Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 18, Sunday

Karl report:

Locations as I know them August  18

sv Journey - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - Departed Newport this morning

sv Dawn Treader - Leaving Newport his morning.  Crew from French Leave - Ron and Joyce - have joined the boat.  Update 14:00 - they left this morning, going 17 miles out, heading for Eureka, but might duck in to Coos Bay if the weather turns bad.  They have a Tuna rig out.

sv Unleashed - in Eureka, watching weather
sv Moments - Adam called in.  They are in westport leaving south on monday
sv Ohana - in Newport.  Tacked in from 70 nm offshore
sv French Leave - reported in Tachoma

and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker

7:53 AM

The forecast from yesterday seems to be verifying and there are no real changes today.  I suppose the most significant difference is that the National Weather Service text forecast has upped the wind strengths for the offshore waters south of Cape Blanco and have issued a Gale warning through at least Tuesday.  My forecast from yesterday already included winds to 35 knots which they are now forecasting.  There will be higher gusts and it is possible sustained winds could reach 40 at the peak in these areas.   The models continue to show the gradients loosening up starting Wednesday evening and it looks as though there will be a good weather window in the second half of the week,  with brisk but hopefully not too brisk Northerly winds.    I'm beginning to buy in to this scenario as I see consistency from run to run in the models. 

Because of the variability up and down the coast I've broken up the areas a bit more.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

Light to moderate onshore flow through Thursday.  Expect a diurnal cycle of lighter winds early morning to early afternoon building in the late afternoon and peaking in the evening.  Wind speeds will range from 5 to 20 (perhaps 25 on Monday night)

Cape Flattery to Newport Oregon

Light Southerlies to 10 knots today, transitioning to N – NW winds over the nighttime hours to 15 knots (stronger northerly the further south you are)

Mon – Wed  Diurnal cycle to the winds with the strongest winds being evening beforemidnight.  Speeds will vary from 5 knots to 25 knots with the cycle.  Winds will be strongest in the southern portion of this forecast area.  

Sea state West to NW swell 5 to 6 feet. Look for the wind waves to get as high as 4 feet in peak winds. and be more from the NW to N direction.

Newport Oregon to Cape Blanco

National Weather service has issued small craft warnings through at least Tuesday (I suspect they will extend into Wednesday).  Winds are likely to be diurnal in nature here as well.

Today N to NW winds to 15 morning and early afternoon rising to as high as 30 knots this evening.

Mon-Tues N to NW winds 15 to 30

Wednesday N to NW winds 10 to 20

Sea state the underlying swell should be light at up to 5 feet the real story are the wind waves which will reach as high as 7 feet and will be confused with short wave periods.

Cape Blanco South

Gale warnings in effect through Tuesday for waters beyond 10 miles out.  Diurnal winds.  Winds are also forecast to be lighter if you stay within 10 miles of the coast.  Figure about 10 knots less than the numbers below.

Today N to NW winds 20-30 with higher gusts

Mon – Tuesday N to NW winds 20-35 with higher gusts

Wednesday N to NW winds 20-30 easing to 10-20 through the day

Longer term Thursday and beyond it appears the winds will still be out of the North but perhaps peaking at 20 knots as opposed to 35.

Sea State Full on washing machine action with steep and at times breaking waves to 11 feet through Wednesday.