Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Weather: August 27, 2015 - the last one from Brad

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Brads Last Weather Brief: 

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 27, 2015

 

Well it looks like the party is over for us here in Seattle, with a fairly drastic change in the weather in store for us this weekend.  The National Weather Service is calling for rain, hard at times, especially in the Mountains where the South Facing Slopes could receive more than 4 inches of rain.  This forecast could be very good news for getting the wild fires under control east of the mountains.  It also would not be a very good time to sail down the coast, as stiff Southerly breeze will prevail off the Washington and Northern Oregon Coast with Gales likely at times.  The one remaining boat in the Fleet Athanor will likely be paying close attention to the conditions as they plan to turn the corner on Monday the 31^st. 

 

Looking at the SnapTrack map this morning I see that Nutmeg has cleared Cape Mendocino.  They are far enough South that the effects of the low pressure system heading our way won't be nearly as drastic.  Here is the forecast for the waters they will be sailing in, taken right from the National Weather Service Forecast:

 

Today August 27

NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Tonight

NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Fri

SW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Fri Night

SW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 16 seconds. Slight chance of rain.

Sat

W winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight.

Sun

NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.

Mon

NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft...becoming 4 to 6 ft.

Given that the majority of the fleet has made it to San Francisco and beyond and I've been at this for more than two weeks now, it's that time for me to finish doing daily weather forecasts tor the Coho ho ho.  I will continue to email directly to Nutmeg the current forecast and to advise Athanor directly as they make plans to turn the corner.  For those wishing to seek weather and routing advice, I recommend you contact Rick Sheema who runs a service called the Weather Guy.  www.weatherguy.com

I wish all of you the very best in the adventures you have embarked upon.  May you have fair winds and following seas!

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

10,000 thanks! to Brad!

Coho ho ho weather August 25, 2015

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Brads Weather Message for August 25th

 

My apologies for missing yesterday!

 

I see that Nutmeg is now South of Newport Oregon by 10 or 20 miles.  Also it appears that Manatee is on the move heading back North perhaps.   The one remaining boat yet to leave is Athanor which has plans to cut lines I believe on the 31^st.  Given boat positions, this forecast will be for the waters from Newport Oregon to SF.

 

The Large scale pattern has now shifted, and the dominant feature is an upper level low currently well off the Washington Coast.  This low is currently far enough off the coast that a week ridge of high pressure remains  between it and the coast itself.   Light Northerlies still prevail from Flattery to San Francisco.  This will change eventually to Southerly winds. The big question is when, and where?  The US and European models don't completely agree on the timing, with the European model being more progressive with a quicker and wetter transition than the US GFS model.   The eventual outcome will be the low will slowly drift towards the coast with a transition to S to SW winds along the coast, starting in the Washington and Northern Oregon waters first and then the southerly winds will progress down the coast likely near or all the way to San Francisco perhaps by Friday. 

 

4 day forecast

 

Today August 25, 2015

 

Newport to SF – NW wind 10-20 with gusts to 25 possible.  NW Swell 5-7' at 10-12 seconds wind waves 2-3'

 

Wednesday August 26

 

Newport to SF – N to NW wind 5-15 knots North of Cape Mendocino and NW winds 10-20 South of Cape Menodocino.  Seas 4-6' from NW.

 

Thursday August 27

 

Newport to SF – Winds transitioning to light southerlies to 10 knots from Cape Mendocino North.  NW wind 5-20  knots Cape Mendocino South.  NW swell running at about 4'

 

Friday August 28

 

Newport to SF - S to SW winds 5—15 knots.  However the wind from Pt. Arena Southward will likely be westerly.  Seas W to NW swell 3-5'

 

Saturday August 20

 

Newport to SF – S to SW winds 5 – 25 knots.  The strongest winds (more than 15 knots) should be confined to the waters North of Cape Mendocino.  Seas, West swell 3-6' with South wind waves 1-6'.

