Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Brads Weather brief August 24 Sunday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather report combined 0900 pdt August 24, 2014

 

Good morning Fleet.  I have to keep it short this morning as I failed to get up early enough and the family has plans for today.  I can tell you its beautiful weather this morning here in Seattle.  In other news a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck N. California this morning near Sonoma.  It was a shallow quake, therefore fairly violent.  Reports are still coming in of course, but it looks like no deaths, though the wine industry may have taken a bit of hit.

 

The weather forecast has remained consistent.   The high pressure offshore is forecast to weaken while the thermal low move a bit west starting late Monday.  The Northerly winds will remain strong today and Monday from just North of Blanco extending down to near Mendocino.  There will be a shift late Monday as the winds will get lighter South of Blanco and the strongest wind field shifts a bit North before it too moderates come Thursday.  The wind and seas will be worst around Cape Blanco initially and then Cape Blanco and extending North Tuesday into Wednesday.   Wind off the Washington coast will be mellow during the 4 day forecast period blowing 0 -15.

 

Forecast:

 

WA coast – Light winds to 15 from the N.  Seas 3-5 feet from the W to NW.  wind waves 2' or less.  This forecast holds Today through Thursday.

 

Oregon and Northern California Coast

 

Today

 

Columbia River to Newport – N wind 5-15 gusts to 20, Seas, combined wind waves and swell to 6' at 7 seconds from the NW.

 

Newport to Cape Mendocino – N wind 10 – 30 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, combined seas from the N at 11' at 8 seconds mixed with a 2-4' swell from the S at 15 seconds.  Remember that when wave height is forecast this is an average number.  There are always larger waves at times.  And you may have noticed that they come in sets.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW wind 5 – 25 with gusts to 30.  More wind in the North portion and more than 10 miles offshore.  Remember there is always the possibility for fog pretty much anywhere on the coast.  Seas 6-8' from the N with a shorter period combined with 4' swell from the S with a long period.

 

Monday August 25

 

Columbia River to Newport – N wind 10 – 25 with higher gusts possible.  Strong winds will be closer to Newport.    Seas Combined seas to 7 ' at 7 seconds from the NW.

 

Newport to Mendocino – N wind 10 – 30 with gusts to 35 possible.  Seas, combine seas from the N to 10' at 8 seconds mixed with 2-4' swell from the S at 15 seconds.

 

Mendocino to SF – Starting to mellow out, N to NW winds 5-20.  More wind in North half more than 10 miles offshore.  In other areas it may get variable.   Seas 6-8' short period seas from the N. and 5' long period swell from the South.

 

Tuesday August 26

 

Entire Oregon Coast – N winds 10-25.  Strongest winds at Cape Blanco and starting to extend North.  Seas, Combined waves from the N 5-7'.   South and SW Swell to 2' at 15 seconds.

 

Northern California – N winds 0 -15.  It is possible there will be variable directions but should be light.  Seas Left over slop from the North 7' at 8 seconds.  South to SW swell 4' at 15 seconds.

 

Wednesday August 27

 

Oregon Coast – N wind 5-20 with strongest winds Cape Blanco to Newport.  Winds will subside during the day.  Seas, wind waves from the N. to 5', S to SW swell 2' at 15 seconds.

 

Northern CA – Mostly N winds forecast not to exceed 15 knots.  I imagine there will be a whole lot of nothing at times.  The N wind waves should be about 5' with an impressive 5' Swell at 16 seconds forecast.

 

Thursday August 28

 

For entire Oregon and N. CA coast winds are forecast to not exceed 15 knots, mostly from the N., but I expect variability, especially south of Mendocino where there could be light W and SW winds.  Seas should be mellowed out by now with the exception of the pesky south Swell which should still be running at 3-5' in the N. CA waters.

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations and more August 24, Sunday

this is what i have for today

on Sunday aug 24, Morris Adams on s/v Impulsive posted:  We've decided to stay another night and will leave San Francisco early Tuesday morning.  We sent our crew home today so it's just Deb and I the rest of the way to San Diego.

Amy Arroyo on s/v Millie J posted:  We are in SFM slip 241 until Monday. Come an visit anytime

s/v Velvet Sky posted:  Millie J,  We have a recommendation from a couple that has been there before. Fortman marina on Alameda. Safe nice and not so expensive. Let us know if you check it out.

