Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014: Brads weather brief, August 31 sunday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 31, 2014

 

Yesterday's forecast seems to be on track.  The GFS weather model has been consistent with the pattern.  The pacific high is marching east and is forecast to then drift to the North over the next 4 or 5 days.   The Thermal low generated by the hotter temperatures inland of N. CA will continue to interact with the high pressure creating an area of wind off the N. CA coast that will have moderate to strong N to NW winds and the short wave period choppy/confused seas that come along with those winds.  The latest GFS model shows the thermal low pushing a bit to the NW as the pacific high drifts north.  This is why the wind field will extend further north extending into Oregon waters.  Another side effect should be that the waters closer to land from about Mendocino South should go to a pattern where there will be less wind closer to shore.  This pattern should be well in place by later Tuesday into Wednesday. 

 

4 day Forecast (all are From Coos Bay to SF)

 

Today August 31, 2014

 

From Coos Bay to Cape Mendocino, Light to Moderate N to NW winds 5-20 k with the lighter winds further South in this area.  The winds should increase as the day goes on.  From Mendocino to SF winds will are forecast at NW 15-25 with gust to 30.  There will likely be a bit less wind 10 miles or closer to shore for the entire forecast area.  Seas, combined seas to 10', obviously less where there is less wind.

 

Labor Day

 

N to NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  The wind will likely be a bit less north of Cape Blanco.  The South of Blanco there should be relief 10 miles or closer to shore.  As the wind increases the seas will become steep and confused with a short wave period.

 

Tuesday September 2

 

N to NW winds 10-30 with gusts to 35.  Strongest winds will likely be from Cape Blanco to Point Reyes.   With the thermal low pushing more to the west the waters closer to shore should offer relief from wind.  This should be most pronounced 10 miles or closer to shore.   Combined seas to 12' with very short wave period

 

Wednesday September 3

 

N to NW winds 15 -30 with gusts as high as 35 in the windiest locations.  Strongest winds between the capes.  Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.   Combined seas 12 with shore wave period.  The biggest seas will likely be near Cape Mendocino.

 

Thursday September 4

 

Maybe mellowing a bit, let's go with N to NW wind 10-25 kts with gusts to 30.  The stronger are forecast to extend to about mid Oregon Coast.  From Cape Blanco south there should be less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.  Combined seas to 10'. 

 

 

 

 

 

Coho Ho Ho Sailing Rally 2014 - Boat Locations

most of our boats are in california, or almost Yah!  karl

8:27pm Morris posted:  We (Impulsive) have arrived at our new marina home in San Diego for the next two months. We wish you all good luck. Admiral Debbie & First Mate Morris. 

6:47 pm morris posted:  Impulsive is at Long Beach. All is well.

yesterday scott posted:  The boat Velvet Sky will leave Coos Bay on Tuesday or Wednesday bound for SF. 

August 30 (yesterday) Kaye posted:  Ahoy Coho bunch,Sonamara, Namaste, and The Abby Normals arrived yesterday at Bodega Bay, CA.  Haven't had any contact with Impulse for a few days. Where are you Impulse?  We all took a stroll to town last night for dinner and found a good Mexican restaurant.  The walk home in the dark through the campground and back road was an adventure!    Clear and sunny today which is a welcome relief after days of fog and low clouds. Not sure of departure dates from Bodega Bay, but do know Namaste is here until at least Tues. Cheers and safe travels,

August 30 (yesterday) chris posted:  Sorry there has been no update from Impulse recently, but we have been busy at Sea!  I think Cindy already sent a message so I will keep this short.  We arrived safely in San Francisco (Brisbane Marina) where we will keep the boat for 3-4 weeks before continuing on to San Diego.  We made stops in Crescent City and Ft. Bragg on the way.  A good celebratory dinner was had for our first successful ocean passage!  Cheers to all and thanks for keeping us company down the coast!