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Coho ho ho weather August 23

Brads Weather for August 23:

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather, August 23, 2015

 

So there is a bit uncertainty in the longer term forecast.  As often happens the models have changed since my forecast yesterday.  At this point it's uncertain what the conditions will be Starting Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  What the models do agree on is that an upper level low pressure system will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska during that time.  The model run yesterday had this feature well offshore centered at about 140W Longitude.  The same model today has it further east at about 135 degrees and showing a track that will eventually move it closer.   What does this mean?  I'm glad you asked.  It means I don't have a clue if the prevailing winds will be from the South or the North come Wednesday Thursday, especially in the waters North of Cape Blanco.   The way the models have been trending, if I had to guess, I suspect we will have Southerly winds by Thursday into Friday and that a chance of showers will be in the forecast for the Washington and Oregon coast next Friday and into the weekend.  But, it is not totally clear at this point.  What I can say with reasonable confidence is the conditions will remain fairly benign over the next 4 to 5 days.  There remains some pressure gradient in the Southern Oregon/Northern California waters, but nothing like the Gales we had earlier.    Wind direction, from Cape Mendocino, South should remain Northerly, but come Wednesday onward it's less certain for the waters North of there.

 

The Coho ho ho map still has Nutmeg in Westport, so I'll do a forecast that covers from there going South

 

Here is my best guess on the 4 day forecast.  Confidence becomes iffy at day 3 and 4:

 

Today August 23, 2015

 

Westport to SF – N to NW winds 5-20, with strongest winds North of Newport OR to Cape flattery where there are small craft warning posted for today with gusts to  25.  South of Cape Blanco you can expect light Southerly winds today.  Seas will be running 5-6' from the NW

 

Monday August 24, 2015

 

Westport to SF – N to NW winds 5-20.  Stronger winds shifting more to South of Newport.  Seas running 5-6' from the NW.

 

Tuesday August 25, 2015

 

Westport to SF – N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25.  The winds N. of Newport will likely stay under 15 knots.  From Cape Blanco South winds will likely start to pipe up a bit into the low 20s at times with higher gusts in the afternoon and evening hours.  Seas will be running 5-7' from the NW.

 

Wednesday August 26

 

Westport to SF – The National Weather service says it will still be blowing N to  NW all up and down the coast but it may be a transition time for the  Northern Oregon and Washington waters, with probably not a lot of wind and maybe southerlies late.  It's really up in the air a bit.  Anyway for now lest go with N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25.  Strongest winds will be South of Newport.  The winds south of Newport are likely to be diurnal (stronger in the afternoon and evening).  Seas 4-7' from the NW.

 

Thursday August 27

 

Westport to Cape Blanco – S to SW winds to 10 knots.  Seas, NW swell 4' with wind waves up to 2'.

 

Cape Blanco to SF – N to NW winds 5-20 knots, combined seas 3-6' mostly from the NW.

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

 

Fwd: Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather August 22th

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Brads Weather Message for August 22nd

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather August 22, 2015

 

Things are shaping up for what looks like a nice window for travelling down the coast, if you like tail winds blowing 25 knots or less that is.  Looking at the Snap track map North Star is in the Bodega Bay with the rest in San Francisco or further South.  Nutmeg is working their way south with the last report showing them at West Port.    So I guess this report is mostly for Nut Meg and I will stop doing Forecast for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the coast North of Nutmeg.

 

There is an interesting change in the overall pattern.  The end result will be weaker pressure gradients, but should still keep N to NW wind all along the West coast from Cape Flattery to San Francisco.   The Pacific High pressure has made a migration well to the west with a ridge of high pressure extending to the east.  This ridging is the reason we have had some stiff winds off the N. California Coast/Southern Oregon Coast.  With the High pressure center so far West the door is open for an upper level low to make it's way south.  The models currently have this low positioning itself well offshore centered at about 140 W longitude by Wednesday of next week.  This is far enough off shore for a fairly weak ridge to develop just off the US west coast.  If this scenario plays out the weak high pressure should keep Light to Moderate N winds blowing all the way down the coast.   With this pattern the wind speeds will get lighter the further offshore you go.   This pattern should be in full force by Wednesday.  The short term keeps N to NW winds, windy off the capes today, but it should be moderating for all the coast by Sunday.  There is still light southerly winds in the forecast for waters south of Cape Mendocino for Sunday. 

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 22, 2015

 

West Port to San Francisco – N to NW winds 15 – 25 knots with gusts to 30 possible.  Strongest winds from Newport to Cape Mendocino.  Seas, NW  6-11' combined seas.

 

Sunday August 23, 2015

 

West Port to Cape Mendocino – N to NW winds 10-20 except waters between Capes Blanco and Mendocino where sustained winds to 25 possible with higher gusts.  Combined seas 5-10' form the NW

 

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco -  S to SE winds to 10 knots.  And the National Weather Service is calling for smoke.  I can only assume winds are going offshore in this area and the smoke is from fires.  Seas, The swell will be backing off to NW to 4'.