Doug Lombard posted:  Berkeley Marina is virtually due east some old pilings to watch out for it but if you take a straight shot from the San Francisco bridge center I believe it's 76° but doublecheck on your chart very wonderful nice place to hang out you do have to take a bus to get groceries

Mike Beste posted:  Only 50 cents a foot, (at berkeley marina?? ed.) very affordable. Last year a bunch of us rolled in there. Showers available but bring quarters. Marina is run by parks department and won't have any. Berkeley yacht club is right there, you should be  able to sign in as a guest and take advantage of the cheap drinks and food service ...great view as well.  Train station very close @ maybe  a half mile ... 25 hours to union station seattle.

Roy Numan posted:  Kevin has had recommendations for Berkely. 50 cents/ft. Fuel $4.80/gal. 

5:43 pm saturday Morris Adams posted:  Hi all. Doug asked me to let you know that San Francisco Municipal marina is where we are staying. Millie J is also staying there. They have been very accommodating and it's within walking distance to Fishermans Wharf.

karl

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Weather Brief August 23 Saturday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 0930 August 23

 

This forecast is consistent with yesterday.  There are some changes in store for the latter part of the 4 day forecast.   Currently the pacific high pressure should provide Northerly breeze all along the coast, strongest where it interacts most with the thermal low generated from land heating in inland California.   The GFS model has been consistent in showing a change come the Tuesday Wednesday time frame.  The pacific high is forecast to weaken while the thermal low extends over and into the waters off of Northern California.  Initially this will move the strongest wind Northward eventually to Cape Blanco all the way to the Columbia River by late Tuesday.  If what the GFS model is currently showing in the long term holds true the winds along the entire coast will go quite light as a ridge extends diagonally from the pacific to over the Pacific NW and a weak thermal trough sits off the California waters centered just off San Francisco.  The end result will be not a lot of gradient and it is possible if not likely that there will be light Southerly winds perhaps from Mendocino to SF.

 

Currently there are two Hurricanes and a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific waters off Mexico.  This will generate ocean swell coming from the South into our forecast area.  This swell could reach as high as 5'.

 

I think the fleet is all south of The Strait of Juan de Fuca, so I'm going to discontinue forecasting there.   However over the next four days the forecast is pretty much the same with light winds in the morning possible building westerly winds in the afternoon and evening peaking at 25 max.

 

Here is the four day forecast

 

Today August 23, 2014

 

WA and N. Or Coast to about Lincoln City – N. Wind 5 -15 building in the evening to as high as 25 kts.  Seas, W. swell 5' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 3'. 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Windiest between the capes where it will blow to 30 knots sustained  from the North with higher gusts.  Between the capes the winds will be lighter to 20 kts 10 miles or closer to shore.   North of Cape Blanco winds will be in the 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.  Seas will be a mixed bag with the largest most confused waves between the capes where the forecast is for combined wind waves and swell from the North to 11' at 8 seconds with South 3' swell with a 15 second period thrown in.  North of Cape Blanco the waves should be more in the 5'-7' range.  The south swell should extend into this area.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with the strongest winds in the northern portion of this area.  Closer to shore the winds will be lighter and possibly even calm winds.  Fog is more likely closer to shore.  Seas NW swell 6-8' at 8 seconds with a S. Swell 3' at 15 seconds.

 

Sunday August 23, 2014

 

WA and N. OR – N to NW wind 5-20 with gust to 25 possible.  W swell to 6' with wind waves to 4'.

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Pretty much a repeat of yesterday with the exception that it looks as though the winds will start to moderate a bit starting in the evening down to 25 knot max winds or less.  Seas will be the same

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with gusts to 30 and even higher at times.   As I've mentioned before it can kick up for no apparent reason in these waters often for a short duration.  Strongest winds will be in the North portion.  Southern portion and closer to shore should be lighter all the way down to 0 kts at times.  Foggy in some areas.  Seas NW Swell 5-10 ' (larger NW swell closer to Mendocino) at 9 seconds with a S swell 3' at 15 seconds.

