today N to NW winds 20-30 with higher gusts

Mon – Tuesday N to NW winds 20-35 with higher gusts

Wednesday N to NW winds 20-30 easing to 10-20 through the day

Longer term Thursday and beyond it appears the winds will still be out of the North but perhaps peaking at 20 knots as opposed to 35.

Sea State Full on washing machine action with steep and at times breaking waves to 11 feet through Wednesday.

Message from Unleashed and storm building

from sv Unleashed:

  "We are in Eureka, CA.  There is a storm building so we don't know when we will continuing onto San Francisco. "

FZUS56 KEKA 172220

CWFEKA

  COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA

  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA

  300 PM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA AND OUT 60 NM

  PZZ400-180400-

  300 PM PDT SAT AUG 17 2013

SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS

  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD

  AS THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CALIFORNIA INTERIOR STRENGTHENS.

  BUILDING WINDS AND STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS WILL RESULT THROUGH

THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER

THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH OCCASIONAL GALE

FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

 

for more details, please visit below link:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KEKA.html

-- 

Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 17, Friday

Karl report:

Locations as i know them August  17

sv Journey - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - in Newport
sv Dawn Treader - last reported in Greys Harbor yesterday
sv Unleashed - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Journey "Glad to be on land"
sv Moments - in Westport "burned diesel for a while, waiting til monday to head south"
sv Ohana - 40 nm offshore off Seaside OR, heading for Newport
sv French Leave - "... is in Port Angeles, and is retiring from this effort after two successive nights 14 and 15 August) of unpleasant offshore conditions.  Ron Costi and Joyce Smith are enroute via car to Newport, where they will join Dawn Treader as additional crew for at least the Newport - Eureka leg.  They heard about Jim Lussier's and Jeff's legendary culinary capabilities and caught the next thing on four wheels headed south."

and now, Brads Weather Information:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Sat, Aug 17, 2013 at 9:36 AM
Subject: Weather

No real changes to the forecast with the overall pattern being high pressure building offshore.    There is indication that the Northern boundary of the high pressure ridge will be off the Washington coast.   Looking at the National Weather Service discussion the forecasters talk about week upper level troughs brushing the area.   I think this means the conditions off the Washington coast will be changeable wind direction wise, but not excessive staying below 15 knots, and there will be drizzle fog and rain at times.  The rest of the forecast area should switch to a more Northerly pattern with stronger winds building South of Cape Blanco as the pressure gradient increases between the High pressure offshore and the inland low pressure.  Looking at the most recent GFS grib file the gradients don't appear to be quite a tight indicating perhaps a little less wind then forecast but don't count on it.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

The National Weather service is going with a bit stronger onshore flow than predicted yesterday with West winds 10-15 today building to 10-20 tonight.  Having done almost 30 Swiftsure races I can tell you that you need to expect just about anything in the Strait.  It will be calm at times punctuated by Westerly pushes.  The good news is there are NO weather features that would indicate a gale.  So expect winds up to 20 knots out of the West through Wednesday punctuated by No wind.

Washington and Oregon Coast North of Cape Blanco

Today:  North of Newport Oregon I'm going with West winds to 10 with perhaps a more southerly direction closer to shore.   For South of Newport starting out light to 10 from the West switching to N – NW and building to as high as 15 especially as you get nearer Cape Blanco.  Winds get lighter the closer you get to the coast especially within 10 miles

Sun-Tues:  Newport North,  winds from Variable directions 0-15 knots, with the likelyhood being  a more consistently North wind direction the closer you get to New port.  South of Newport N winds 10-25 knots

Sea state Today to Wednesday:   for North Portion, Swell 2 to 5 feet at 10-11 seconds from the West and wind waves 0 to 2 feet.   South portion swell 2 – 3 feet at 10 – 11 seconds from the west today.  And as you might imagine shifting to the NW building to as high as 7 feet at 8-10 seconds.

Oregon and Northern California Coast South of Cape Blanco

It looks as though the strongest winds will be between Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino,   If the current model hold true the peak with be Monday and Tuesday.   The National Weather Service text forecasts say (and the gfs grib agrees) that the winds will be lighter closer to shore within 10 miles.

Today:  N to NW winds to 10 knots this morning building to as high as 20 tonight (higher gusts)

Sunday – Wednesday:  N  to NW winds 20-35 with higher gusts for waters 10 miles and further out.  For 10 miles and further in expect N – NW winds 5 -20.

Sea state will be a "washing machine"  from the NW with steep short period waves building with the wind.  NOAA says the wave height will reach as high as 12 feet at the peak for the offshore waters.  For the inshore waters, though the wind will be less you will still have a washing machine with waves to 10 feet.

