Friday, August 21, 2015

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports August 21th

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Brads Weather Message for August 21st

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather August 21, 2015


Good morning.   I'm getting this forecast out before hopping on a boat heading to Decatur Island this weekend.   I'm told I will have internet where we will be staying so should be able to continue with forecasts over the weekend.


The big news in the forecast is the NWS has issued Gale warning for the waters off Cape Blanco and for waters more than 10 miles offshore all the way to Cape Mendocino.   The reason is, though the center of the high pressure in the Pacific is retrograding further to the west a ridge of high pressure is extending out from the high like the arm of an ameba, producing a pressure gradient "pinch point" between the capes.  This should keep it windy off Cape Blanco extending a bit south from today into Saturday.  By Sunday it should mellow out quite a bit in this area.  I don't know that any of you in the fleet will be affected by this as the bulk of the fleet is already south of this area with at least one boat still in Washington waters.  For the rest of the waters N to NW wind should prevail for the most part.  The NWS is still calling for light SE winds in the waters south of Cape Mendocino to SF on Sunday.   As we get into next week the models are currently showing an upper level trough forming off the West coast of the US starting Wednesday.   If this occurs, winds should moderate considerably with the chance of southerlies coming into the forecast.  So stay tuned for this potential larger scale pattern change.


There is a currently a pretty good onshore push happening in the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  This should back off tomorrow (Saturday) only to return on Sunday into Monday.


The 4 day forecast


Today August 21, 2015


SJDF – West winds 10-25 with gusts to 30 – Wind Waves 1-4 feet.


Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon – N to NW wind 10-25 with gusts to 30.  The highest winds are likely to be off the Washington coast more than 10 miles out.  Sea, NW swell 6-8 feet at 8 seconds with wind waves 2-5'


Newport Oregon to San Francisco – Wind range will be large depending on when and where you are in this forecast area.  N to NW winds 10-35 with gusts as high as 40 knots.  Strongest winds between the capes and in the evening.   The winds North and South of the capes should be considerably less maxing out at 25 knot.   Seas will have a wide range as well with combined seas 5 to 11'.  With the short fetch there will be high potential for Hazardous short period waves and breaking seas in the offshore waters between the capes.  Fog is a definite possibility.


Saturday August 22


SJDF – Light winds perhaps filling initially form the NW to 10 knots then West to 15 knots late in the afternoon into the evening.


Flattery to Newport – Diurnal winds with the strongest winds being in the afternoon and evening hours.  N to NW winds 5- 20 with gusts to 25 knots.  Seas, W to NW Swell 4 to 6' at 8 seconds with N to NW wind waves 1-4'


Newport to SF – Still blowing pretty hard between the capes, N to NW 20 – 30 with gusts to 35 between the capes.  North of Cape Blanco we are looking at  N to NW wind 10-20 with gusts to 25.  South of Cape Mendocino NW wind 10-20 with gusty winds at times to 30.  Less wind closer to shore.  Seas, Combined seas 6-11'.  Fog at times.


Sunday August 23


SJDF – W wind 10-20 building late 20-30.  It should blow all night into Monday morning with a new onshore push


Flattery to Newport – NW wind 15 -25.  It looks as though the stronger winds will be closer to Newport.  Seas, NW swell 6 – 8' with wind waves to 3'


Newport to SF – Should be mellowing out between the capes today.  NW wind 5-20 from Newport to Cape Mendocino.  SE wind to 10 knots South of Cape Mendocino,  Seas, NW swell 5-7' at 8 seconds.  Wind waves to 2'.  Some of the more observant may notice that there is also an underlying South swell of about 2' with a longer period.  This has been the case over the last week, but it's probably pretty hard to detect.  There will be fog in some areas.


Monday August 24


SJDF – West wind 20-30 Wind waves 2-5'


Flattery to San Francisco -  N to NW wind 10-20 with gusty winds to 25 possible nearer to cape Blanco in the afternoon and evening hours.  Seas N to NW 3-7'  Fog very possible everywhere, but more likely from about Newport South.


Tuesday August 25


SJDF – W wind 15-25 with wind waves 2-4'


Cape Flattery to San Francisco – N to NW wind 5-25, More wind in the southern portion of the forecast area from Cape Blanco South.  Seas N to NW combined seas 3-7'.  Fog is in the forecast for waters south of Cape Blanco.


Well, I didn't finish the forecast before having to leave and board the boat.  So this is coming to you from the J-145 "Double Take" currently just South of Point Well, heading North through Saratoga Passage and through Deception pass before arriving at Decatur Island this afternoon!





Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110    Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

No new boat reports for now:

No, no, no, no. Not my boat. My boss's boat. Yeah, we hit this reef. Huge son-of-a-bitch. Ran the whole coast. - Captain Ron

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