The motley crews of Sonamara, Namaste, and Abby Normal at Children's Bell Tower, Bodega Bay

Fwd: Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations and news August 30, Saturday

boat locations as i have them 11:27 saturday  karl

10:19 am, Kaye posted:  Sonamara, Namaste, and The Abby Normals arrived yesterday at Bodega Bay, CA.  Haven't had any contact with Impulse for a few days. Where are you Impulse?  We all took a stroll to town last night for dinner and found a good Mexican restaurant.  The walk home in the dark through the campground and back road was an adventure!    Clear and sunny today which is a welcome relief after days of fog and low clouds. Not sure of departure dates from Bodega Bay, but do know Namaste is here until at least Tues.Cheers and safe travels,

6:02 am Morris posted:  We (Impulsive) arrived in Ventura yesterday afternoon after a 34 hour run from Monterey. All is well.

5:35 pm yesterday Brad posted:  Abby Normal is in Bodega Bay. I think we will be waiting out the winds a day to two with Sonamara and Namaste. All is well ;-)

2:47pm yesterday Jim posted:  I'm at Schoonmaker Point marina in Sausalito for the next 3 days. My crew flew back to Seattle today and my wife and daughter arrive tomorrow. If anyone wants to come by, they said a boat could raft up to me for a few hours. The big Arts Festival is a 5 minute walk and is going on all weekend. Let me know if you're interested.

2:48pm yesterday Keving posted:  We're at Berkely till Sunday. Then thinking of angel Island anchor or Sausalito

yesterday cindy posted:  Friday - 1:30PM - Impulse stopped at Ft. Bragg for fuel.  Seas were quiet the past couple of days so not much sailing.  We are headed directly to SF and plan to bypass Bodega Bay.  Hope to arrive at Brisbane Marina sometime tomorrow afternoon, our final destination until closer to the Baja HaHa. Will let you know for sure.

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014: Brads weather brief August 30 Saturday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 30, 2014

 

Except a couple of boats that are departing later, it looks as though the remaining fleet still on the water is closing in on San Francisco.  I'll continue weather reports through Monday unless everyone has reached SF by before then.   All the boats appear to be in California Waters so I will confine my reports to that vicinity.

 

There are no significant changes to the forecast.  The pacific high pressure is moving in from the west combining with the inland thermal low.  The strongest wind field has been blowing south of Cape Mendocino.  As the high builds this wind field will expand further North and build with the strongest winds in the usual location between the capes.  It does appear that the wind field will extend well south of SF though for moderate to strong NW winds all the way to SF.   In general the gradients are going to tighten and it will be pretty darn windy at times in these Northern California waters.

 

4 day forecast for the Northern California Waters

 

Today August 30 – North winds 10-20 north of Cape Mendocino.   NW winds 15-25 South of Cape Mendocino.  Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore except Pt. Arena South.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' at 6 seconds, wind waves 3-6'.  Some remaining south swell

 

Sunday August 31 – North winds 10-20 north of Cape Mendocino.  South of the Cape NW winds 15-30 with the strongest winds Pt. Arena South.  Seas, NW swell 7' with wind waves 4-7'.

 

Monday September 1 – The wind field should extend to the OR border by the afternoon.  N to NW winds 15-30 with higher guests.  Combined seas to 12' (there will be steep breaking waves)

 

Tuesday September 2 -  NW wind 15-30 with gusts to 35.  Strongest winds between the capes.  Combined seas to 13'

 

Wednesday September 3 – N to NW winds 15-30 with higher gusts.  Strongest winds between the capes.  Combined seas 11-13 '

 

Brad

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 Brads Weather brief: August 29 Friday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 29 2014

 

Things are in flux, the pacific high pressure is centered clear out around 170 degrees of Longitude.  There is moderate low pressure centered just off SE Alaska.  A weak cold front passed through the Pacific NW earlier this morning and the PNW is under the influence of upper level low pressure, bringing southerly surface winds, precipitation at times and cooler temperatures here in WA.   The PNW weather influences the weather off Oregon bringing mostly light winds with some southerly directions in the short term. For N. CA short term forecast has wind for the entire forecast area with that thermal inland low generating enough pressure gradient off the N. CA coast to generate some moderate NW wind (granted some might call what I'm calling moderate as strong, but trust me the winds can blow a lot stronger in these waters).

