Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 20th

Boat Locations:  http://wx.ocens.com/everon/tracking3.php?group=cohohoho

BlogPost Archive:  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com/

Brads Weather Message for August 20th

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather, August 20, 2015

 

Looking at the snap track map, with the exception of Athanor, all the participants are now South of Cape Mendocino.   My plan is to pass on weather info to the fleet to get them to San Francisco.  It looks as though the majority of you are almost there!   If any of you would like weather support beyond I highly recommend Rick Sheema who runs Weatherguy.com.   Rick is a sailor himself and does an excellent job with routing.   Rick is also an actual meteorologist as opposed to me who is…..well..a yacht broker.   Here is a link to his site:   http://weatherguy.com/tp40/Default.asp?ID=126449

 

Since it appears most if not all participants are South I'm going to provide one more forecast covering the entire area.  If I don't hear from any stragglers then I will confine the next few and final forecasts to the area south of Cape Mendocino.

 

Bottom line Is Northerlies prevail up and down the coast at various strengths.  Wind speeds should stay 30 knots or below for most if not all areas with lots below 20 as well.   This should hold through the weekend and into early next week.  The exception are the waters closer to the coast, south of Cape Mendocino where there are light southerly winds in the forecast over the weekend.

 

A fairly strong surge is in the forecast for the Strait of Juan de Fuca for today and tonight with 25-35 in the forecast for the afternoon and evening hours.  Onshore push should continue through tomorrow, then lesson a bit but still blow over the weekend.  The strongest winds today and tomorrow should be the central and eastern strait.

 

With the exception of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, conditions should make for some good sailing!

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 20

 

SJDF – Wests winds 10-25 rising to 25-35 in the evening for the Central and Easter Strait.  Wind waves 1-6'

 

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 10 -25 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, NW swell 8' at 9 seconds with wind wave 3-5'.

 

Newport OR to San Francisco – N to NW winds 10-25 with higher gusts possible.  Strongest winds near Cape Blanco.  For the most part winds will be on average 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Expect fog at times especially in the waters south of Cape Mendocino.  Seas,  NW swell 9-10' at 9 seconds with wind waves 1-5'.

 

Friday August 20

 

SJDF  - West winds 15-25 with wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – N to NW winds 10-30 with the strongest winds off the Washington coast.  Seas, NW swell 9' at 8 seconds with wind waves 3-6'

 

Newport to SF – N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts as high as 35.  Strongest winds between the capes.  About 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Fog is a definite possibility.    Winds south of Mendocino and close to shore should be relatively benign.  Seas, NW swell 10 to 11' at 9 seconds with wind waves 2-6'.

 

Saturday August 21

 

SJDF – W wind 0 – 25.  Light in the morning likely building in the afternoon and evening.  Wind waves 0-3'

 

Flattery to Newport – N winds 10-20 with higher gust possible.  Seas, 4-6' NW swell at 8 seconds with wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to SF – Forecast is for it to blow 30 from the NW  Near Cape Blanco with 10-25 elsewhere.  Seas should be running around 10' at 9 seconds from the NW  with wind waves 1-5'.  Cape Blanco area  likely to be a bit bumpier.  The areas south of Mendocino should remain under 20 knots and  actually quite light at times especially closer to shore.  Fog is in the forecast.

 

Sunday August 22

 

SJDF – West wind 15-25 knots, wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – More of the same N to NW wind 10-20 with higher gusts, Seas, NW swell 4-6' at 8 seconds with wind waves to 2-4'

 

Newport to SF – Moderating, N to NW winds 10-20 in the waters north of Mendocino.  Light winds to 10 knots from the South in the waters South of Mendocino.  Flog  possible if not likely.  Combined seas 4-7' from the NW

 

Monday August 23

 

SJDF – Current NWS forecast calls for 20-30 from the West. 

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 5-15 with gusts to 20.  NW swell 7', wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to  SF – NW winds 20 knots or less, N of Cape Mendocino.  NW 5-15 South of Cape Mendocino.  Seas, Swell 3-5' from NW with wind waves 1-4'.  May be foggy at times.

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Some Boat Reports:

From Matt Aug 19th 23:42:

Has been an awesome trip. No way to email way out there did basic inreach plan.  Just a few msgs to send each month.  Got a lot of tricky weather tho.