 

Monday, August 24

 

WP to SF  – N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25 possible.  Seas, NW combined waves to 3-5'

 

Tuesday August 25

 

WP to SF  – N to NW wind 10 – 20 with gusts to 25 possible.   In general the winds will be stronger South of Cape Blanco.  Seas 3-5' from NW

 

Wednesday August 26

 

WP to SF - N to NW winds 10-15 knots,  Seas 3-5' from the NW 

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 21th

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Brads Weather Message for August 21st

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather August 21, 2015

 

Good morning.   I'm getting this forecast out before hopping on a boat heading to Decatur Island this weekend.   I'm told I will have internet where we will be staying so should be able to continue with forecasts over the weekend.

 

The big news in the forecast is the NWS has issued Gale warning for the waters off Cape Blanco and for waters more than 10 miles offshore all the way to Cape Mendocino.   The reason is, though the center of the high pressure in the Pacific is retrograding further to the west a ridge of high pressure is extending out from the high like the arm of an ameba, producing a pressure gradient "pinch point" between the capes.  This should keep it windy off Cape Blanco extending a bit south from today into Saturday.  By Sunday it should mellow out quite a bit in this area.  I don't know that any of you in the fleet will be affected by this as the bulk of the fleet is already south of this area with at least one boat still in Washington waters.  For the rest of the waters N to NW wind should prevail for the most part.  The NWS is still calling for light SE winds in the waters south of Cape Mendocino to SF on Sunday.   As we get into next week the models are currently showing an upper level trough forming off the West coast of the US starting Wednesday.   If this occurs, winds should moderate considerably with the chance of southerlies coming into the forecast.  So stay tuned for this potential larger scale pattern change.

 

There is a currently a pretty good onshore push happening in the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  This should back off tomorrow (Saturday) only to return on Sunday into Monday.

 

The 4 day forecast

 

Today August 21, 2015

 

SJDF – West winds 10-25 with gusts to 30 – Wind Waves 1-4 feet.

 

Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon – N to NW wind 10-25 with gusts to 30.  The highest winds are likely to be off the Washington coast more than 10 miles out.  Sea, NW swell 6-8 feet at 8 seconds with wind waves 2-5'

 

Newport Oregon to San Francisco – Wind range will be large depending on when and where you are in this forecast area.  N to NW winds 10-35 with gusts as high as 40 knots.  Strongest winds between the capes and in the evening.   The winds North and South of the capes should be considerably less maxing out at 25 knot.   Seas will have a wide range as well with combined seas 5 to 11'.  With the short fetch there will be high potential for Hazardous short period waves and breaking seas in the offshore waters between the capes.  Fog is a definite possibility.

 

Saturday August 22

 

SJDF – Light winds perhaps filling initially form the NW to 10 knots then West to 15 knots late in the afternoon into the evening.

 

Flattery to Newport – Diurnal winds with the strongest winds being in the afternoon and evening hours.  N to NW winds 5- 20 with gusts to 25 knots.  Seas, W to NW Swell 4 to 6' at 8 seconds with N to NW wind waves 1-4'

 

Newport to SF – Still blowing pretty hard between the capes, N to NW 20 – 30 with gusts to 35 between the capes.  North of Cape Blanco we are looking at  N to NW wind 10-20 with gusts to 25.  South of Cape Mendocino NW wind 10-20 with gusty winds at times to 30.  Less wind closer to shore.  Seas, Combined seas 6-11'.  Fog at times.

 

Sunday August 23

 

SJDF – W wind 10-20 building late 20-30.  It should blow all night into Monday morning with a new onshore push

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 15 -25.  It looks as though the stronger winds will be closer to Newport.  Seas, NW swell 6 – 8' with wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to SF – Should be mellowing out between the capes today.  NW wind 5-20 from Newport to Cape Mendocino.  SE wind to 10 knots South of Cape Mendocino,  Seas, NW swell 5-7' at 8 seconds.  Wind waves to 2'.  Some of the more observant may notice that there is also an underlying South swell of about 2' with a longer period.  This has been the case over the last week, but it's probably pretty hard to detect.  There will be fog in some areas.

 

Monday August 24

 

SJDF – West wind 20-30 Wind waves 2-5'

 

Flattery to San Francisco -  N to NW wind 10-20 with gusty winds to 25 possible nearer to cape Blanco in the afternoon and evening hours.  Seas N to NW 3-7'  Fog very possible everywhere, but more likely from about Newport South.