 

For the longer term the models continue to show the pacific high moving east, setting up shop at approx. 42N 142W by Tuesday Sept 2nd.  At about 1026 mb the GFS weather model doesn't have the high pressure being all that strong which allows disturbed cooler weather to persist over the PNW into next week.  With high pressure moving closer to the coast the gradients should increase in N. CA and the winds should pipe up From Southern Oregon all the way to SF with the strongest breeze from just N. of Cape Blanco to just south of Cape Mendocino.  Sound familiar?  The wind field (which will have been blowing strongest from about Mendocino south) is forecast to extend further north late in the forecast period.

 

Bottom line is relatively light off Oregon, with Moderate winds to 25kts for N. CA, with winds increasing come Tuesday and extending into Southern to Central Oregon by Tuesday.

 

4 day Forecast:

 

Today August 29

 

Oregon – Variable wind to 10 knots, except Cape Blanco south, winds 10-15 gusts to20 from the NW.  Seas, 3' NW swell at 10 seconds and wind waves to 2' (2-4' S. of Blanco).  They are also forecasting the S. swell from Cape Blanco south 2 to 3' at 15 seconds.

 

N. CA – NW winds 15-25 kts.  I've kinda stopped mentioning this, but the winds will probably tend to be diurnal, responding to the heating and cooling of the land.  This means you can expect strongest winds late afternoon and evening hours.  That said it pretty much can blow any bloody time.  The winds will likely be lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  This may not be the case from about Pt. Arena south where it could stay breezy closer to shore.  Seas, NW swell, 3-5' at 9 seconds with wind waves to 6'.   S swell 3-5' at 13 seconds.

 

Saturday August 30

 

OR – SW wind to 10 knots with west swell 5 feet at 10 seconds, wind waves to 2' but probably less.   You will likely see a bit more wind  form W or NW and waves Blanco south, but nothing extreme.

 

N. CA – NW wind 15-25 knots with gusts to 30.  Seas NW swell to 9 ' at 10 seconds with wind waves to 7'.  S swell 2-4' at 12 seconds.

 

Sunday August 31

 

OR  - Variable winds 0-15 kits. Seas NW swell about 5' with wind waves 2' or less.  Again, Blanco south will likely see more consistent wind nw 5-15 with gusts to 20.

 

N. CA – NW wind 15 – 30, higher gusts possible if not likely.  There will probably be some relief closer to shore but the pattern isn't as strong for this and it does look like from Point Arena south there won't be any relief close to shore.  Seas NW swell 6-9' at 10 seconds wind waves to 5-7',  S swell continues 2-4'.

 

Monday September 1

 

OR from Columbia river to Coos bay – NW wind 10-15 kts, W swell 5' with wind waves 2-3'

 

S. OR and N. CA – N to NW wind 15 -30.  Seas NW swell 7-10' with wind waves 4-7'.

 

Tuesday September 2

 

Central Oregon North – NW wind 10 -20, gusts to 25.  W swell 5' with wind waves to 3'

 

S. OR and N. CA – N to NW wind 15 to 30.  Seas NW swell, 7-10' with wind waves 4-7'.

 

Brad

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations and news August 28 Thursday

boat locations as i have recieved them till now,  karl

3:29 pm Mike posted:  Andante arrived in Berkeley about noon after meandering around the bay sight seeing. Mabruka arrived and is moored on the SF waterfront. Apropos is in here as well, thinking they went to the SF waterfront as well, after

a couple celebratory drinks I can¹t remember but they are in here. Raptor was just behind all of us and was headed to the Beneteau dealer for some repairs near Alameda?. Friday reported they they were refueling in Bodega to arrive under the GG Friday (no pun intended).

The Berkeley Yacht Club is fantastic, cheap drinks, free showers
available, great view of the entire bay and I will probably get in on the
beer can race tomorrow night (because I have racing blood in me as well as
cruising blood).

1:57 pm, Kaye posted:  Sonamara passing Shelter Cove, north of Fort Bragg, CA. Namaste, Impulse, and Abby Normal in general vicinity, I believe. At last contact, everyone was planning to go to Bodega Bay, arriving tomorrow afternoon.