We played in the Gale for a bit, but the waves got bigger then reported and kept jibing us, tore a sail. Took to a line and cover in port orford. Then again winds differed from what was reported by noaa, weatherpassage and inreach and slammed us from the south around Mendocino cape.  Had to eventually motor to get closer to shore since weather wOuldn't cooperate with all reports. On the way motoring back to closer to see if we could duck away from the diseagreable wind our pulley for the water pump completely sheered off and had a fin Done sailing her to shore. now we are held up In fort bragg where there is one over worked machinist/mechanic to help us get it drilled etc. Soo guess its a break from the good times till parts come in so we can fix it ourselves.

Great Times so far, but weather hang been agreeing with reports so we are trying to track down the good stuff! 

Will have service for next few dats.  Can catch up during this time.  Hope to see you in san fran!

From Tera Shimada:

Hey All!

We are safe in Fort Bragg, CA, fixing a couple items that cropped up during the stretch from Port Orford to Mendocino. 

If all repairs go well, we will be departing for SF tomorrow. 

Can you send us the latest info on the SF party? Is it still going on? 

Thanks,

Tera

From Steve Lewis Aug 21 13:30

Berkeley yacht club rental:

Http://Www.berkekeyyc.org/rent 

Phone for rate quote 510 843-9292

Rented 5-10pm. But it is available in the afternoon 11-3.

Rates for boating non-profit.

$350 for 4 hr before 3pm.

Lorraine is the person in the office.

Steve

Alright, now stay with me: When we left, we had just enough fuel to make it to San Juan. And we are out of fuel.  - Captain Ron

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 19th

Boat Locations:  http://wx.ocens.com/everon/tracking3.php?group=cohohoho

BlogPost Archive:  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com/

Brads Weather Message for August 19th

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 19, 2015

 

My apologies for missing the forecast yesterday, I had a long one day trip to SF and back.  I'm back in the saddle this morning however. 

 

The large scale pattern seems to be following my previous forecast.  The pacific high has lost some strength and is a more oval shape flat on top and bottom extending out to the east and west.  Since it has weakened, the pressure gradients off Northern California relaxed a bit yesterday in today with the strongest wind field moving more offshore.  I do expect the wind to increase again mostly between the capes late tomorrow and into Saturday.  It should not be as strong as it was the day before yesterday, but still small craft warning strength.  Meanwhile, we do have an interesting set up in the waters off Washington and Northern Oregon.  Pressure gradients are tighter up here in the coastal waters.  It kind of the same situation that happens in N.  California, with inland heating up generating a thermal low and reasonable high pressure ridging offshore for stronger N. winds off the Washington coast today and tomorrow.  Again, not gales, but definitely in the small craft warning category.   The forecast calls for an upper level trough to brush the area here in Washington late Thursday and into Friday.  This will bring more clouds and possibly some rain into the forecast for the coastal waters, though it doesn't look like it will rain in Seattle. 

 

By in large N to NW winds will persist all along the coast from Cape Flattery to SF.  However, the models do show that as the pacific high retrogrades further west this coming weekend, the thermal low will extend out over the waters mainly Cape Mendocino and south.  This increases the chances for light to moderate southerly winds closer to the coast south of Cape Mendocino over the weekend.  In this pattern it is common also to have fog closer to the coast.

 

The Strait of Juan de Fuca will have a fairly strong onshore push starting this evening and lasting into Friday for stronger westerly winds probably exceeding 30 knots at times.  It looks as though the westerlies will let up a bit for the weekend but it will still be breezy at times.

 

For the long term forecast the current GFS Model has things being reasonably mellow along the coast early next week, with the strongest winds being North of Cape Blanco for once.  Stay tuned.

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 19, 2015

 

SJDF West winds starting at 10 knots building through the day up to 25-35 late tonight.   Wind waves starting out at 1' or so building to 4-6' once the wind gets cranked up.

 

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 15 to 30 knots.  More wind in the northern portion of the forecast area.  NW waves 7 to 12' at 9 seconds

 

Newport OR to San Francisco – NW winds 0-25.  More wind North of Cape Mendocino and further offshore.  The winds South of Cape Mendocino have a high probability of being light especially closer to shore.  Also the possibility of fog is fairly high especially closer to shore.  Seas 5-7' form the NW at 9 to 10 seconds

 

Thursday August 20

 

SJDF – West winds 10 knots in the morning building throughout the day to 20-30 with higher gusts in the late evening.  Wind waves 1-5' (bigger the windier it gets).