 

Monday August 24

 

WA to N OR – N to NW wind 5-15 with gusts 20 .  W swell to 5' with wind waves to 3'

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – N to NW winds 10-25 knots.  Strongest winds centered around Cape Blanco.  Seas, as I'm sure you have found out by now higher gusts are possible if not likely.  The Seas are forecast to be a fun compilation of combined NW wind waves and swell to 10' with an 8 second period. mixed with a S. swell and SW swell both 2-3 feet at 15 seconds.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – It will probably start out fairly windy in the North Portion to 25 kts, but will likely mellow out during the day with winds 15 kts or lower as the thermal low starts to push offshore and the Pacific high weakens.  The strongest winds during the day will be in the Northern zone near the Cape.  Winds nearer to SF could very well be light from inconsistent directions.   The forecast does call for fog in the zone 10 miles or closer to shore.  Seas combined swell 5-10' from NW at 8 seconds, starting to diminish.  Mix in a S and SW swell 3 to 4' with a period of 15 seconds.

 

Tuesday August 25

 

WA to N. OR – N to NW winds 5-20.  West swell 4' with wind waves to as high as 4' as well.

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Models show it mellowing out starting at Cape Mendocino and Moving N.  The strongest winds should be North of Cape Blanco for a change.  N to NW winds 5-25 kts.  With the strongest winds Cape Blanco North.  Overall the winds should be decreasing on the whole by the end of the day.  Seas will be the usual combined NW wind wave and swell to 8' with a southerly swell thrown in with a longer wave period of about 15 seconds.

 

Mendocino to SF – wind 0 – 15 kts mostly from a Northerly direction though it's possible you will see southerly closer to shore and later in the day.  Seas NW swell 4-6' at 9 seconds combined with S and SW swell to 4'.  Wind waves 3' or less.

 

Wednesday August 26

 

WA to No OR – N to NW winds 5-15.  West swell to 5' with wind waves 3' or less

 

Cape Blanco to Lincoln city – (note I changed the zone here) N to NW winds 10 – 25 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, Combined wind waves and swell 6-7 feet combined with a S Swell 3 to 4 feet at 15 seconds.  The wind and waves should be diminishing toward the end of the day.

 

Cape Blanco to SF – Variable direction to NW winds 0 – 15 knots with perhaps winds to 20 knots nearer cape Blanco.  From Mendocino South the wind direction is you guess, it could easily have a southerly component.  The seas will be chilling out with the largest seas in the Northern Portion.  We are looking at a NW swell 3-6' at 8 seconds and a South Swell to 4' at 15 seconds.  Oh I almost forgot, patchy fog, especially closer to shore.

 

Enjoy!

 

Brad

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014- Weather Brief August 22 Friday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather compiled 0900 PDT August 22

 

You may have noticed on some days the forecast comes out later.  Mon, Wed and Fri are my mornings to work out so I get started a bit later on the forecast. 

 

It's been very interesting this morning I woke up to a clear blue skies just before sunrise.   I went outside and there was a heavy dew.  In the hour or so since then a hazy low clouds have formed out of thin air.  The air must have cooled just enough for this to happen.  I suspect it will burn off quickly this morning.  This has nothing to do with you sailors so on with the forecasting stuff.

 

The large scale pattern remains to be relatively weak high pressure offshore with a thermal trough inland.  Producing primarily N to NW winds up and down the coast.  In the PNW the upper level low is departing east allowing the winds off the WA and N OR coast to switch back to the north.  The transition happened last night and early this morning along the coast.   The strongest pressure gradient does remain off the S. OR and N. CA coast primarily between the capes and is still forecast to increase a bit over the weekend.  The model continues to show a shift in the pattern starting Tuesday with the Pacific high migrating a little NE, the inland thermal low pushes a bit offshore.  It appears the net effect will be to initially move the strongest pressure gradient a bit North Tuesday and Wednesday and eventually the pressure gradients will lessen a fair amount for uncharacteristic light winds off the capes.  The models have been pointing toward this solution the last few runs.

 

Something of interest is the very active Tropical weather activity in the Pacific waters off Mexico.  There are currently three tropical storms!  One of those storms, "Marie" looks like it will become a major Hurricane over the next 3 or 4 days.   I suspect the reason we have SW swell in the forecast for the N. CA waters is these storms.   The ho ho fleet need not be overly concerned about these storms as they are not a threat to the waters along the US west coast.  The weather patterns and cooler water see to that.  The storms may interact with the larger scale pattern enough to actually shut off the breeze along the California coast and there will likely be a pesky south swell mixing the seas up.

 

On to the four day forecast.

 

Today August 22

 

SJDF – IS anyone still in the strait?  If not I'll stop bothering to do a forecast.  Wind 0-10 during the day builds to 5 – 20 afternoon and evening, all should be from some form of a Westerly direction.

