Weather Brief and Boat Locations August 17, Friday

Karl report:

Locations as i know them August  17

sv Journey - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Unleashed
sv Non Sequitur - in Newport
sv Dawn Treader - last reported in Greys Harbor yesterday
sv Unleashed - in Eureka, hooked up with sv Journey "Glad to be on land"
sv Moments - in Westport "burned diesel for a while, waiting til monday to head south"
sv Ohana - 40 nm offshore off Seaside OR, heading for Newport
sv French Leave - "... is in Port Angeles, and is retiring from this effort after two successive nights 14 and 15 August) of unpleasant offshore conditions.  Ron Costi and Joyce Smith are enroute via car to Newport, where they will join Dawn Treader as additional crew for at least the Newport - Eureka leg.  They heard about Jim Lussier's and Jeff's legendary culinary capabilities and caught the next thing on four wheels headed south."

and now, Brads Weather Information:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Sat, Aug 17, 2013 at 9:36 AM
Subject: Weather

No real changes to the forecast with the overall pattern being high pressure building offshore.    There is indication that the Northern boundary of the high pressure ridge will be off the Washington coast.   Looking at the National Weather Service discussion the forecasters talk about week upper level troughs brushing the area.   I think this means the conditions off the Washington coast will be changeable wind direction wise, but not excessive staying below 15 knots, and there will be drizzle fog and rain at times.  The rest of the forecast area should switch to a more Northerly pattern with stronger winds building South of Cape Blanco as the pressure gradient increases between the High pressure offshore and the inland low pressure.  Looking at the most recent GFS grib file the gradients don't appear to be quite a tight indicating perhaps a little less wind then forecast but don't count on it.

Strait of Juan de Fuca

The National Weather service is going with a bit stronger onshore flow than predicted yesterday with West winds 10-15 today building to 10-20 tonight.  Having done almost 30 Swiftsure races I can tell you that you need to expect just about anything in the Strait.  It will be calm at times punctuated by Westerly pushes.  The good news is there are NO weather features that would indicate a gale.  So expect winds up to 20 knots out of the West through Wednesday punctuated by No wind.

Washington and Oregon Coast North of Cape Blanco

Today:  North of Newport Oregon I'm going with West winds to 10 with perhaps a more southerly direction closer to shore.   For South of Newport starting out light to 10 from the West switching to N – NW and building to as high as 15 especially as you get nearer Cape Blanco.  Winds get lighter the closer you get to the coast especially within 10 miles

Sun-Tues:  Newport North,  winds from Variable directions 0-15 knots, with the likelyhood being  a more consistently North wind direction the closer you get to New port.  South of Newport N winds 10-25 knots

Sea state Today to Wednesday:   for North Portion, Swell 2 to 5 feet at 10-11 seconds from the West and wind waves 0 to 2 feet.   South portion swell 2 – 3 feet at 10 – 11 seconds from the west today.  And as you might imagine shifting to the NW building to as high as 7 feet at 8-10 seconds.

Oregon and Northern California Coast South of Cape Blanco

It looks as though the strongest winds will be between Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino,   If the current model hold true the peak with be Monday and Tuesday.   The National Weather Service text forecasts say (and the gfs grib agrees) that the winds will be lighter closer to shore within 10 miles.

Today:  N to NW winds to 10 knots this morning building to as high as 20 tonight (higher gusts)

Sunday – Wednesday:  N  to NW winds 20-35 with higher gusts for waters 10 miles and further out.  For 10 miles and further in expect N – NW winds 5 -20.

Sea state will be a "washing machine"  from the NW with steep short period waves building with the wind.  NOAA says the wave height will reach as high as 12 feet at the peak for the offshore waters.  For the inshore waters, though the wind will be less you will still have a washing machine with waves to 10 feet.

The Longer Term shows conditions moderating by Thursday, but still blowing out of the N to 20 knots.  It's still too far in the future to trust this forecast but it is looking promising that the winds will mellow a bit.