 

Flattery to Newport – NW winds 10-30 with less wind closer to the coast.  Fog is also a definite possibility.  Seas, NW swell 9 – 12' at 9 to 10 seconds

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30, with gusts to 35.   The strongest winds will be in the evening and between the capes and probably more than 15 or 20 miles offshore.  Patchy fog, especially in the morning hours is likely.  Combined seas to 8' at 9 seconds

 

Friday August 21

 

SJDF – West winds 10-25 with strongest winds in the afternoon and evening.  Should let up after midnight.  Wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25 knots, less wind closer to shore with fog possible.  Seas 7-9' at 9 seconds

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30.  Strongest breeze between the capes and further offshore.  Patchy fog possible.  Definitely getting lighter South of Mendocino and closer to shore.  Seas, 8 to 10' at 9 seconds from the NW. 

 

Saturday August 22

 

SJDF – West winds 0-25, 0 in the morning 25 in the evening.  Wind waves 0-4'

 

Flattery to Newport -  NW wind 5- 20, more wind the further South you go in this area.  Seas 5-7' from the NW.

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-25, with gusts to 30 knot.  Winds considerably lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Seas to  7-10' from the NW

 

Sunday August 23

 

SJDF – W wind 0-25 more wind in the afternoon and evening.  Wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25, seas 6-7' from the NW

 

Newport to SF – N to  NW winds 5-15 from Cape Mendocino North with S to SE winds to 10 knots south of Cape Mendocino.  There will be waves, mostly from the NW to 6'

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Brads (non) Weather Message for August 18th

Fleet,

 

I'm flying to San Francisco early this morning on a boat deal.  I had hoped to do weather while in flight but the in service internet is proving much to slow to check weather.  I hope to steel a bit of time later this morning to do a weather check.  If I do get a forecast out to you it will likely be abbreviated.    My apologies for the delay. 

 

Best

 

Brad

We have some boat reports!:

From Nutmeg Aug 19th, 07:18 hrs

Hello everyone. 

Nutmeg has made it to Neah  Bay. We motored here all the way from Seattle in calm waters, no wind, and sunny skies. We are going to leave to make the "big left" either late this afternoon or early tomorrow morning!

From Steve Lewis, Aug 19th, 07:39 hrs

Here are a few tips for boats coming to the Berkeley Marina:

·        The office is at the top of K dock.  They close at 4pm.

·        The only bus out here is the 51B.  For $2.10 you can take it downtown and catch BART, CALTrains, or another bus.  When you return to the marina, take the 51B Marina bus, not the 51B Amtrak bus—otherwise you will need to hike from the Amtrak station over the foot bridge to the marina.

·        If you are going to use public transport, buy a "Clipper" card for $3 then add money to it to pay for fares—it's good on most forms of transportation in the bay area.  You can buy them at Walgreens or other retail outlets (https://www.clippercard.com/ClipperWeb/map.do ). Clipper cards are accepted on BART, Caltrain, Muni, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit & Ferry and WETA (South San Francisco ferry).  Not only is it more convenient than cash, but you get a discount on the regular fare too.

·        You can walk into town using the foot bridge (not University Ave).  It's a short walk.

·        The Amtrak station is within sight of the Berkeley end of the foot bridge.

·        The marina has a small boat yard with a travel lift.  Berkeley Marine Center 510 843-8195.

·        Laundry is a 20 min hike around the marina from K-dock.

·        The Berkeley Yacht Club has Friday night races.

·        Showers are free.

·        There are three restaurants next to the marina (four if you include the Double Tree Inn restaurant).

·        Use BART to go into San Francisco. 

·        The CityPass discount ticket booklet seems like a good deal if you are going sightseeing in San Francisco.  It includes a 7-day pass for Muni bus, train, or cable car rides.  See http://citypass.com . 

From Aeolian:

We spent the night in Eureka.  Had a good nights rest after being in winds up to 35 knots two nights ago.  Now getting diesel and heading out again.

Jane
S/V Aeolian

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 16th

Brads Weather August 16th

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather August 16 2015

 

Looking at the boat position map this morning I see that we have North Star in Crescent City and two other boats currently off the Washington Coast.   Safe travels everyone!