 

Tuesday August 25

 

SJDF – W wind 15-25 with wind waves 2-4'

 

Cape Flattery to San Francisco – N to NW wind 5-25, More wind in the southern portion of the forecast area from Cape Blanco South.  Seas N to NW combined seas 3-7'.  Fog is in the forecast for waters south of Cape Blanco.

 

Well, I didn't finish the forecast before having to leave and board the boat.  So this is coming to you from the J-145 "Double Take" currently just South of Point Well, heading North through Saratoga Passage and through Deception pass before arriving at Decatur Island this afternoon!

 

Brad

 

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

No new boat reports for now:

No, no, no, no. Not my boat. My boss's boat. Yeah, we hit this reef. Huge son-of-a-bitch. Ran the whole coast. - Captain Ron

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 20th

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Brads Weather Message for August 20th

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather, August 20, 2015

 

Looking at the snap track map, with the exception of Athanor, all the participants are now South of Cape Mendocino.   My plan is to pass on weather info to the fleet to get them to San Francisco.  It looks as though the majority of you are almost there!   If any of you would like weather support beyond I highly recommend Rick Sheema who runs Weatherguy.com.   Rick is a sailor himself and does an excellent job with routing.   Rick is also an actual meteorologist as opposed to me who is…..well..a yacht broker.   Here is a link to his site:   http://weatherguy.com/tp40/Default.asp?ID=126449

 

Since it appears most if not all participants are South I'm going to provide one more forecast covering the entire area.  If I don't hear from any stragglers then I will confine the next few and final forecasts to the area south of Cape Mendocino.

 

Bottom line Is Northerlies prevail up and down the coast at various strengths.  Wind speeds should stay 30 knots or below for most if not all areas with lots below 20 as well.   This should hold through the weekend and into early next week.  The exception are the waters closer to the coast, south of Cape Mendocino where there are light southerly winds in the forecast over the weekend.

 

A fairly strong surge is in the forecast for the Strait of Juan de Fuca for today and tonight with 25-35 in the forecast for the afternoon and evening hours.  Onshore push should continue through tomorrow, then lesson a bit but still blow over the weekend.  The strongest winds today and tomorrow should be the central and eastern strait.

 

With the exception of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, conditions should make for some good sailing!

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 20

 

SJDF – Wests winds 10-25 rising to 25-35 in the evening for the Central and Easter Strait.  Wind waves 1-6'

 

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 10 -25 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, NW swell 8' at 9 seconds with wind wave 3-5'.

 

Newport OR to San Francisco – N to NW winds 10-25 with higher gusts possible.  Strongest winds near Cape Blanco.  For the most part winds will be on average 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Expect fog at times especially in the waters south of Cape Mendocino.  Seas,  NW swell 9-10' at 9 seconds with wind waves 1-5'.

 

Friday August 20

 

SJDF  - West winds 15-25 with wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – N to NW winds 10-30 with the strongest winds off the Washington coast.  Seas, NW swell 9' at 8 seconds with wind waves 3-6'

 

Newport to SF – N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts as high as 35.  Strongest winds between the capes.  About 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Fog is a definite possibility.    Winds south of Mendocino and close to shore should be relatively benign.  Seas, NW swell 10 to 11' at 9 seconds with wind waves 2-6'.

 

Saturday August 21

 

SJDF – W wind 0 – 25.  Light in the morning likely building in the afternoon and evening.  Wind waves 0-3'

 

Flattery to Newport – N winds 10-20 with higher gust possible.  Seas, 4-6' NW swell at 8 seconds with wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to SF – Forecast is for it to blow 30 from the NW  Near Cape Blanco with 10-25 elsewhere.  Seas should be running around 10' at 9 seconds from the NW  with wind waves 1-5'.  Cape Blanco area  likely to be a bit bumpier.  The areas south of Mendocino should remain under 20 knots and  actually quite light at times especially closer to shore.  Fog is in the forecast.

 

Sunday August 22

 

SJDF – West wind 15-25 knots, wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – More of the same N to NW wind 10-20 with higher gusts, Seas, NW swell 4-6' at 8 seconds with wind waves to 2-4'

 

Newport to SF – Moderating, N to NW winds 10-20 in the waters north of Mendocino.  Light winds to 10 knots from the South in the waters South of Mendocino.  Flog  possible if not likely.  Combined seas 4-7' from the NW

 

Monday August 23

 

SJDF – Current NWS forecast calls for 20-30 from the West. 