 

WA to Central Oregon – N to NW wind 0-15 kts possible higher gusts.  Some of you probably had some drizzle last night.  Seas 4-6 foot swell from W to NW with wind waves 3' or less

 

S. OR to N. CA – Gradients will tighten up a bit starting this evening bringing small craft advisory winds with the potential for low end gales for parts of the forecast area.  N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts into the low 30's.  The strongest winds will be between the capes.   10 miles or closer to shore should have less wind especially as you get south of Crescent city.   As you get South of Cape Mendocino the gradients really relax and I wouldn't be surprised if boats in this area experience periods of calm.  Seas, NW swell at about 5' at 8 seconds, combined with S to SW swell 3' at 13 seconds and add wind waves starting at 5' building to 6 or 7'.  Maybe it's obvious, but the worst seas will occur where it's windiest.

 

Saturday August 23

 

SJDF – West wind 0-25.  How's that for covering my bases?  OK, it should be diurnal with building breeze afternoon and evening.

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 5-15, probably building a bit in the evening to about 20 max.  Higher guest always possible though.  Seas 4 to 5' swell from the NW at 7 seconds.  Wind waves to 4'.

 

S. OR to N. CA Windy between the capes at 20- 25 kts from the N to NW, gusts into the 30's.  Elsewhere the winds should be more in the 10-20 range.   As has been the case the winds will be lighter closer to shore between the capes.   Sea will likely be confused and challenging in the windiest areas.   Combined swells from multiple directions along with wind waves up to 10' will produce some odd combinations of waves, steeper seas and breaking at times.

 

Sunday August 24

 

SJDF – West winds 0-10 in the morning building 5-20 in the afternoon and evening.  Winds will be light at Cape Flattery perhaps building to 15 in the afternoon and evening.

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 10-20 kts, probably easing a bit to 15 kts in the afternoon and evening.  Seas NW swell 6' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 4'.

 

S. OR to N. CA – The pattern continues.  N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts in excess of 30.  Strongest winds between the capes and perhaps building a bit north of Cape Blanco, perhaps20 or 30 miles.  The strongest winds should start to migrate a bit offshore as well.   The winds south of Cape Mendocino should be quite a bit more mellow, especially closer to shore.   The S. Swell is forecast to build as well now to 4' at 13 to 15 seconds.  Combine with NW swell and wind waves to 10' and you have a not so fine mix of confused seas.  Conditions should be better closer to shore for both wind and waves between the capes.

 

Monday August 25

 

SJDF – Light wind building to 20 in the afternoon and evening from the West.  Lighter for the western 3^rd of the strait.

 

WA to Central OR – Winds 5-15 with gust to 20 except the southern portion of the forecast area where the winds will be stronger to 25 kts, especially toward the second half of the day.  Seas, NW swell 5' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 4'

 

S. OR to N. CA – I think the day may continue the pattern of windy between the capes, but will start to mellow out the second half of the day especially south of Crescent City.    So there will be a wide range of conditions over the forecasted area.  Winds 15-25 with higher gusts in the Northern part around cape Blanco and getting progressively lighter as you head South ranging from 0 – 20  The model does show quite a bit less pressure gradient closer to shore at the capes and certainly as you get south of cape Mendocino.   As you can imagine there will be a wide range of sea state as well.  The underlying swell will still have the S swell 4' at 15 seconds combine with a North swell to 9' at 8 seconds.   The wind waves will vary a lot and where its windy things are going to be pretty darn bouncy, with the potential for breaking waves.

 

Tuesday August 26

SJDF – I think I'm done forecasting this let me know if you are still going to be in this area

WA and Central OR – N wind 10  to 20 in the North half, N wind 15- 25 in the South half.  Overall the gradient's won't be super tight so it may end up being toward the lower end of those forecast speeds.  We will know more as we get closer to this date.  Seas look to be 5-7' NW swell with wind waves  2 to 5'.  You should also start to feel the S. swell as you get further south.

 

S. OR to N. CA  - the strongest gradients will be at Cape Blanco north and a little south, where it still could be potentially be blowing 25 kts with higher guest.  If you are within 40 miles of shore south of that area the winds will likely be light as the thermal low moves offshore.  You may even see some southerly component as you get more toward SF.    I'll fine tune this forecast as we get closer.  The Seas continue with more of the same with mixed swell.  Hopefully the seas will chill out with the lighter winds, though there will be left over slop. 