 

The National weather service has either small craft or gale warning pretty much up and down the entire coasts from Cape Flattery to San Francisco.    The reason is an above normal Pacific high (1038 mb!) currently centered at about 44N, 146W.  This is a bit further to the East than the models were predicting a couple of days ago and the result should be moderate to heavy N to NW winds all the way.  The pressure gradients do become closer together (more gradient = more wind) from about Newport Oregon to just South of Cape Mendocino and the highest winds can be expected in these areas.   The model does have the high weakening a bit starting Tuesday and retrograding further to the West which should serve to moderate the conditions a bit, though the NW winds should continue to blow at some level through my forecast period.  The models hint late in the week and into next weekend an upper level trough will slide down out of the Gulf of Alaska and the pacific high will weaken further and retrograde even more west.  If this occurs the conditions should lighten more.  This is too far in the future for any confidence, but if it verifies should be a good window for safe travel in the Southern Oregon Northern California waters.   In the short term the winds should be strongest from now through Wednesday.  Because of the strength of the high and its position, strong winds will extend 300 miles or more out from the coast.  So sailing further offshore may not be the solution.  The pattern is such that more often than not there will be less wind closer shore, this will be especially true between Capes Blanco and Mendocino and South of Cape Mendocino to San Francisco, as the inland thermal low extend out over the water at times.  Also in this pattern the winds tend to be diurnal with stronger winds in the afternoon,  evening and very early morning hours.  Lighter winds typically occur just before sunrise until noon.  This is due to the thermal low deepening as the dessert is hottest and weakening as things cool down. 

 

That all said, my experience when sailing the offshore waters around Cape Mendocino, conditions can change quickly for no apparent reason.  One moment you can be motor sailing with relatively light winds and the next thing you know it will be nuking!   Best to stay prepared and have a plan for reefing.

 

For the Strait of Juan de Fuca we should have a reasonably strong onshore push today, then things are forecast to mellow a bit for Monday and Tuesday, before another stronger push on Wednesday and late into the week.

 

Now for the 4 day forecast:

 

Today

 

SJDF – West winds 10-25 knots, with the strongest winds in the later afternoon and evening hours.  The strongest winds should be central and eastern strait with things mellowing out as you reach Cape Flattery.  Wind waves 1-4 feet.

 

Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon – The NWS has issued small craft warnings for this entire part of the coast.  Small craft warnings mean that winds from 21 to 33 knots are expected.   So with that in mind I predict NW winds 10-25 knots, with stronger winds in the afternoons and evening.  Also you can expect the winds at the higher end of the range the further south you go in the forecast area.  Don't be surprised if you have gusty periods exceeding 25 knots.  Seas, NW wind waves 5-6' with a short period over a longer period 2-3 foot swell.

 

Newport to SF – Windy with Gale force winds likely more than 10 miles off the coast, especially from Cape Blanco to well south of Cape Mendocino.  Gale force winds mean 34 to 47 knots.  Sustained winds in the windiest areas are likely to be around 30 to 35 knots with gusts to 40 knots.   Seas 12 to 13' at 9 seconds.  Remember the height forcast is for the average of the tallest 1/3 of the waves.  Individual sets can and will be bigger, up to twice as big.  Closer to shore (10 miles or closer) the NWS says small craft warning meaning 21-33 knots.

 

Time for a short story.  My wife sailed down the coast back in 2005 helping some friends on a Hallberg Rassy 46.  The forecast was almost identical to this one.  Just south of Cape Mendocino they experienced sustained winds of over 50 knots for about 12 hours.  They did fine, flying only the staysail.    They were about 100 miles off the coast.  While they experienced 50 knots a buddy boat was about 15 miles off the coast and had about 20 knots sustained.  The point is forecasters don't always get it right and sometimes mother nature decides to do the unexpected.  There also can be a pretty good variance form in shore to offshore.   The best thing you can do is be prepared or wait for a lighter forecast.

 

Monday August 17

 

SJDF – West winds 0 – 20.  It will likely be light in the morning then potentially build later in the day and evening.  Wind waves 0-3'

 

Flattery to Newport - NW winds 15 -  25 knots with gusts to 30.  Strongest of the winds are likely to be late afternoon and early evening.  Seas, combined seas to 7'

 

Newport to SF – NW wind 20-30 with gusts to 40.  Seas to 12' at 9 seconds.  Less wind closer to shore and South of Pt. Arena.

 

Tuesday August 18 ……. Is it just me or is the forecast taking forever to read and or type?!

