Monday, August 26, 2013

Weather Brief and boat locations August 26, monday

Karl report: Locations as I know them August 26
sv Journey - Half Moon Bay
sv Non Sequitur - in Port- Alemeda S.F.
sv Dawn Treader - in Port- Clipper Cove, S.F.
sv Unleashed - in Port- Berkeley Marina S.F.
sv Moments - 01:00 arrived in Eureka about an hour ago, to depart again this afternoon
sv Ohana - 07:02 "We have arrived! Half Moon Bay CA.  900 miles of offshore sailing achieved! Now for sleep"

and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")
From: Brad Baker
Date: Mon, Aug 26, 2013 at 8:05 AM
Subject: August 26 weather

The weather models are sticking with a trough and associated low pressure system persisting off the NW Coast for at least the next 5 days.  In the short there are small craft warning that extend from Cape Flattery all the way to Just south of Cape Blanco.  A fairly substantial cold front will pass through the Washington and Oregon coastal waters today, probably really getting cranked up by the time this forecast goes out to the fleet.   Peak winds out of the South to 30 knots can be expected just before and with frontal passage, then shifting to the SW after the front and subsiding rather quickly.  Oh, and it's gonna rain.  There might even be a lightning strike or two in the coastal waters.   Actual timing for the front itself should be early to mid afternoon and will be inland by late this evening (that means we get rain here in Seattle later today L which my lawn will likeJ).  Beyond today, with the low wobbling like a top offshore,  conditions will remain unsettled off the Washington and Oregon Coasts with prevailing winds out of the south.   It looks like the next organized system will be towards the end of the week, but timing of stuff like this can change.   In contrast for the Northern California waters, pressure gradients should remain light over the next at least 4 day.  This means light to moderate W to NW winds from Cape Mendocino South.  The gradients do pick up a bit mid California to Southern California, so from about SF south I'd say winds will be more in the moderate category.

For any of you waiting for a good weather window to start down the coast it looks as though the pattern may change in about 1 week to a more northerly pattern for the Washington and Oregon waters. 

Cape Flattery to Cape Mendocino

Today – Small craft warnings from Cape Blanco South.  South winds this morning at 15 knots building to 20-30 knots this afternoon (higher gust).  Rain.  Wind shifting to the SW in the evening and subsiding late to 10-20 most likely after midnight.  There is a reasonable chance of lightning today through this evening in coastal waters.

Tues & Weds – Variations on South winds 5-15 knots, rain and or fog possible.

Thurs & Friday – Actual timing is in question but it looks like another front with winds 15-25 from the south possible sometime these days.
For this entire forecast period wind should be stronger the further North you are in the forecast area (Washington and N. Oregon coasts).  Winds between Capes Blanco and Mendocino should remain light to moderate

Seas – W to SW swell 6 to 7 feet peaking Monday evening with wind waves to 6 feet as well.    Otherwise Swell 3 to 5 feet with wind waves 1-3 feet

Cape Mendocino to San Francisco

Today – Thursday - W to NW winds 5-15 knots.  There will be times with little or no wind and certainly fog is always a factor in these waters.

Friday – It's a bit distant in the forecast but it looks like gradients should increase for winds to 20 knots out of the NW on Friday.

Seas not exceeding 6' with wind waves 1-3 feet.


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