Brads Weather Message for August 20th
Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather, August 20, 2015
Looking at the snap track map, with the exception of Athanor, all the participants are now South of Cape Mendocino. My plan is to pass on weather info to the fleet to get them to San Francisco. It looks as though the majority of you are almost there! If any of you would like weather support beyond I highly recommend Rick Sheema who runs Weatherguy.com. Rick is a sailor himself and does an excellent job with routing. Rick is also an actual meteorologist as opposed to me who is…..well..a yacht broker. Here is a link to his site: http://weatherguy.com/tp40/Default.asp?ID=126449
Since it appears most if not all participants are South I'm going to provide one more forecast covering the entire area. If I don't hear from any stragglers then I will confine the next few and final forecasts to the area south of Cape Mendocino.
Bottom line Is Northerlies prevail up and down the coast at various strengths. Wind speeds should stay 30 knots or below for most if not all areas with lots below 20 as well. This should hold through the weekend and into early next week. The exception are the waters closer to the coast, south of Cape Mendocino where there are light southerly winds in the forecast over the weekend.
A fairly strong surge is in the forecast for the Strait of Juan de Fuca for today and tonight with 25-35 in the forecast for the afternoon and evening hours. Onshore push should continue through tomorrow, then lesson a bit but still blow over the weekend. The strongest winds today and tomorrow should be the central and eastern strait.
With the exception of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, conditions should make for some good sailing!
4 day forecast:
Today August 20
SJDF – Wests winds 10-25 rising to 25-35 in the evening for the Central and Easter Strait. Wind waves 1-6'
Cape Flattery to Newport OR – N to NW winds 10 -25 with higher gusts possible. Seas, NW swell 8' at 9 seconds with wind wave 3-5'.
Newport OR to San Francisco – N to NW winds 10-25 with higher gusts possible. Strongest winds near Cape Blanco. For the most part winds will be on average 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore. Expect fog at times especially in the waters south of Cape Mendocino. Seas, NW swell 9-10' at 9 seconds with wind waves 1-5'.
Friday August 20
SJDF - West winds 15-25 with wind waves 1-4'
Flattery to Newport – N to NW winds 10-30 with the strongest winds off the Washington coast. Seas, NW swell 9' at 8 seconds with wind waves 3-6'
Newport to SF – N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts as high as 35. Strongest winds between the capes. About 10 knots lighter 10 miles or closer to shore. Fog is a definite possibility. Winds south of Mendocino and close to shore should be relatively benign. Seas, NW swell 10 to 11' at 9 seconds with wind waves 2-6'.
Saturday August 21
SJDF – W wind 0 – 25. Light in the morning likely building in the afternoon and evening. Wind waves 0-3'
Flattery to Newport – N winds 10-20 with higher gust possible. Seas, 4-6' NW swell at 8 seconds with wind waves to 3'
Newport to SF – Forecast is for it to blow 30 from the NW Near Cape Blanco with 10-25 elsewhere. Seas should be running around 10' at 9 seconds from the NW with wind waves 1-5'. Cape Blanco area likely to be a bit bumpier. The areas south of Mendocino should remain under 20 knots and actually quite light at times especially closer to shore. Fog is in the forecast.
Sunday August 22
SJDF – West wind 15-25 knots, wind waves 1-4'
Flattery to Newport – More of the same N to NW wind 10-20 with higher gusts, Seas, NW swell 4-6' at 8 seconds with wind waves to 2-4'
Newport to SF – Moderating, N to NW winds 10-20 in the waters north of Mendocino. Light winds to 10 knots from the South in the waters South of Mendocino. Flog possible if not likely. Combined seas 4-7' from the NW
Monday August 23
SJDF – Current NWS forecast calls for 20-30 from the West.
Flattery to Newport – NW wind 5-15 with gusts to 20. NW swell 7', wind waves to 3'
Newport to SF – NW winds 20 knots or less, N of Cape Mendocino. NW 5-15 South of Cape Mendocino. Seas, Swell 3-5' from NW with wind waves 1-4'. May be foggy at times.
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109http://swiftsureyachts.com/
From Matt Aug 19th 23:42:
We played in the Gale for a bit, but the waves got bigger then reported and kept jibing us, tore a sail. Took to a line and cover in port orford. Then again winds differed from what was reported by noaa, weatherpassage and inreach and slammed us from the south around Mendocino cape. Had to eventually motor to get closer to shore since weather wOuldn't cooperate with all reports. On the way motoring back to closer to see if we could duck away from the diseagreable wind our pulley for the water pump completely sheered off and had a fin Done sailing her to shore. now we are held up In fort bragg where there is one over worked machinist/mechanic to help us get it drilled etc. Soo guess its a break from the good times till parts come in so we can fix it ourselves.
Great Times so far, but weather hang been agreeing with reports so we are trying to track down the good stuff!
Will have service for next few dats. Can catch up during this time. Hope to see you in san fran!
Alright, now stay with me: When we left, we had just enough fuel to make it to San Juan. And we are out of fuel. - Captain Ron