 

Looking longer down the road it does appear that the winds along the coast from mid Oregon South will moderate a lot with potential for calms.  Stay tuned.

 

Brad

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat Positions August 22 friday

(sorry, did not have internet yesterday to send out report... karl)

Andante, Abbey Normal, Mabrouka are all at Bandon. The talk is to let the weather pass Mendocino till Mon or Tues. 

Aprapos is leaving Coos Bay now after fueling. They're discussing their plans now, but may keep going.

Millie J:  at 8.22 friday 1026 we are at N39 52.4 W124 29.9 - about 30 miles offshore south of cape mendicino.  headed 176 at about 7.2 knots.  we hope to make enough easting to gybe later today and clear pt. arena tonight.  winds are 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 from NW.  pressure 29.94 hg.  patchy intermittent fog.  seas are 3-5 with 2-4 wind chop...seas are still confused.  cleared mendicino last night at 0400 with light wind and light seas. boat is sound and secure; crew is happy and healthy and looking forward to a beer in SF soon.

Abby Normal: at 43 43.162n, 124 22.285w, headed for Bandon
Apropos, 44 40.5n, 125 21.7w, continuing south
Andante, at 43 46n, 124 23w, headed for Bandon
Sonamara, 46 41.01n, 124 26.08w, headed for Newport
Namaste, 46 35.359n, 124 16.926w, headed for Newport


Yesterday Chris sent:

Hello fellow Coho-ers,  Just popping in to tell you that the Impulse and her crew of 4 (Doug, Cindy, Chris, and Dave) are underway, having departed Hayden Bay Marina in Portland, OR this morning at 0700.  We plan to cross the Columbia River bar, weather pending of course, on Saturday at mid-day timed with the High Slack Tide. 

We know we are several days behind the fleet, but have enjoyed hearing your stories and lessons learned so far.  Keep them coming.

We attempted to listen to SSB 4A this morning at 0600 from the marina, but heard nothing.  May have been interference in the inland marina, or simply out of range.  We hope to use SSB to communicate with you guys in upcoming days.  We would like to try 4A at 0600, 6A at 0615, or 8A at 0630.  Since we are further out we may need the higher frequencies.

Hope all your adventures are going well, and hope to meet some of you in SF, on the Baja, or elsewhere.  Cheers,  Chris

Yesterday Kaye sent:  

Good morning HoHo folks,   All is well with S/V Sonamara and crew. About 20 miles out and passing Columbia bar. Calm seas. Light winds. Colder today. We saw whales!   ~Kaye

Yesterday Steve sent:

Galatea at  41.18.375 N    124.20.620 W   At 2:30pm Thursday off Trinidad Head

Expect to round Cape Mendocino

at 1:00 AM Friday morning. Winds light, seas bumpy and mixed but riding well under main. Running 15 miles offshore. Not a boat insight. Clear and sunny. 

Thanks for the weather update this AM

Steve  SV Galatea.  

Yesterday: Morris Adams sent: 4:57 PM (18 hours ago)  Impulsive rounded Cape Mendocino at noon today staying just outside the buoys. Winds were 20 knots with 8 ft swells at 8 seconds from NW. Also 2 ft swells at 13 seconds from SW. Winds increased to 30 knots for 30 minutes and we were triple reefed. Over the next  couple hours the winds have dropped to under 10 knots so we're back to motoring. We should be in San Fran tomorrow afternoon. Yesterday Brad sent: At roll call this morning, 8/21/14, I received:

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014: Weather brief, August 21 2014, Thursday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather forecast compiled 0700 PDT August 22

 

Very little change in the forecast today, with offshore high pressure, an upper low forming over Washington today and tonight and a thermal low inland at N. California.  Today light southerlies should persist off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast with North winds further South from about Coos Bay onward.   The pressure gradients seem to back off a bit today off the capes but it appears the gradients will get stronger over the weekend in between Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino.  The Strait of Juan de Fuca continues to have onshore flow, with light to moderate Westerly winds in the forecast.

 

The strongest winds at the capes do tend to be diurnal and can be strongest in the afternoon and evening with the lightest winds in the morning hours.  A common strategy for cruisers is to shorten sail before dark regardless if the wind appears to be increasing.   This way if condition worsen the person(s) on watch won't necessarily have to disturb the off watch crowd making noise on deck while reefing, or asking for help.