 

SJDF – Look like gradients will have gone offshore overnight and you could have light easterlies in the strait for the morning.  The easterlies should shut off by midday than switch to light to moderate Westerlies by late afternoon perhaps to 15 knots.  Wind waves 1' or less.  This offshore breeze means we will likely have a pretty warm day in Seattle on Tuesday, maybe 90 degrees.

 

Flattery to Newport – NW winds 10 – 20 with higher gusts possible to 25.  More wind closer to Newport OR.   Seas N to NW wind waves to 7' at 8 seconds over a 2' NW swell at a longer 13 second period.

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 15 – 25 with gusts  to 30.  Seas 10' at 9 seconds

 

Wednesday August 19

 

SJDF – West winds 5-15 in the morning rising 20-30 in the afternoon and evening wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – NW winds 15 – 30.  Seas to 8' from the NW

 

Newport to SF – NW wind 15 – 25 with gusts to 30, NW seas to 10' at 10 seconds

 

Thursday August 20

 

SJDF –  West wind 10-30 with strongest winds afternoon and evening.  Stronger winds Central and eastern strait.  Seas 2-5' wind waves

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 15 – 25 knots, NW waves to 8' at 9 seconds

 

Newport to SF – NW wind 15 – 30 knots, seas to 12' at 10 seconds.

 

Finally I'm done!

 

Brad

 

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 14th

Brads Weather:

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather report August 14, 2015

 

Today is the transition day.  An upper level low that has been parked off the coast for better part of week is making its way to the NE and will have passed over Western Washington by Saturday morning.  This low will bring rain and clouds to us here in Seattle.  There will be some lingering showers in the offshore waters as well for Friday and perhaps Early Saturday.  With the upper level low departing the  thermal low will develop inland in Northern California.  This combined with the strengthening Pacific High will produce NW winds all along the West Coast of the US. The pinch point for strongest winds will be offshore of Northern California and Southern Oregon.  Because the pacific high is so far offshore the strong NW winds will extend out several hundred miles offshore.  In fact the strongest winds will likely be 60 to 150 miles offshore of Cape Mendocino.  With this scenario relief can often be found by staying close to the coast.   The thermal low will extend out over the closer waters at times reducing the pressure gradients there.  A safe bet is 10 miles or closer to shore in the areas from Cape Blanco to Point Arena should have about 10 knots of wind relief.   It does look as though this stronger NW wind pattern will continue for the foreseeable future and certainly well into next week.

 

For the Strait of Juan de Fuca we currently have a pretty good onshore push going, which should continue through Saturday.  The forecaster are saying the Westerly winds will moderate Sunday and early next week in the Strait.

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 14, 2015

 

SJDF – Small craft warnings issued – W winds 15-25 rising to 20 – 30 tonight.  Strongest winds Central and eastern strait.  Wind waves to 2 – 6 feet.  Small chance of thunder storms.

 

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – Winds from the SW veering to the W or NW come evening 5-20 knots.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' at 8 to 9 seconds, wind waves 1-4'.  Showers possible

 

Newport OR to San Francisco – W to NW winds 5-30…….ok yes covering a lot of basis here.  The winds South of Cape Mendocino will be stronger and those stronger winds should progress Northard overnight.  It should be relatively mellow North of Mendocino today, but by tomorrow it will be cranking up.  Seas, combined seas to 4-8' with a short period

 

Saturday August 15, 2015

 

SJDF – West wind 10-25 with the wind actually forecast to start easing late in the day.  Wind waves 2-5'

 

Flattery to Newport – W to NW wind 5-20 knots,  Seas NW swell to 5' at 9 seconds with wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 20-30 with gusts as high as 40.  Stronger winds 60 miles or more offshore of Cape Mendocino with gusts to 45.  Lighter winds perhaps 10-20 knots, 10 miles or closer to shore.  Combined seas 9 to 13' from the NW.

 

Sunday August 16, 2015

 

SJDF – W winds 5-15 with gusts to 20 possible.  Wind waves 1-3'

 

Flattery to Newport – For most the area NW winds 5-15 knots, with higher gusts, the exception being further South, closer to Newport where the winds will likely be stronger 10-20 knots building to as high as 25 knots in the evening.  Seas NW swell 4-6' at 9 seconds wind waves 1-4'.

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 20-30 with gusts as high as 40.  Stronger winds 60 miles or more offshore of Cape Mendocino with gusts to 45.  Lighter winds perhaps 10-20 knots, 10 miles or closer to shore.  Combined seas 9 to 13' from the NW.