The Longer Term shows conditions moderating by Thursday, but still blowing out of the N to 20 knots.  It's still too far in the future to trust this forecast but it is looking promising that the winds will mellow a bit.

location of sv Moments and sv Journey

From a phone call received 13:00 friday august 16

sv Moments is in Neah Bay, going to Grays Harbor tomorrow

sv Journey is off Crescent City, CA.  There is no room in the harbor because of the legacy tsunami damage, so they are heading to Eureka

Location of sv Unleashed

sv Unleashed is about  30 miles north of california/oregon border, about 6 miles off-shore at 08:58 this morning August 16

Coho Ho Ho Rally Information for August 16, Friday

Karl report:

Locations as i know them August  16, friday 11:27 am

sv Journey -  from Lee: "spent Wednesday  night at Florence.  He's at 43.45.58  124.15.04, motoring in dense fog, light seas, off Reedsport headed to Cresent City.  He will hole up there waiting for the winds to shift to the NW"
.
sv Non Sequitur - 8:03 am today: Due west of Columbia River basin about 20 miles out.  Seas calm no wind.

sv Dawn Treader - Grays Harbor Last night (wednesday night).  encountered 20kts South wind, 4-6 seas night before, died off after 3 am.  watching weather before heading out

sv Unleashed - (they were in Newport yesterday)

sv Moments -

sv Ohana - at 21:00 aug 15, was in the strait of Juan De Fuca approaching Clallam

sv French Leave - turned back off Tatoosh night before last, went to Neah Bay to re-group

and now, Brads Weather Information:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Fri, Aug 16, 2013 at 9:01 AM
Subject: Weather for August 16

Just a few tweaks to the overall weather forecast for today.  The overall pattern is pretty much the same with the low pressure trough off the Coast dissipating as High pressure builds from off shore.  the biggest difference is the models show the trough lingering a bit longer in the Northern part of the forecast area from mid Oregon on up.  The net result is the Northerly winds North of Cape Blanco will be a bit slower to fill in and participants in this area will likely experience light southerlies or no wind at all.   Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your disposition) the strong NW winds and associated building seas from Cape Blanco South are still very much in the forecast.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

Variable winds to 10 knots today, possibly changing to west winds to 15 knots tonight.   For Saturday through Tuesday it looks like you can expect a diurnal cycle of lighter winds in the early morning building to as high as 20 knots (likely lower though) in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Washington and Oregon Coast North of Cape Blanco

I wouldn’t be surprised if you have a whole lot of nothing today and tomorrow, but the gradients do show the possibility of Southerly winds to 10 knots.  The exception being the Southern portion of this area where the N winds will likely start to build later Saturday as you get nearer to Cape Blanco.  For Sunday, Monday and Tuesday it will depend on where you are.  If you are further South the North winds will fill sooner.  If you are off the Washington Coast you may not see the transition until Monday.  Keep in mind this is a FORECAST only.  Sometimes (some may say often) the weather does not do what the models and the really smart meteorologists predict.  It is possible that the transition will happen sooner.  When the change over does happen there is likely to be a relatively sharp increase in the NW winds to perhaps 15 or 20 knots until it settles in.  The predicted average wind speed for the Northerlies ranges from 5 to 20 knots over this area.  Sea state forecast is a West swell 3-5 feet at 8 to 10 seconds.  Wind waves ranging from 0-3 feet depending on the wind conditions.

Southern Oregon and Northern Californian Coast Cape Blanco South

Light winds today transitioning to the North late and starting to fill.  On Saturday the transition should be in full force as the High fills and the inland low increases as well.  Expect N to NW winds to 25 knots by Saturday evening with Higher gusts.  The gradient should put the higher winds further offshore and lighter nearer the coast.  If you are within 10 miles you can expect 5 to 10 knots less.  For Sunday through Tuesday N to NW winds 20-35knots with higher gusts.  Within 10 miles of shore (except the capes which offer no protection) wind speeds should be about 10 knots less blowing in a range from 15 to 25.  This time of year these Northerly winds become more diurnal as the inland low fluctuates with heating and cooling as the days get shorter.  Strongest winds will be afternoon and evening with the lightest conditions occurring after midnight into the morning hours or at least that’s what supposed to happen.  Sea state forecast is West swell to 4 feet at 11 seconds today .  NW waves to 7 feet at 8 seconds on Saturday.  NW waves 11-12 feet at only 8 to 9 seconds Sunday through Tuesday.

For those who are inclined to wait out the strong winds and seas in the Southern Oregon N. California, perhaps in Coos Bay, the long range models do show the Pattern easing a bit starting Late Wednesday of next week.   Beware though that a forecast this far out is always suspect and subject to change.

Brad

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Coho Ho Ho Rally Info

Boat location reports and Weather will be posted here.

These entries will be updated daily as new information comes in.
learn more about the Coho Ho Ho on our website:  http://www.cohohoho.com