 

Forecast:

 

Today August 21

 

SJDF – West wind 0 – 15 possibly building to as high as 20 in the evening

 

WA Coast to Central Oregon – Light West to South winds 0-15 kts with moments of higher gusts possible.  Seas 4-6 ' from the west at 10 seconds, wind waves 2' or less.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW winds 10-20 knots (to 25 from Cape Blanco to Crescent City).  Mixed swell from the W and SW to 3' with wind waves from the N to NW to 5'.

 

Friday August 22

 

SJDF – West wind 5-15, again possibly building to 20 in the afternoon and evening.  As usual the gradient is lighter at Flattery for less wind there

 

WA to Central OR – Winds should clock around to N to NW by sunrise with wind speeds 5-15 with gusts to 20.  Seas, west swell 5' at 9 seconds.  Wind waves to 2'.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10 – 25 with gusts to 30.  Winds look to be building in the afternoon and evening hours.  The strongest winds will be between the capes.  The wind should be lighter within about 10 miles of shore except at the capes themselves.

 

Saturday August 23

 

SJDF – As the weather is forecast to become warmer in Washington the breeze will become more diurnal in the strait.  West wind 5-25 with the strongest winds occurring Central and Eastern strait in the afternoon and evening hours.  Western 3^rd of the strait - west wind 0-15 knots.

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 5-15 with gusts to 20.  Seas W to NW at 5', wind waves to 3'.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10-25 with gusts into the 30's.  Windiest between the capes.  Seas Mixed swell from NW and SW to 3 ' with wind waves to 7' from the N.   Less wind 10 miles from shore or closer.

 

Sunday August 24

 

SJDF – West wind  0 – 20.

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 5-15.  Seas NW swell 5' with up to 3' wind waves.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10-25 with gusts into the 30's.  Windiest between the capes.  Seas Mixed swell from NW and SW to 3 ' with wind waves to 7' from the N.   Less wind 10 miles from shore or closer.   The winds South of Cape Mendocino to SF should back off and not exceed 20 knots as the thermal low migrates a bit over these waters. 

 

Monday August 22

 

SJDF – West wind 5-25 with the strongest winds afternoon and evening hours

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 5-15.  Seas NW swell 5' with up to 3' wind waves.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10-25 with gusts into the 30's.  Windiest between the capes.  The wind may start to back off late as pressure gradients ease up.   Seas Mixed swell from NW and SW to 3 ' with wind waves to 7' from the N.   Less wind 10 miles from shore or closer.   The winds South of Cape Mendocino will be lighter not exceeding 20 knots on average.

 

Note:  In my experience the area from Cape Mendocino to SF,  the winds can kick up well beyond what is forecast.  Often times the duration is for a fairly short period.  I don't know why this is, but it best to be prepared for such an occurrence.

 

Brad

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014: Weather Brief, August 20 Wednesday

Coho Weather August 20 compiled at 0900

 

There are a few changes to the forecast this morning, however the large scale pattern remains the same with thermal low inland of N. CA combined with an entrenched pacific high, which will continue to produce moderate to strong northerly winds in the Southern Oregon, N. CA region.  The National Weather Service has issued a gale warning valid until Thursday evening for Cape Blanco to as far South as Crescent City for more than 10 miles out.  Small craft warning are issued all the way to Point Arena.   Not a lot new here as the wind continues to blow in this area.  This is not nearly as bad as it can get in these waters though.  The NWS forecasters actually call this moderate N. to NW winds.  It should be manageable for a well prepared boat with crew that have experience.  It will be bouncy with some breaking waves.

 

The changes to the forecast I spoke of, have to do with the Strait of Juan de Fuca (SJDF) and the waters off the Washington coast down to the central Oregon.  With an upper trough settling over the PNW and a forecasted weak cold front to pass through on Thursday, the WA interior will heat up a lot less than it has been.  The result should be less intense peak winds in the SJDF over the next four days.  Gradients should remain mostly onshore resulting in westerly winds when it blows, but there will be periods of light winds from random directions.  Though there will be some diurnal effect the peak winds will be more susceptible to other forces as the onshore pressure increases or decreases.  What I'm basically saying is if you are leaving the strait there is a good chance you will motor, but be prepared for some headwinds at times.  I believe the winds will stay under 20 kts during the next 4 days, and definitely much less much of the time.