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 5-15 with gusts to 20.  NW swell 7', wind waves to 3'

 

Newport to  SF – NW winds 20 knots or less, N of Cape Mendocino.  NW 5-15 South of Cape Mendocino.  Seas, Swell 3-5' from NW with wind waves 1-4'.  May be foggy at times.

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Some Boat Reports:

From Matt Aug 19th 23:42:

Has been an awesome trip. No way to email way out there did basic inreach plan.  Just a few msgs to send each month.  Got a lot of tricky weather tho.

We played in the Gale for a bit, but the waves got bigger then reported and kept jibing us, tore a sail. Took to a line and cover in port orford. Then again winds differed from what was reported by noaa, weatherpassage and inreach and slammed us from the south around Mendocino cape.  Had to eventually motor to get closer to shore since weather wOuldn't cooperate with all reports. On the way motoring back to closer to see if we could duck away from the diseagreable wind our pulley for the water pump completely sheered off and had a fin Done sailing her to shore. now we are held up In fort bragg where there is one over worked machinist/mechanic to help us get it drilled etc. Soo guess its a break from the good times till parts come in so we can fix it ourselves.

Great Times so far, but weather hang been agreeing with reports so we are trying to track down the good stuff! 

Will have service for next few dats.  Can catch up during this time.  Hope to see you in san fran!

From Tera Shimada:

Hey All!

We are safe in Fort Bragg, CA, fixing a couple items that cropped up during the stretch from Port Orford to Mendocino. 

If all repairs go well, we will be departing for SF tomorrow. 

Can you send us the latest info on the SF party? Is it still going on? 

Thanks,

Tera

From Steve Lewis Aug 21 13:30

Berkeley yacht club rental:

Http://Www.berkekeyyc.org/rent 

Phone for rate quote 510 843-9292

Rented 5-10pm. But it is available in the afternoon 11-3.

Rates for boating non-profit.

$350 for 4 hr before 3pm.

Lorraine is the person in the office.

Steve

Alright, now stay with me: When we left, we had just enough fuel to make it to San Juan. And we are out of fuel.  - Captain Ron

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 19th

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Brads Weather Message for August 19th

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 19, 2015

 

My apologies for missing the forecast yesterday, I had a long one day trip to SF and back.  I'm back in the saddle this morning however. 

 

The large scale pattern seems to be following my previous forecast.  The pacific high has lost some strength and is a more oval shape flat on top and bottom extending out to the east and west.  Since it has weakened, the pressure gradients off Northern California relaxed a bit yesterday in today with the strongest wind field moving more offshore.  I do expect the wind to increase again mostly between the capes late tomorrow and into Saturday.  It should not be as strong as it was the day before yesterday, but still small craft warning strength.  Meanwhile, we do have an interesting set up in the waters off Washington and Northern Oregon.  Pressure gradients are tighter up here in the coastal waters.  It kind of the same situation that happens in N.  California, with inland heating up generating a thermal low and reasonable high pressure ridging offshore for stronger N. winds off the Washington coast today and tomorrow.  Again, not gales, but definitely in the small craft warning category.   The forecast calls for an upper level trough to brush the area here in Washington late Thursday and into Friday.  This will bring more clouds and possibly some rain into the forecast for the coastal waters, though it doesn't look like it will rain in Seattle. 

 

By in large N to NW winds will persist all along the coast from Cape Flattery to SF.  However, the models do show that as the pacific high retrogrades further west this coming weekend, the thermal low will extend out over the waters mainly Cape Mendocino and south.  This increases the chances for light to moderate southerly winds closer to the coast south of Cape Mendocino over the weekend.  In this pattern it is common also to have fog closer to the coast.

 

The Strait of Juan de Fuca will have a fairly strong onshore push starting this evening and lasting into Friday for stronger westerly winds probably exceeding 30 knots at times.  It looks as though the westerlies will let up a bit for the weekend but it will still be breezy at times.

 

For the long term forecast the current GFS Model has things being reasonably mellow along the coast early next week, with the strongest winds being North of Cape Blanco for once.  Stay tuned.

 

4 day forecast:

 

Today August 19, 2015

 

SJDF West winds starting at 10 knots building through the day up to 25-35 late tonight.   Wind waves starting out at 1' or so building to 4-6' once the wind gets cranked up.

