Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather, August 23, 2015
So there is a bit uncertainty in the longer term forecast. As often happens the models have changed since my forecast yesterday. At this point it's uncertain what the conditions will be Starting Wednesday/Thursday time frame. What the models do agree on is that an upper level low pressure system will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska during that time. The model run yesterday had this feature well offshore centered at about 140W Longitude. The same model today has it further east at about 135 degrees and showing a track that will eventually move it closer. What does this mean? I'm glad you asked. It means I don't have a clue if the prevailing winds will be from the South or the North come Wednesday Thursday, especially in the waters North of Cape Blanco. The way the models have been trending, if I had to guess, I suspect we will have Southerly winds by Thursday into Friday and that a chance of showers will be in the forecast for the Washington and Oregon coast next Friday and into the weekend. But, it is not totally clear at this point. What I can say with reasonable confidence is the conditions will remain fairly benign over the next 4 to 5 days. There remains some pressure gradient in the Southern Oregon/Northern California waters, but nothing like the Gales we had earlier. Wind direction, from Cape Mendocino, South should remain Northerly, but come Wednesday onward it's less certain for the waters North of there.
The Coho ho ho map still has Nutmeg in Westport, so I'll do a forecast that covers from there going South
Here is my best guess on the 4 day forecast. Confidence becomes iffy at day 3 and 4:
Today August 23, 2015
Westport to SF – N to NW winds 5-20, with strongest winds North of Newport OR to Cape flattery where there are small craft warning posted for today with gusts to 25. South of Cape Blanco you can expect light Southerly winds today. Seas will be running 5-6' from the NW
Monday August 24, 2015
Westport to SF – N to NW winds 5-20. Stronger winds shifting more to South of Newport. Seas running 5-6' from the NW.
Tuesday August 25, 2015
Westport to SF – N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25. The winds N. of Newport will likely stay under 15 knots. From Cape Blanco South winds will likely start to pipe up a bit into the low 20s at times with higher gusts in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will be running 5-7' from the NW.
Wednesday August 26
Westport to SF – The National Weather service says it will still be blowing N to NW all up and down the coast but it may be a transition time for the Northern Oregon and Washington waters, with probably not a lot of wind and maybe southerlies late. It's really up in the air a bit. Anyway for now lest go with N to NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25. Strongest winds will be South of Newport. The winds south of Newport are likely to be diurnal (stronger in the afternoon and evening). Seas 4-7' from the NW.
Thursday August 27
Westport to Cape Blanco – S to SW winds to 10 knots. Seas, NW swell 4' with wind waves up to 2'.
Cape Blanco to SF – N to NW winds 5-20 knots, combined seas 3-6' mostly from the NW.
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109