 

For The WA and Oregon Coast the forecast now includes Southerly winds for Thursday into Friday till mid-day.   The culprit is a weak front passing through.  Wind speed and direction will vary depending on your location, but there is a good chance you will be bucking the wind for about a day and a half if you are travelling along WA or OR coast from about Newport North.  The wind speed will generally be light, under 10 kts, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are moments of stronger winds for some of you, perhaps to 15 with higher gusts at times.   I alluded to this in the past forecast and now the models show it more clearly and the National Weather service guys have also taken the bait as well and have included it in their forecast.  Oh yeah it will probably be cloudy at best, light rain and fog at worst.

 

Without further rambling here is the 4 day forecast

 

Today

 

SJDF  -  It's funny they changed the forecast while I was compiling this and now I'm re-typing.  West wind to 15 kts today, perhaps building tonight with potential to 25 kts tonight for central and eastern strait.  For western 3^rd winds under 15 kts initially from SE then potentially to the W.  It will very likely be quite light right at Flattery.

 

WA down to Central Oregon – note I moved this forecast area South a bit to about Newport – Wind N to NW from 5 – 20 knots with the potential of winds to as high as 25 knots from about Westport N.  Don't let this fool you though as it will be probably 15 or less or much of the area.  Seas NW swell 5-7' with wind waves 3' or less except to 5' north of Westport.

 

S. OR to N. CA – wind N to NW 15 – 30 with gusts to 35 kts.  Wind less within 10 miles of shore except at the capes.  Seas, swell and wind waves from the N 8' at 8 seconds mixed with a SW swell 2' at 14 seconds.  

 

Thursday August 21

 

SJDF – Wind 0-15 mostly from the W to SW during the day, possibly building to 20 for the evening for central and eastern strait.  For the western 3^rd expect light winds in general perhaps building from the west a bit in the late afternoon and evening, and oh yeah, drizzle.

 

WA to Central OR – Wind somewhere between W to SW to as high as 15 knots and as low as 0 kits.  High potential for drizzle, low clouds and or fog.  Seas, W. Swell 5 to 6'.  Wind waves generally 0 to 1'

 

S. OR to N. CA -  Windy at times to 25 kts from the N to NW. Higher gusts are likely.   I've mentioned this before, in this part of the world sometimes the conditions exceed what is expected from what the models show and the weather service forecasts.  So, be prepared.  Seas, mixed swell to 3' from NW and SW with longer period.  Wind waves to 8' and they will be coming from the direction of the wind. 

 

Friday August 22

 

SJDF – On the whole I'm forecasting a pretty mellow day for Friday with winds likely to not exceed 15 kts and likely blowing at 0 kts at times.

 

WA to Central OR – Probably some lingering W to SW winds first half of the day 0-15 kits.  Switching to the NW to N by evening also 0 to 15 kts.   It is possible for some gusts to 20 in the evening hours, especially in the northern portion of the forecast area.   My forecast does contradict the NWS a bit, which is calling for only N to NW winds all day Friday.  Take your pick.  The good news is I think the drizzle will go away though.  Seas, W swell 5 – 7' at 10 seconds.  Wind waves 2' or less.

 

S. OR to N. CA – not much change here, wind 10 – 25 with gusts likely into the 30's.  Probably lighter closer to shore except at the capes.  Seas Mixed N Swell to 8' at 8 seconds and S. swell to 3' at 13 seconds.  Wind waves to 7'.  Sounds like fun!

 

Saturday August 23

 

SJDF – How about SW to W winds 0-15 for the entire strait.

 

WA to Central OR – N to NW winds 5-15 kts.  W swell to 5' wind waves 0 – 2'.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is also a S or SW swell mixed in to this area as well, though the NWS isn't calling for it.

 

S. OR to N. CA – N to NW 10 to 25 with higher gusts.  Yucky waves

 

Sunday August 24

 

SJDF – Mostly west wind 0-20.  Diurnal effect may be stronger as the weather should be improving inland with heating of the interior.

 

WA to Central OR – the Northerly looks like it will be building and could reach speeds as high as 20 kts.   For seas the NWS says NW swell to 5' and wind waves to 3'.

 

S. OR to N. CA – Read from the previous day.  That's the official forecast anyway.  The most recent GFS weather model shows the inland low migrating a bit offshore.  It's possible that the wind will be easing quite a bit especially closer to shore.  Too far out now to trust this, but I'll keep an eye.