 

Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 15 to 30 knots.  More wind in the northern portion of the forecast area.  NW waves 7 to 12' at 9 seconds

 

Newport OR to San Francisco – NW winds 0-25.  More wind North of Cape Mendocino and further offshore.  The winds South of Cape Mendocino have a high probability of being light especially closer to shore.  Also the possibility of fog is fairly high especially closer to shore.  Seas 5-7' form the NW at 9 to 10 seconds

 

Thursday August 20

 

SJDF – West winds 10 knots in the morning building throughout the day to 20-30 with higher gusts in the late evening.  Wind waves 1-5' (bigger the windier it gets).

 

Flattery to Newport – NW winds 10-30 with less wind closer to the coast.  Fog is also a definite possibility.  Seas, NW swell 9 – 12' at 9 to 10 seconds

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30, with gusts to 35.   The strongest winds will be in the evening and between the capes and probably more than 15 or 20 miles offshore.  Patchy fog, especially in the morning hours is likely.  Combined seas to 8' at 9 seconds

 

Friday August 21

 

SJDF – West winds 10-25 with strongest winds in the afternoon and evening.  Should let up after midnight.  Wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25 knots, less wind closer to shore with fog possible.  Seas 7-9' at 9 seconds

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30.  Strongest breeze between the capes and further offshore.  Patchy fog possible.  Definitely getting lighter South of Mendocino and closer to shore.  Seas, 8 to 10' at 9 seconds from the NW. 

 

Saturday August 22

 

SJDF – West winds 0-25, 0 in the morning 25 in the evening.  Wind waves 0-4'

 

Flattery to Newport -  NW wind 5- 20, more wind the further South you go in this area.  Seas 5-7' from the NW.

 

Newport to SF – NW winds 5-25, with gusts to 30 knot.  Winds considerably lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  Seas to  7-10' from the NW

 

Sunday August 23

 

SJDF – W wind 0-25 more wind in the afternoon and evening.  Wind waves 1-4'

 

Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25, seas 6-7' from the NW

 

Newport to SF – N to  NW winds 5-15 from Cape Mendocino North with S to SE winds to 10 knots south of Cape Mendocino.  There will be waves, mostly from the NW to 6'

 

Brad

 

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Brads (non) Weather Message for August 18th

Fleet,

 

I'm flying to San Francisco early this morning on a boat deal.  I had hoped to do weather while in flight but the in service internet is proving much to slow to check weather.  I hope to steel a bit of time later this morning to do a weather check.  If I do get a forecast out to you it will likely be abbreviated.    My apologies for the delay. 

 

Best

 

Brad

We have some boat reports!:

From Nutmeg Aug 19th, 07:18 hrs

Hello everyone. 

Nutmeg has made it to Neah  Bay. We motored here all the way from Seattle in calm waters, no wind, and sunny skies. We are going to leave to make the "big left" either late this afternoon or early tomorrow morning!

From Steve Lewis, Aug 19th, 07:39 hrs

Here are a few tips for boats coming to the Berkeley Marina:

·        The office is at the top of K dock.  They close at 4pm.

·        The only bus out here is the 51B.  For $2.10 you can take it downtown and catch BART, CALTrains, or another bus.  When you return to the marina, take the 51B Marina bus, not the 51B Amtrak bus—otherwise you will need to hike from the Amtrak station over the foot bridge to the marina.

·        If you are going to use public transport, buy a "Clipper" card for $3 then add money to it to pay for fares—it's good on most forms of transportation in the bay area.  You can buy them at Walgreens or other retail outlets (https://www.clippercard.com/ClipperWeb/map.do ). Clipper cards are accepted on BART, Caltrain, Muni, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit & Ferry and WETA (South San Francisco ferry).  Not only is it more convenient than cash, but you get a discount on the regular fare too.

·        You can walk into town using the foot bridge (not University Ave).  It's a short walk.

·        The Amtrak station is within sight of the Berkeley end of the foot bridge.

·        The marina has a small boat yard with a travel lift.  Berkeley Marine Center 510 843-8195.

·        Laundry is a 20 min hike around the marina from K-dock.

·        The Berkeley Yacht Club has Friday night races.

·        Showers are free.

·        There are three restaurants next to the marina (four if you include the Double Tree Inn restaurant).

·        Use BART to go into San Francisco. 

·        The CityPass discount ticket booklet seems like a good deal if you are going sightseeing in San Francisco.  It includes a 7-day pass for Muni bus, train, or cable car rides.  See http://citypass.com . 

From Aeolian:

We spent the night in Eureka.  Had a good nights rest after being in winds up to 35 knots two nights ago.  Now getting diesel and heading out again.

Jane
S/V Aeolian