All is quiet out here on the high seas.  Safe travels,

12:16 pm  Amy posted:  Millie J is safely docked in Santa Barbara Marina slip O15.  The trip from San Francisco was  uneventful...fair seas and very little wind for three days.  Got to say, I think waves and winds makes it a lot more exciting.  The only events were dodging cargo ships and turning Point Conception which had 30 knots winds and 3-4 foot wind waves.  The southern swells were not bad at all. We were traveling about 10 nautical miles away from the coast.

We will spend the weekend exploring the Channel Islands before ending our trip in Long Beach.

11:14 am Lee posted and fyi:  [from the Cal list]  This morning I went to Cabrillo beach and discovered and photographed breaking waves inside the Los Angeles light house making the entrance extremely dangerous. Also there were perfect surfing waves not only on the outer beach but inside on the calm side. As the Westerly picked up it created an offshore on the inner beach creating perfect tube shaped waves between 2 and 4 feet. The calm side beach has not had surf since the 60s-early 70s. Additionally, I got a couple pictures of the water crashing on LA light about 1/2 way to the top.

An exciting day!

6:25 am, Brad posted:

Abby Normal 40 42.86n, 124 30.17w

Sonamara 40 30n, 124 35w
Namaste 40 33n, 124 57w
Impulse 40 28n, 124 38w
These positions via VHF. No answers on ssb 4a, 8a, 12a, or 2128.
Boats checking in making for Bodega Bay. All is well. Cheers,

7:50 pm thursday Scott posted:  It's great and hard to hear at the same time the fantastic trips you are all having. Velvet Sky will leave Coos Bay on the 2nd after having made a trip to Idaho to visit with friends and family.We hope to catch up to you by San Diego. Take care

Coho Ho Ho Sailing Rally - Brads Weather brief August 28 Thursday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 28 2014

 

The GFS weather model looks very different today than it did yesterday beyond about day 3.   This happens pretty often actually.   The overall pattern is the same with high pressure retrograding to the west and then filling again to the East and an upper level trough setting up residence over the Pacific NW.   The difference is the strength and location of the Pacific high.  The current model run has it about 5mb weaker and further to the north come Tuesday.   So, there is some uncertainty in the longer range forecast.  Yesterday I said it was going to fill further south on the N. CA coast, where the current model run has the max winds filling a bit further north, and blowing reasonably hard in the usual locations between the capes down to SF starting Tuesday.   The news with the most impact is it does look as though the gradients will remain tighter than previously forecast from about Mendocino south to SF in the shorter term.  The current GFS model supports this and the National weather service is calling for low end small craft warnings in this area for wind and seas.  It does look as though the wind will be less close to shore at least in the stretch closer to Mendocino.  Looking further north, wind should be reasonably mellow North of Cape Blanco over the next 4 days

 

In other news, formerly Hurricane Marie is now a tropical storm and continues to weaken and shrink in size.  She will remain well offshore and will not be a factor for the Ho ho group other than the lingering S swell off the CA waters.

 

4 day forecast

 

Today August 28, 2014

 

OR – N to NW wind 5-15, strongest winds in the far south of the state.  Seas, wind waves 1-4' with a S swell 2-3' at 13 seconds

 

N. CA – N to NW wind 5-15 building to as high as 20 later in the day.  Seas 4-6' waves from the NW at 7 seconds.  S swell to 7' at 14 seconds

 

Friday August 29

 

OR – looks pretty light with N wind 5-10, maybe a bit more near the CA border.  Sea, up to 3' waves from NW at 9 seconds with a 2' swell from the S at 15 seconds

 

N. CA – N to NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  Less wind likely within 10 miles of coast.  Seas, NW swell to 4 to 5' with wind waves 3-6'.  S swell 4-5' at 15 seconds

 

Saturday August 30

 

OR – SW winds in the North half to 10 kts veering to the W late.  Light to NE winds in the in the Southern half to 10 kts with possible gust to 15 late.   Seas, 4' swell from the NW with wind waves to 1' or less.  There will probably be some lingering south swell but likely under 2'

 

N.  CA – NW winds 15-30, less closer to shore.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' with wind waves to 7'.  Remaining S swell to around 3 or 4' at 13 seconds

 

Sunday August 31

 

OR – W to NW wind 5-10 with gusts to 15.  Wind will build closer to the CA border perhaps to 20. NW swell 5' with wind waves to 2'. 

