Monday, August 10, 2015

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2015 - Brads Weather and boat reports

The N.W. Cruisers Party is over, and boats are moving!  Here's what we have now:

Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather #2 August 10


There are some relatively small changes to the forecast from yesterday but by and large the larger pattern remains the same.  The big story continues to be an upper lever low that is currently off the Washington Coast.  This low is the reason my parade got rained on this morning when coming out after my 6am work out.  I know 6am…..what am I thinking.  Truth be told I almost decided to skip the work out and sleep in.  But I digress.  The models still have the upper level low wobbling around out there at about 130W longitude.   Not a lot of pressure gradient, making for moderate to light winds from the South at times, and the chance of showers, mist and fog interspersed with sun breaks.  The seas will also be mellow with Ocean Swell staying below 5 feet.


The small changes I referenced are the National Weather Service (NWS) has decided there is going to be a bit more onshore flow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca so there may be a bit more Westerly breeze at times.  The NWS is no longer calling for Easterlies on in the Strait for Wednesday and is instead calling for Westerlies perhaps as High as 25 knots in the evening hours.  What often happens in the SJDF is a diurnal cycle.  Things heat up inland and this causes rising air and lower pressure, essentially helping to bring in marine air from the ocean.  In the central strait the winds tend to build in the afternoon into the evening and then back off after midnight.

The other change is the NWS has backed off calling for stronger Northerlies from Pt. Arena South.  So things look light to moderate there through Thursday, along with everywhere else along the West Coast.


Models still point towards going back to a more normal enhanced NW winds blowing Southern Oregon and Northern California, starting sometime Friday and into the weekend.

Looking at the map coho map Kestrel is nearing Cape Mendocino and Manatee is in Newport.  The rest of you are still bumming Puget Sound.  Not going to be all that detailed in the forecast as there is not a lot of variance up and down the coast.  Here is the forecast for the next 4 days.


Strait of Juan de Fuca:

Winds will be 20 knots or less from the west through Wednesday.  Expect the highest winds to be in the afternoon and evenings.  Thursday and Friday should see a stronger onshore push and more wind can be expected topping out at 25 knots in the afternoon and evening hours


West Coast, Flattery to SF:

Winds should stay in the 15 knot or less range.  There can and likely will be periods of no wind.   As for direction the NWS is calling for W or NW (still light) for today and Tuesday and then SW to S for Weds. Thursday.  Things start transition to back a more NW direction across the board on Friday and into the weekend.  It looks as though the wind speed should increase from Blanco South, possibly gales.  Stay tuned.  Seas: swell should remain under 5 feet, but more likely in the 3' range during the forecast period.  You will likely get rained, drizzled or fogged on if you are sailing down the coast during this time.


Don't be alarmed if I do not send a forecast out tomorrow as I am traveling to Blaine and just may not have time.  I will resume on Wednesday.




Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110    Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

Stephen Lewis August 9th:

Wind 0-5Kn next 4Days, Seas calm with long low swell. Sunny with dense fog at night, Motoring now. Eta Thurs. No whales. I need a latte.

View the location or send a reply to Stephen Lewis:

Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 42.315978 Lon -124.992185

Dale Carlton August 10th 09:28 hrs

Hello Doug, Karl, Lee and Bob, THANK YOU!  We appreciate all your efforts and great results. The ceremony and dock line cutting was greatly appreciated.

View the location or send a reply to Dale Carlton:

Dale Carlton sent this message from:
Lat 47.768083 Lon -122.441168

S/V Manatee August 10th 09:37 hrs

S/V Manatee motoring South near Cape Mendocino. Last nlght had poor horizontal visibility, but bright stars and waning moon.

View the location or send a reply to Stephen Lewis:

Stephen Lewis sent this message from:
Lat 40.523168 Lon -124.860242

Keep them cards and letters coming folks!


Don't worry. They'll get out of the way. I learned that driving the Saratoga. -- Captain Ron


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