 

Monday August 17, 2015

 

SJDF – West winds 5-20 knots, lighter winds in the morning stronger in the afternoon and evening.  Wind waves 1-3'

 

Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon – NW wind 5-20, Seas 5' at 8 to 9 seconds wind waves 1-3'

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 20-30 with gusts as high as 40.  Stronger winds 60 miles or more offshore of Cape Mendocino with gusts to 45.  Lighter winds perhaps 10-20 knots, 10 miles or closer to shore.  Combined seas 9 to 13' from the NW.

 

Tuesday August 18, 2015

SJDF – West wind 5-15, wind waves 2' or less

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 5-20 knots, Seas NW swell 5 to 7'.  Wind waves 1-3'

 

Newport to SF – OK….I won't cut and paste the forecast this time.  Going out on a limb here I'm going to reduce the max winds by 5 knots.   Here goes.  NW winds 15-25 with gusts to 35.  Stronger winds 60 miles or more of offshore of Cape Mendocino with gusts to 40.  Lighter winds perhaps 5-15 knots, 10 miles or closer to shore. Combined seas 8 to 12' from the NW.  J

 

Be Safe, clip in and stay on the boat!

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

No boat reports as of 16:00 today

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 12th

Congratulations to Steve Lewis and the crew of s/v Manatee!
First boat to San Francisco from the fleet of 2015!

Way to go Steve!

http://wx.ocens.com/everon/tracking3.php?group=cohohoho

Here's Brads Weather Brief:

Brad's Coho ho ho weather August 12 2015, 12:00 PDT

As I typ this there is thunder and lightning going on outside my office!

There is a short term aspect to this forecast.  The NWS has issued a weather statement regarding thunderstorms in the coastal waters from about the Columbia River South to Tillamook.  By the time this forecast gets out they may have passed, but I suspect there will remain a chance of thunder storms through Thursday.   North Star is the only boat that may be effected by this.  With thunderstorms there can be Gusty winds likely to 30 knots for short duration.   Lightening is also a factor.

For the larger scale pattern the upper level low will be effecting most the forecast area until late Thursday.  Late Thursday and in to Friday the pacific high will strengthen as the upper level low exits to the NE and dissipates inland.  The weather models show a Pacific High that is well entrenched and fairly stationary well off shore at about 43N 150W.  The high is currently about 1028 mb.  The models have it strengthening to 1037 mb by late Saturday which is fairly impressive height for the Pacific high.  Also impressive is how stationary it appears it will be.

With the upper level low exiting a more typically pattern should come into play with thermally induced low pressure inland at Northern California and high pressure offshore.  Though the high is forecast to stay well offshore it is going to be strong enough that the pressure gradients are likely tighten up enough to have upper end small craft warnings or even possible lower end gale warning for parts of the Southern Oregon and Northern California Coast starting Saturday.   In this scenario with the high so far offshore often times in the waters closest to the coast (within 10 miles) relief can be found in significantly reduced winds.  The seas typically remain very bouncy.   Based on the weather models the strongest NW winds look to be from Cape Blanco to Cape Mendocino.

For the Strait of Juan de Fuca (SJDF) onshore flow should persist with Westerlies.  Today and tomorrow should be fairly mellow with stronger onshore push beginning Friday.  Winds will tend to be diurnal in nature with more wind in the Afternoon and evening hours.

Four Day Forecast:

Today

SJDF – Light wind to 10 knots to the west with the potential of building winds to 20 knots in the evening.  Small chance of thunderstorms

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – North to NW winds 0-10 knots backing around to the S to 10 kts in the evening.  The exception here is North half of Washington coast winds are forecast to remain out of NW and blow as high as 20Knots with gusts to 25.  Chance of thunderstorms North part of Oregon South part of Washington.   Seas mixed swell to 3'

Newport OR to SF – Generally light winds, shifting to the South by the evening.  Potential for stronger southerly winds gusting to as high as 20 knots from the South right at Cape Mendocino.  Seas mixed Swell to 3'.  Chance of showers in some places.

Thursday August 13

SJDF – diurnal winds lighter in the morning 5-15 out of the west, building 10-20 in the afternoon and up to 30 knots out of the West in the evening.  Wind waves 0-5' depending on windy it is.

