Saturday, August 24, 2013

Weather Brief and boat locations August 24, Saturday

Karl report:
Locations as I know them August 24
sv Journey - in Bodega Bay "...after getting pretty beat up about sunset last night"
sv Non Sequitur - 09:48 Approaching Golden Gate Bridge, going to Alameda this evening
sv Dawn Treader - crossed under Golden Gate in the night, is now in Clipper Cove
sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F. "sailed under the golden gate bridge last night at 21:27 hrs"
sv Moments - 10:45 Leaving Newport for Eureka, where they will wait for low pressure to pass
sv Ohana - 07:20 22nm away from rounding Cape Mendocino, staying about 16nm off cape
and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")
From: Brad Baker
Date: Sat, Aug 24, 2013 at 9:02 AM
Subject: August 24 weather

The overall pattern remains the same with differences in the fine details the models are putting out.   I'm beginning to sound like a broken record.    The model and the National Weather Service forecasters have flip flopped on wind direction for the Oregon and Washington Coast in the short term and now show some lighter NW or W winds perhaps today and into tomorrow, but are more aggressive with a system moving in on Monday with Moderate to the low end of heavy South winds extending all the way down to Cape Mendocino.   If this comes to pass this system will affect pressure gradients south Of Mendocino making for lighter NW winds than previously forecast early next week.     The forecasters don't have a lot of confidence in the long term, my best guess is the trough off the coast will stay put well into next week bringing variations on South winds and rain at times maybe all the way to Friday for CA/OR border Northward.   With the exception of Monday the prevailing winds should remain out of the NW from the Oregon/California Border South.  But these winds will remain in the Light to Moderate Category.

Cape Flattery to CA/OR border

Today – Pretty light, perhaps starting out of SW and shifting to W or Even North.  Wind speeds 0-15
Sunday – Gradients go pretty light, models show winds shifting back to a more southerly direction.  This transition will happen from N to S with Southerlies starting perhaps in the Morning off Washington, but not shifting to South until late in the evening nearer the CA/OR border.
Monday – South winds 5-20 with gusts to 25 knots.  Winds will start lighter, building throughout the day. The timing could change on this but currently the model has frontal passage late Monday night.  Rain
Tuesday & Wednesday - South winds 5-15 knots.
Seas – swell to 5 feet, wind waves to 0-5 feet

CA/OR border to San Francisco

Today & Sunday – NW winds 10-20
Monday – South winds to 15 North of Cape Mendocino otherwise NW winds 5-15 (perhaps higher near SF)
Tuesday & Wednesday NW winds 5-20, more wind the further South you are.
Seas – Swell to 2-5 feet, wind waves to 4 feet


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