Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Weather Brief and boat locations August 20, Tuesday

Karl report:
Locations as I know them August 20 - since most of the boats are still holed up in port waiting for a weather window before proceeding, i've had fewer location updates.  I'll update on the blogsite as get more responses:  http://cohohoho.blogspot.com

sv Journey - in Eureka watching weather
sv Non Sequitur - in Coos Bay, watching weather
sv Dawn Treader - in Coos Bay:  "...Yesterdays run from Newport to Coos Bay was a good day.  Sailed from buoy to buoy.  All conditions, light to heavy winds.  Sailed mostly wing on wing poled out headsail.  Speeds from 2 - 6.8 knots with winds up to 15 knots.  Seas were not too bad sometimes very flat, 2' less, to 5 - 6' combined.
Life is good on a boat."
sv Unleashed -  in Eureka watching weather
sv Moments - reported in Westport day-before yesterday
sv Ohana - in Newport waiting weather window  11:46 am via email: "Looking at leaving around 1:30am Wednesday morning on slack to exit bar.  Planning on going direct to Half Moon Bay."

and now, Brads Weather Brief:
(Note: "It is highly recommended that you use multiple sources for weather. Shortened weather briefings may leave out important details. Mariners are responsible for his or her Vessel situation and crew.")

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker
Date: Tue, Aug 20, 2013 at 8:07 AM
Subject: August 20 weather

Change is in the air.   But, for now Northerly winds prevail up and down the coast.   The choke point remains Southern Oregon and Northern California between capes Blanco and Mendocino.   It looks like winds will be the strongest today with sustained 40 knots possible if you happen to be in just the right spot.    A transition starts Wednesday with the gfs model showing  the thermal inland low/trough moving inland and away from the coast.  As this is happen the high pressure system  offshore also retrogrades to well offshore and a cold front sweeps through to the Oregon and Washington waters.  This transitions all occurs starting Wednesday with the model showing a cold front bringing Southerly winds to Oregon and Washington for a relatively brief period on Friday.  Although the strongest winds are currently near the California/Oregon border, winds are forecasted to be brisk all the way up the coast until at least Thursday.  For those planning to resume their trip Wednesday, conditions will likely still be boisterous, but should improve Thursday into Friday.

Coast from Cape Blanco to Cape Flattery
Today and Wednesday – North winds 10-25 knots with higher gusts to 30 or so
Thursday – North Winds 10 – 20 knots with higher gusts.  Winds should ease quite a bit after midnight
Friday – South winds 0-15 knots
Saturday – light West or SW winds to 10 knots
Seas -  Swell as high a 6 feet with up to 4' wind waves on top of the that from the NW subsiding starting Thursday to as low as 3 foot swell and 1' wind waves

Cape Blanco to San Francisco
Today – Gale warnings for high winds and Hazardous seas  between capes Blanco and Mendocino.   N winds 25-40 knots.  South of Cape Mendocino, N winds 10 to 30 knots with substantially less wind the further south you get.
Wednesday – Winds easing a bit to North 20-30 between the capes.    South of Cape Mendocino N winds 5-20 with more wind North and less wind South.   The NWS says there will be a light chance of thunderstorms as well J
Thursday - Saturday – for the entire area N winds 5-25 knots with the strongest winds transitioning to the Southern portion of the forecast area.   NWS says slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.
As usual the forecast calls for less wind the closer to land you are, and you can expect 10 knots less wind 10 miles and closer.
Seas  -  up to 13' between the capes with short period and steep often breaking faces.  As the winds back off the seas will also and it should be very noticeable by Thursday.  by the weekend things look downright mellow with 3' swell and as high as 3' wind waves. 

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