Thursday, August 22, 2013

Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 22

Karl report:
Locations as I know them August 22
sv Journey - departed Eureka this morning, headed south
sv Non Sequitur - 06:48 "Departed Coos Bay yesterday, currently 30 miles offshore west of Crescent City.  No wind, patchy fog, 2-4 foot swell"
sv Dawn Treader - (?) south of Coos Bay
sv Unleashed - Left Eureka this morning, continuing to San Francisco
sv Moments - (?)Grays Harbor
sv Ohana - this morning:  10 miles off Seal Rock, south of Newport.   Message 14:22 wednesday:  "145 nm north of CA Border, under full sail, averaging 5.8 kts, dreaming of palm trees and sand beaches" 09:43 "Dolphins off our bow and no wind"
and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

From: Brad Baker
Date: Thu, Aug 22, 2013 at 8:12 AM
Subject: August 22 Weather

There is only on real change to my forecast which effects anyone who is going to be North of Coos bay this weekend.  It looks as though Southerly winds will linger though the weekend ( In yesterdays forecast I called for North winds Sat and sun).    The transition is taking place and winds should have lightened significantly over the Southern half of the forecast area.   A quick look at the buoy reports shows me that it currently blowing a whopping 1.9 knots out of the WNW at Cape Blanco and coincidentally 1.9 knots out of the SE off of Eureka.    A trough is in the process of replacing the higher pressure off the Oregon and Washington coasts and looks as though it will linger off the Washington coast through the weekend.  The High is going bye bye off to the west.  The thermal low which has drifted out over Northern California will linger today dissipating by late tonight.   The result should be North winds gradually growing lighter today North of Cape Blanco.  South of Cape B it will be a mixed bag but more than likely a whole lot of nothing for much of the day until the Northerlies resume hopefully sooner than later (perhaps tonight).     Friday sees a change with the models showing S winds North of Cape Blanco and N. winds South of Cape Blanco.  Overall windspeed and sea state look fairly benign through the weekend, though seas could get kicked up a little the closer you get to SF as the winds increase this weekend, but it should be very manageable.

Flattery to Cape Blanco

Today – North Winds 5-15 knots (gusts to 20)
Friday through Sunday - South winds 0 -15 (briefly to 20 with frontal passage possible) the strongest south winds will be off Washington otherwise I'd expect things to be more on the light side as in the possibility of no wind at times
Longer term is point towards Northerly winds returning perhaps on Monday
Seas -  Swell shouldn't exceed 5 feet.  Wind waves to 3 feet in the stronger breezes

Cape Blanco to SF

Today – Hmmmmm.  light and Variable to 10
Tonight – I'm going with filling N to NW winds 0-15, that's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Firday – N winds 5-15 (perhaps gusting to 20 with diurnal cycle)
Saturday N winds 5-20 (higher gusts possible)
Sunday N winds 10-25 (see comment above from Saturday)

The strongest winds look to be More toward SF, so as you get south it should steadily build.

Seas -  should be around 5 feet as far as the swell goes at 7 to 10 seconds.  Wind waves will occur, well, when there is wind.  All n all should be reasonably comfortable seas though.

My experience has been in the Northern California waters when the forecast is for light to moderate Northerlies (like it is now) it still can mysteriously blow stronger, sometimes significantly stronger.  I don't know why this is, but it seems to happen mostly the first part of the evening(but can happen any time) so it's probably a diurnal effect with land heating blah, blah blah.  Just keep mind that it can pick up and be prepared for it. 


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