Monday, August 19, 2013

Weather window from Newport OR

karl and doug suggest you check all available sources!

From: Brad Baker
Date: Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 3:01 PM
Subject: RE: Weather window from Newport OR

Supplementary weather for the Newport Oregon folks heading for SF.

If the weather models and the forecasters are to be believed The wind speeds
between Cape Blanco to Cape Mendocino should blow a gale today all the way
into Wednesday.   This isn't an exact science.  Case in point, I just
checked Buoy reports for both buoy # 46015 which is 15 NM west of Port
Orford (very near cape Blanco).  The wind is blowing 20 knots right now and
has been for the last 24 hours.  The wave height as been consistent at about
6 feet  at 10 seconds.     At Buoy 46022, which is 17 WSW of Eureka,  It's
currently blowing NNE at 8 knots.  over the last 24 hours it peaked at 21
knots at 8am this morning but otherwise has been blowing under 20 knots.
Interestingly the waves are hovering at about 10 feet but at only 8 seconds.
Both these buoys are near that 10 mile boundary where the wind should start
getting significantly stronger the further you get offshore.  The fact that
the waves are 10 feet at the very short period of 8 seconds in only 8 knots
of wind off Eureka tells me that there are a lot stronger winds somewhere
nearby (probably 20 to 30 miles out).   I think what we can take from this
is the winds are, and probably will remain, moderate closer to shore, but
the comfort level will still suffer with the sea state if you were out there
right now.  Combine that with the fact the models and the National Weather
Service predict the peak winds to be tonight and tomorrow it might be wise
to wait for a better weather window.

So, the models show a few things happening starting Wednesday.  The pressure
gradient should lessen and winds should moderate.  The area of strongest
breeze looks as though it will migrate North to, wouldn't you know it, right
off Newport Oregon.   If the Model and the forecasters are to be believed
things point to the window looking better starting Wednesday afternoon.  I
suspect things won't be the most comfortable initially.  Even though the
strongest winds are now off Newport the wind speed shouldn't exceed 25 knots
on Wednesday with seas to 8 or 9 feet.    Things look to moderate more on
Thursday likely staying under 20 knots.  I suspect conditions will fluctuate
and it will make a substantial difference based on how close you decide to
stay from land.  20 miles or more out and the top wind speed could reach as
high as 25 knot at any given time on the trip to SF.  Closer than 10 miles
in and perhaps 15 knots might be the max you see.  As I said before, not an
exact science.  What you can rely on is that the winds will blow what they
are blowing where you are.  How's that for a deep intelligent statement.
There is the potential winds could actually get significantly lighter than
the maximums I just cited.   It's fairly complex but if the inland low
drifts more offshore the wind could shut all together in places over late
Thursday and Friday.   So if at some point you end up in no wind and
confused seas, I'm sorry, you've been warned and may you have an iron

I wish I could be more precise, but I'm not that smart!  If you leave
sometime past midday Wednesday I think the winds will stay 25knots and under
(I hope).  Since you are in Newport you should be able to get the NOAA radio
reports for the most up to date forecast and I recommend you check those
prior to leaving.    As the winds decrease the sea state will get better but
will still likely be relatively short period chop.  The best news is the
winds should be with you most if not all the way (Knock on wood) to SF and
you should get some good surfs in.  I hope this helps.


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