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – S to SW winds to  10 knots except the vicinity of Cape flattery where it looks to be NW To W winds to 15 knots.  Seas, Swell 3' or less from mixed directions.

Newport Oregon to SF -  SW winds to 10 knots from Cape Blanco north, with winds shifting more W to NW from about Mendocino South.  In between the capes?........Maybe South, maybe N wind maybe no wind.  What ever direction not likely to exceed 10 knots.  Seas – Swell not exceeding 3'.

Friday August 14

SJDF – West winds to 10 knots building to as high as 25 knots in the afternoon and evening

Cape Flattery to Newport – W to NW wind 5-20 knots with more wind in the Northern part of the area.  Swell should start to increase to as high as 4' from the NW.  Wind waves 2' or less.

Newport to SF – Starting to get interesting.  Wind should increase throughout the day with strongest breeze filling first in the Southern portion of the forecast area and moving North.  Winds will be from the NW with a wide range of speed depending on location.  Offshore more than 10 miles out speeds could be as high as 25 knots with higher gusts.  From Cape Blanco North it should be lighter on Friday perhaps to 20 knots.  Within 10 miles of the coast winds should remain lighter, for the most part not exceeding 15 knots.  Seas: Rapidly building what they call combined seas to 8' with a wave period of 7 or 8 seconds. 

Saturday August 15

SJDF West winds to 10 knots building to 20 in the afternoon and evening

Cape Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-20 with higher gusts possible.  Winds should be lighter 10 miles or closer to shore to 15 knots.  Seas, Swell 4-6' from the NW at 7 to 8 seconds with building wind waves to 4'.

Newport to SF – Should be blowing pretty good by now.  NW winds, sustained 20-30 with higher gusts (wouldn't be surprised if some 40 knot gusts occur).  Strongest winds will be between Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino.  Winds should be less 10 miles or closer to shore, likely staying below 20 knots.  Seas, Waves 12' at 9 seconds.  NOAA hasn't posted It yet but there will likely be small craft warnings for hazardous seas showing up in their forecast for the Saturday Sunday time frame.

Reminder:  I mentioned this when I spoke last month.  Wave Height forecasts are for the average of the top 1/3 of the waves.  The majority will actually be smaller, but………maximum wave height can and will be taller up to twice as tall.  So when the forecast calls for 12' seas.  There will be the occasional 24' wave. J

Sunday August 16

SJDF – West wind 10 knots building to 20 knots for the afternoon and evening

Cape Flattery to Newport – NW winds 10-20 knots.  Seas NW swell to 5' with wind waves to 3 to 4'

Newport to SF – Identical to Saturday.  NW winds 20-30 with higher gusts.  Combined seas 12' at 9 seconds.  Strongest winds between the capes.

Brad

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Boat Reports

From Steve Lewis August 12th, 05:15 hrs

Clear sky and calm seas now. Dense fog at Pt Reyes.  San Francisco looms 20 miles SE. No traffic. We hope to sail in, Cody @helm.

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Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 37.766082 Lon -122.825538

From Steve Lewis August 11th:

We finally have full sunshine on day 6! Wind is variable 0-5 kn. Waves 1-2ft. Very few boats out here.

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Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 38.558762 Lon -124.020282

and:

Humpback whale sighted at 0820 PDT.

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Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 38.829868 Lon -124.3

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Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports

The N.W. Cruisers Party is over, and boats are moving!  Here's what we have now:

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather #2 August 10

 

There are some relatively small changes to the forecast from yesterday but by and large the larger pattern remains the same.  The big story continues to be an upper lever low that is currently off the Washington Coast.  This low is the reason my parade got rained on this morning when coming out after my 6am work out.  I know 6am…..what am I thinking.  Truth be told I almost decided to skip the work out and sleep in.  But I digress.  The models still have the upper level low wobbling around out there at about 130W longitude.   Not a lot of pressure gradient, making for moderate to light winds from the South at times, and the chance of showers, mist and fog interspersed with sun breaks.  The seas will also be mellow with Ocean Swell staying below 5 feet.

 

The small changes I referenced are the National Weather Service (NWS) has decided there is going to be a bit more onshore flow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca so there may be a bit more Westerly breeze at times.  The NWS is no longer calling for Easterlies on in the Strait for Wednesday and is instead calling for Westerlies perhaps as High as 25 knots in the evening hours.  What often happens in the SJDF is a diurnal cycle.  Things heat up inland and this causes rising air and lower pressure, essentially helping to bring in marine air from the ocean.  In the central strait the winds tend to build in the afternoon into the evening and then back off after midnight.

