Brads Weather Message for August 19th
Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 19, 2015
My apologies for missing the forecast yesterday, I had a long one day trip to SF and back. I'm back in the saddle this morning however.
The large scale pattern seems to be following my previous forecast. The pacific high has lost some strength and is a more oval shape flat on top and bottom extending out to the east and west. Since it has weakened, the pressure gradients off Northern California relaxed a bit yesterday in today with the strongest wind field moving more offshore. I do expect the wind to increase again mostly between the capes late tomorrow and into Saturday. It should not be as strong as it was the day before yesterday, but still small craft warning strength. Meanwhile, we do have an interesting set up in the waters off Washington and Northern Oregon. Pressure gradients are tighter up here in the coastal waters. It kind of the same situation that happens in N. California, with inland heating up generating a thermal low and reasonable high pressure ridging offshore for stronger N. winds off the Washington coast today and tomorrow. Again, not gales, but definitely in the small craft warning category. The forecast calls for an upper level trough to brush the area here in Washington late Thursday and into Friday. This will bring more clouds and possibly some rain into the forecast for the coastal waters, though it doesn't look like it will rain in Seattle.
By in large N to NW winds will persist all along the coast from Cape Flattery to SF. However, the models do show that as the pacific high retrogrades further west this coming weekend, the thermal low will extend out over the waters mainly Cape Mendocino and south. This increases the chances for light to moderate southerly winds closer to the coast south of Cape Mendocino over the weekend. In this pattern it is common also to have fog closer to the coast.
The Strait of Juan de Fuca will have a fairly strong onshore push starting this evening and lasting into Friday for stronger westerly winds probably exceeding 30 knots at times. It looks as though the westerlies will let up a bit for the weekend but it will still be breezy at times.
For the long term forecast the current GFS Model has things being reasonably mellow along the coast early next week, with the strongest winds being North of Cape Blanco for once. Stay tuned.
4 day forecast:
Today August 19, 2015
SJDF West winds starting at 10 knots building through the day up to 25-35 late tonight. Wind waves starting out at 1' or so building to 4-6' once the wind gets cranked up.
Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 15 to 30 knots. More wind in the northern portion of the forecast area. NW waves 7 to 12' at 9 seconds
Newport OR to San Francisco – NW winds 0-25. More wind North of Cape Mendocino and further offshore. The winds South of Cape Mendocino have a high probability of being light especially closer to shore. Also the possibility of fog is fairly high especially closer to shore. Seas 5-7' form the NW at 9 to 10 seconds
Thursday August 20
SJDF – West winds 10 knots in the morning building throughout the day to 20-30 with higher gusts in the late evening. Wind waves 1-5' (bigger the windier it gets).
Flattery to Newport – NW winds 10-30 with less wind closer to the coast. Fog is also a definite possibility. Seas, NW swell 9 – 12' at 9 to 10 seconds
Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30, with gusts to 35. The strongest winds will be in the evening and between the capes and probably more than 15 or 20 miles offshore. Patchy fog, especially in the morning hours is likely. Combined seas to 8' at 9 seconds
Friday August 21
SJDF – West winds 10-25 with strongest winds in the afternoon and evening. Should let up after midnight. Wind waves 1-4'
Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25 knots, less wind closer to shore with fog possible. Seas 7-9' at 9 seconds
Newport to SF – NW winds 5-30. Strongest breeze between the capes and further offshore. Patchy fog possible. Definitely getting lighter South of Mendocino and closer to shore. Seas, 8 to 10' at 9 seconds from the NW.
Saturday August 22
SJDF – West winds 0-25, 0 in the morning 25 in the evening. Wind waves 0-4'
Flattery to Newport - NW wind 5- 20, more wind the further South you go in this area. Seas 5-7' from the NW.
Newport to SF – NW winds 5-25, with gusts to 30 knot. Winds considerably lighter 10 miles or closer to shore. Seas to 7-10' from the NW
Sunday August 23
SJDF – W wind 0-25 more wind in the afternoon and evening. Wind waves 1-4'
Flattery to Newport – NW wind 10-25, seas 6-7' from the NW
Newport to SF – N to NW winds 5-15 from Cape Mendocino North with S to SE winds to 10 knots south of Cape Mendocino. There will be waves, mostly from the NW to 6'
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109
Brads (non) Weather Message for August 18th
I'm flying to San Francisco early this morning on a boat deal. I had hoped to do weather while in flight but the in service internet is proving much to slow to check weather. I hope to steel a bit of time later this morning to do a weather check. If I do get a forecast out to you it will likely be abbreviated. My apologies for the delay.
Here are a few tips for boats coming to the Berkeley Marina:
· The office is at the top of K dock. They close at 4pm.
· The only bus out here is the 51B. For $2.10 you can take it downtown and catch BART, CALTrains, or another bus. When you return to the marina, take the 51B Marina bus, not the 51B Amtrak bus—otherwise you will need to hike from the Amtrak station over the foot bridge to the marina.
· If you are going to use public transport, buy a "Clipper" card for $3 then add money to it to pay for fares—it's good on most forms of transportation in the bay area. You can buy them at Walgreens or other retail outlets (https://www.clippercard.com/ClipperWeb/map.do ). Clipper cards are accepted on BART, Caltrain, Muni, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit & Ferry and WETA (South San Francisco ferry). Not only is it more convenient than cash, but you get a discount on the regular fare too.
· You can walk into town using the foot bridge (not University Ave). It's a short walk.
· The Amtrak station is within sight of the Berkeley end of the foot bridge.
· The marina has a small boat yard with a travel lift. Berkeley Marine Center 510 843-8195.
· Laundry is a 20 min hike around the marina from K-dock.
· The Berkeley Yacht Club has Friday night races.
· Showers are free.
· There are three restaurants next to the marina (four if you include the Double Tree Inn restaurant).
· Use BART to go into San Francisco.