Karl report:
Locations as i know them August 16, friday 11:27 amsv Journey - from Lee: "spent Wednesday night at Florence. He's at 43.45.58 124.15.04, motoring in dense fog, light seas, off Reedsport headed to Cresent City. He will hole up there waiting for the winds to shift to the NW"
.
sv Non Sequitur - 8:03 am today: Due west of Columbia River basin about 20 miles out. Seas calm no wind.
sv Dawn Treader - Grays Harbor Last night (wednesday night). encountered 20kts South wind, 4-6 seas night before, died off after 3 am. watching weather before heading out
sv Unleashed - (they were in Newport yesterday)
sv Moments -
sv Ohana - at 21:00 aug 15, was in the strait of Juan De Fuca approaching Clallam
sv French Leave - turned back off Tatoosh night before last, went to Neah Bay to re-group
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Fri, Aug 16, 2013 at 9:01 AM
Subject: Weather for August 16
From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Fri, Aug 16, 2013 at 9:01 AM
Subject: Weather for August 16
Just
a few tweaks to the overall weather forecast for today. The overall
pattern is pretty much the same with the low pressure trough off the
Coast dissipating as High pressure builds from off shore. the biggest
difference is the models show the trough lingering a bit longer in the
Northern part of the forecast area from mid Oregon on up. The net
result is the Northerly winds North of Cape Blanco will be a bit slower
to fill in and participants in this area will likely experience light
southerlies or no wind at all. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending
on your disposition) the strong NW winds and associated building seas
from Cape Blanco South are still very much in the forecast.
Strait of Juan de Fuca
Variable
winds to 10 knots today, possibly changing to west winds to 15 knots
tonight. For Saturday through Tuesday it looks like you can expect a
diurnal cycle of lighter winds in the early morning building to as high
as 20 knots (likely lower though) in the late afternoon and evening
hours.
Washington and Oregon Coast North of Cape Blanco
I
wouldn’t be surprised if you have a whole lot of nothing today and
tomorrow, but the gradients do show the possibility of Southerly winds
to 10 knots. The exception being the Southern portion of this area
where the N winds will likely start to build later Saturday as you get
nearer to Cape Blanco. For Sunday, Monday and Tuesday it will depend on
where you are. If you are further South the North winds will fill
sooner. If you are off the Washington Coast you may not see the
transition until Monday. Keep in mind this is a FORECAST only.
Sometimes (some may say often) the weather does not do what the models
and the really smart meteorologists predict. It is possible that the
transition will happen sooner. When the change over does happen there
is likely to be a relatively sharp increase in the NW winds to perhaps
15 or 20 knots until it settles in. The predicted average wind speed
for the Northerlies ranges from 5 to 20 knots over this area. Sea state
forecast is a West swell 3-5 feet at 8 to 10 seconds. Wind waves
ranging from 0-3 feet depending on the wind conditions.
Southern Oregon and Northern Californian Coast Cape Blanco South
Light
winds today transitioning to the North late and starting to fill. On
Saturday the transition should be in full force as the High fills and
the inland low increases as well. Expect N to NW winds to 25 knots by
Saturday evening with Higher gusts. The gradient should put the higher
winds further offshore and lighter nearer the coast. If you are within
10 miles you can expect 5 to 10 knots less. For Sunday through Tuesday N
to NW winds 20-35knots with higher gusts. Within 10 miles of shore
(except the capes which offer no protection) wind speeds should be about
10 knots less blowing in a range from 15 to 25. This time of year
these Northerly winds become more diurnal as the inland low fluctuates
with heating and cooling as the days get shorter. Strongest winds will
be afternoon and evening with the lightest conditions occurring after
midnight into the morning hours or at least that’s what supposed to
happen. Sea state forecast is West swell to 4 feet at 11 seconds today
. NW waves to 7 feet at 8 seconds on Saturday. NW waves 11-12 feet at
only 8 to 9 seconds Sunday through Tuesday.
For
those who are inclined to wait out the strong winds and seas in the
Southern Oregon N. California, perhaps in Coos Bay, the long range
models do show the Pattern easing a bit starting Late Wednesday of next
week. Beware though that a forecast this far out is always suspect and
subject to change.
Brad
Brad Baker l Swiftsure Yachts
2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F l Seattle, WA 98109
Office: 206.378.1110 l Cell: 206.920.7147 l Fax: 206.378.1124
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