Brads Weather Message for August 25th
My apologies for missing yesterday!
I see that Nutmeg is now South of Newport Oregon by 10 or 20 miles. Also it appears that Manatee is on the move heading back North perhaps. The one remaining boat yet to leave is Athanor which has plans to cut lines I believe on the 31st. Given boat positions, this forecast will be for the waters from Newport Oregon to SF.
The Large scale pattern has now shifted, and the dominant feature is an upper level low currently well off the Washington Coast. This low is currently far enough off the coast that a week ridge of high pressure remains between it and the coast itself. Light Northerlies still prevail from Flattery to San Francisco. This will change eventually to Southerly winds. The big question is when, and where? The US and European models don't completely agree on the timing, with the European model being more progressive with a quicker and wetter transition than the US GFS model. The eventual outcome will be the low will slowly drift towards the coast with a transition to S to SW winds along the coast, starting in the Washington and Northern Oregon waters first and then the southerly winds will progress down the coast likely near or all the way to San Francisco perhaps by Friday.
4 day forecast
Today August 25, 2015
Newport to SF – NW wind 10-20 with gusts to 25 possible. NW Swell 5-7' at 10-12 seconds wind waves 2-3'
Wednesday August 26
Newport to SF – N to NW wind 5-15 knots North of Cape Mendocino and NW winds 10-20 South of Cape Menodocino. Seas 4-6' from NW.
Thursday August 27
Newport to SF – Winds transitioning to light southerlies to 10 knots from Cape Mendocino North. NW wind 5-20 knots Cape Mendocino South. NW swell running at about 4'
Friday August 28
Newport to SF - S to SW winds 5—15 knots. However the wind from Pt. Arena Southward will likely be westerly. Seas W to NW swell 3-5'
Saturday August 20
Newport to SF – S to SW winds 5 – 25 knots. The strongest winds (more than 15 knots) should be confined to the waters North of Cape Mendocino. Seas, West swell 3-6' with South wind waves 1-6'.
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109http://swiftsureyachts.com/