Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Weather Brief and boat locations August 27, Tuesday

Karl report: Locations as I know them August 26  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com
sv Journey - Half Moon Bay
sv Non Sequitur - in Port- Alemeda S.F.
sv Dawn Treader - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Moments -yesterday:  left Eureka bound for SF
sv Ohana - Half Moon Bay CA.

Mega Kudos to Brad for his weather support!
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Tue, Aug 27, 2013 at 8:13 AM
Subject: August 27 weather

It has been my pleasure to help with weather for the Cohohoho.     Hopefully I got it right more than I got it wrong.  It appears that most the boats have made the passage to San Francisco safely.   Having made the trip up and down the coast several times myself, I truly wish I were out there with you.   For those of you continuing on South lots of great anchorages and experience await you.  If you have the chance, make the stop and set the hook at San Simeon.    This is a good anchorage in Northerly winds and you can catch the shuttle up for the Hearst Castle tour.  The bay itself is alive with abundant sea life and diving birds.    The Channel Islands are great.  We really enjoyed our stay at Santa Cruz Island as well.    I wish you all the best.
I will not be continuing with daily weather reports, but remain at your disposal.    Don't hesitate to contact me.
I will keep any eye on weather and the fleet and will likely make a report from time to time.

The forecast is nearly identical to yesterdays.    The dominant weather feature is a low pressure system hanging out off the Washington coast.   The current models show variations on this pattern all the way into the weekend.  There are indications that the low will push inland sometime Monday with a pattern change starting Tuesday where high pressure and northerlies on the coast starting Tuesday.   At 7 days out confidence is not high in this coming to pass, but there is a glimmer of hope for those wanting to start down the coast.  In any case the National Weather Service forecasters are calling for an organized system to come ashore late Thursday afternoon and evening.   Though the details are different the result could very well be the same as the front that passed us by yesterday.    Building south winds should be expected on Thursday from cape Blanco north eventually blowing 20-30 by Thursday evening.    Northern California waters should stay relatively benign from cape Mendocino South, with light to moderate W to NW winds blowing between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco.  South of San Francisco will likely see Moderate to heavy NW winds during the next few days for anyone deciding to venture further South.

Cape Flattery to Cape Mendocino
Today and Wednesday – S winds 5-15 (higher gusts possible) rain at times
Thursday – S winds 5-15 in the morning building to 15-25 with gusts exceeding 30 knots at times in the evening.  Rain
Friday – winds subsiding a bit with Southerlies 10-20, should dry up a bit with scattered showers
Saturday – South winds to 15
Seas – Swell 3-6 feet with wind waves 1-5 feet.  The swell will subside today, with lowest waves Wednesday then begin to build again Thursday
The strongest Southerly winds look to be Cape Blanco North during this forecast period

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco
Today thru Saturday – Variations on W to NW winds 5-20.  Patchy night and morning fog.
Seas 3 to 6 feet.  Wind waves 1-3 feet
Periods of higher sustained winds are always possible in this area with the diurnal cycle so keep this in mind and be prepared to reef accordingly.

San Francisco to Point Conception
Today thru Saturday – NW winds 15-25 with higher gusts (especially higher near Point Conception)  Winds will likely be less within 10 miles of the coast.
Seas – 4 to 7 feet with wind waves to 3 to 6 feet, all should be from the NW.

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