Weather Brief and boat locations August 23 friday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August 2_  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - Departed Eureka with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - 10:33 Heading into Fort Bragg for refuel and head south

sv Dawn Treader - last heard to be south of Coos Bay

sv Unleashed - Departed Eureka headed south.  20kts wind, 4-6 following swell.  Boat and crew happy. Most likely Bodega bay to wait for daylight.
sv Moments - 12:21 Moments will leave Newport tonight or more likely tomorrow morning for Eureka.
sv Ohana - 08:38 "Stopped in Crescent City, CA to refuel and drop off crew... next and final stop Half Moon Bay CA"

and now, Brads Weather Brief:

(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Fri, Aug 23, 2013 at 7:51 AM
Subject: August 23 weather

The National Weather Service Forecast and what the models have been showing over the last few days has verified.  A trough has set up shop off the Oregon and Washington coast at about 140 of Longitude.  The NWS forecast discussion says this trough will spin a series of weak weather systems called short waves towards the coast.  All n all this means light mostly southerly winds for areas north of the California Border, punctuated by periods of rain and some increased wind.    When I say increased wind I suspect absolute max will be 20 knots.  The real issue will likely be very light conditions with limited visibility due to fog and low clouds.  The trough is projected to hang around at least into the first part of next week.  Meanwhile Weak high pressure appears to be directly to the South of the Trough.  This combined with lower pressure inland from heating should produce decent gradients for Northerly winds south of the California border.  The strongest gradients will be further south making for some good sailing conditions as you get closer to SF bay.

Navigational note for those stopping in SF:  There is a Shoal to the West and North of the entrance to the bay called Four Fathom Bank, more commonly known to the locals as the "Potato Patch".    Normally you are OK to sail directly over this area.  However, with a ebb tide and strong NW or W winds, large standing and breaking waves will develop here and it's best to steer clear of this area when it's windy.  There is a channel inside the bank as well as the main channel outside.    The bank is clearly marked on charts.  FYI

Now for the Forecast

Flattery to California Border

Today through Monday - conditions ranging from light variable South winds to South winds reaching as high as 20 knots.    Right now it looks like the strongest winds will be late tonight/early tomorrow then perhaps again on Monday.   It will be lighter the further south you go in this forecast area.  There will likely be rain at times with low clouds and fog possible.  (I guess fog is always a possibility on the coast).

Seas – West Swell to 4 feet at 9 seconds, wind waves 0-3 feet

California Border to SF

Today – Monday   Light winds mostly out of the N. 0-15 knots in the North half of the Forecast area (NWS shows south to 10 on Monday only).  For the Southern half of the forecast area you should have Moderate winds 10-25 knots all out of the N.

Seas – NW swell 3-6 feet at 8-10 seconds, wind waves 1- 5'

Brad