Brads Weather Message for August 22nd
Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather August 22, 2015
Things are shaping up for what looks like a nice window for travelling down the coast, if you like tail winds blowing 25 knots or less that is. Looking at the Snap track map North Star is in the Bodega Bay with the rest in San Francisco or further South. Nutmeg is working their way south with the last report showing them at West Port. So I guess this report is mostly for Nut Meg and I will stop doing Forecast for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the coast North of Nutmeg.
There is an interesting change in the overall pattern. The end result will be weaker pressure gradients, but should still keep N to NW wind all along the West coast from Cape Flattery to San Francisco. The Pacific High pressure has made a migration well to the west with a ridge of high pressure extending to the east. This ridging is the reason we have had some stiff winds off the N. California Coast/Southern Oregon Coast. With the High pressure center so far West the door is open for an upper level low to make it's way south. The models currently have this low positioning itself well offshore centered at about 140 W longitude by Wednesday of next week. This is far enough off shore for a fairly weak ridge to develop just off the US west coast. If this scenario plays out the weak high pressure should keep Light to Moderate N winds blowing all the way down the coast. With this pattern the wind speeds will get lighter the further offshore you go. This pattern should be in full force by Wednesday. The short term keeps N to NW winds, windy off the capes today, but it should be moderating for all the coast by Sunday. There is still light southerly winds in the forecast for waters south of Cape Mendocino for Sunday.
4 day forecast:
Today August 22, 2015
West Port to San Francisco – N to NW winds 15 – 25 knots with gusts to 30 possible. Strongest winds from Newport to Cape Mendocino. Seas, NW 6-11' combined seas.
Sunday August 23, 2015
West Port to Cape Mendocino – N to NW winds 10-20 except waters between Capes Blanco and Mendocino where sustained winds to 25 possible with higher gusts. Combined seas 5-10' form the NW
Cape Mendocino to San Francisco - S to SE winds to 10 knots. And the National Weather Service is calling for smoke. I can only assume winds are going offshore in this area and the smoke is from fires. Seas, The swell will be backing off to NW to 4'.
Monday, August 24
WP to SF – N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25 possible. Seas, NW combined waves to 3-5'
Tuesday August 25
WP to SF – N to NW wind 10 – 20 with gusts to 25 possible. In general the winds will be stronger South of Cape Blanco. Seas 3-5' from NW
Wednesday August 26
WP to SF - N to NW winds 10-15 knots, Seas 3-5' from the NW
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109