The other change is the NWS has backed off calling for stronger Northerlies from Pt. Arena South.  So things look light to moderate there through Thursday, along with everywhere else along the West Coast.

 

Models still point towards going back to a more normal enhanced NW winds blowing Southern Oregon and Northern California, starting sometime Friday and into the weekend.

Looking at the map coho map Kestrel is nearing Cape Mendocino and Manatee is in Newport.  The rest of you are still bumming Puget Sound.  Not going to be all that detailed in the forecast as there is not a lot of variance up and down the coast.  Here is the forecast for the next 4 days.

 

Strait of Juan de Fuca:

Winds will be 20 knots or less from the west through Wednesday.  Expect the highest winds to be in the afternoon and evenings.  Thursday and Friday should see a stronger onshore push and more wind can be expected topping out at 25 knots in the afternoon and evening hours

 

West Coast, Flattery to SF:

Winds should stay in the 15 knot or less range.  There can and likely will be periods of no wind.   As for direction the NWS is calling for W or NW (still light) for today and Tuesday and then SW to S for Weds. Thursday.  Things start transition to back a more NW direction across the board on Friday and into the weekend.  It looks as though the wind speed should increase from Blanco South, possibly gales.  Stay tuned.  Seas: swell should remain under 5 feet, but more likely in the 3' range during the forecast period.  You will likely get rained, drizzled or fogged on if you are sailing down the coast during this time.

 

Don't be alarmed if I do not send a forecast out tomorrow as I am traveling to Blaine and just may not have time.  I will resume on Wednesday.

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Stephen Lewis August 9th:

Wind 0-5Kn next 4Days, Seas calm with long low swell. Sunny with dense fog at night, Motoring now. Eta Thurs. No whales. I need a latte.

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Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 42.315978 Lon -124.992185

Dale Carlton August 10th 09:28 hrs

Hello Doug, Karl, Lee and Bob, THANK YOU!  We appreciate all your efforts and great results. The ceremony and dock line cutting was greatly appreciated.

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Dale Carlton sent this message from:
Lat 47.768083 Lon -122.441168

S/V Manatee August 10th 09:37 hrs

S/V Manatee motoring South near Cape Mendocino. Last nlght had poor horizontal visibility, but bright stars and waning moon.

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Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 40.523168 Lon -124.860242

Boat Locations:  http://wx.ocens.com/everon/tracking3.php?group=cohohoho

Keep them cards and letters coming folks!

karl

Don't worry. They'll get out of the way. I learned that driving the Saratoga. -- Captain Ron

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Rally 2015: S/V Manatee report on crossing the Columbia River Bar

One of our first boat reports for the 2015 Coho Ho Ho Cruising Rally!

S/V Manatee crossed the Columbia River Bar using the engine and auto pilot on the evening of July 29, 2015. 

The bar was unrestricted with 4 foot wind waves on a 2 foot swell from the North.  Wind was NW 15 kn gusting to 25.  We encountered dense fog from buoy 2 to buoy 10 (4 nm), then clear sky with sunshine.  The approach was timed to hit the bar at slack current (about 7 PM) and then ride the flood in.  It took about 2.5 hours to cross the bar because the combined effects of the waves and wind slowed the boat to 1 kn after we turned to head toward buoy 2.  We moored at the Astoria West Basin just after dark.

We kept to the red buoy side of the main channel and had one cargo ship call us on the VHF radio to make passing arrangements.  The ship passed us at mid channel but we couldn't see him visually—we just tracked him with radar and AIS.  We also detoured around a CG helicopter lifting someone in a basket out of the water at about buoy 20 (it looked like a training exercise). 

The crew wore full foul weather gear because of the cool air temperatures, regular spray from the bow, and the one odd wave that broke over the starboard gunwale and sloshed down into the cockpit.  It was choppy so we also clipped into the jack lines.

The Port of Astoria West Basin Marina (West of the bridge) is the best place to tie-up.  It is close to both downtown Astoria and a good marine supply store.  The Port of Astoria East Basin Marina is not used much because they have Oregon Sea Lions—sometimes as many as 1,500! 

My thanks to the Manatee crew: Ralph Cumberland and Joy Johnson.

--Steve Lewis

S/V Manatee