 

N. CA – NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30. Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.   NW swell 8-10' at 8 seconds with wind waves 4-7'.  S swell to 3'

 

Monday September 1

 

OR – N to NW wind 10-20 with the strongest wind in the south ½ .  Seas, NW swell 5-6' with wind waves 2 to 4'

 

N. CA – NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.  NW swell 8-10' at 8 seconds with wind waves 4-7'.  S swell to 3'

 

So, based on reports from the sailors who have already made SF, conditions can and do vary.  I know many of the boats found that they had winds and seas exceeding the forecast at times and the reverse was true with lighter winds as well.     The National weather service forecast does call for less wind closer to shore.  However, the models show the gradients closer to shore this time around and I would not be surprised if that 10 mile zone does have at least moderate winds.  Another thing to keep in mind is fog.  There will likely be fog at times for the whole forecast area.

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Brads Weather Brief August 27 Wednesday- Finally!

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 27 2014

Surfs up in California!  It made NPR this morning.  I was listening on the way in to the office on how surfers and boogey boarders are flocking to the California Beaches to take advantage of the large swell.  Well isn't that swell (sorry I couldn't resist).  The S to SW swell should continue with any significance through Friday, but should really back off after that.

The overall pattern continues with a transition in store for the PNW as we go to more zonal flow with an upper level trough and heights fall.  The weather will definitely cool off up here in Washington and precipitation comes into the forecast starting Friday through into early next week for Washington.

The pacific high pressure is forecast to be fairly dynamic as it weakens and retrogrades from its current Longitude of about 140 degrees, with another high building out at about 160 degrees longitude.   The GFS model then has the new high pressure building and moving east to a pressure of 1030 mb centered at about 42N 148 West by early Tuesday. 

Inland of California and Nevada will still be heating, continuing the inland thermal low, but, initially, there will not be the nearby high pressure to increase the pressure gradients (remember more pressure change/gradient over short distance means higher winds).  Thus the wind speeds along the Oregon and California coasts should be less over the next couple of days.   Now bring in the Pacific NW weather keeping things cooler in WA and Oregon all the way to the CA border.  As the high pressure builds and pushes back to the east the pressure gradients will increase, BUT the location of the strongest gradients look like they will be further south.   Right now it appears there will be stronger NW winds from about Cape Mendocino or perhaps Point Reyes South at least to Point Conception, really starting to crank up on Sunday evening.   North of Cape Mendocino to Blanco it does appear that the gradients are not going to back off as much as I previously forecast for the Weds – Sat period  and there should be some decent sailing in the Southern Oregon to SF area from now through this weekend.  So maybe it won't be a motorboat ride after all. 

Those of you in Newport – if you wish to avoid strong winds near SF, you best get going.  It looks like it will start cranking up come Sunday afternoon in the waters south of Mendocino for the foreseeable future.

Here is my 4 day forecast:

Today August 27, 2014

OR – N winds 10-20 with gusts to 25.  Seas are likely to be the most challenging around Cape Blanco where they will be interacting with the south swell.  Seas, NW swell at 3', 8 seconds and N to NW wind waves 2-5'.  S -SW swell to 3' at 15 seconds.  Keep in mind you can always expect fog this time of year in this area of the world, usually worst in the mornings

N. CA – N to NW winds 5-15 with possible periods or gusts to 20.   Seas, Combined wind wave and swell from the NW to 4' at 8 seconds.   S swell 5-6 feet at 15 seconds.  Ditto on the fog thing I mentioned for OR.

This is probably a good time to mention Four Fathom bank also known as the "Potato Patch".    It is well marked on your charts and resides to WNW of the entrance of SF bay and is just north of the main channel.   Much of the time conditions are fine in this area, but when conditions are right (larger waves with opposing wind and or current) you will get breaking waves.  It's possible we will have those conditions over the next 4 days.   It's probably best to chart a course either side of the bank.  For those that have internet here is a link to a You-tube video showing breaking waves at this bank:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o10vUZVa0_M

Thursday August 28

OR – N wind 10-20 with higher gust possible.  Seas, combined wind waves and swell to 5 or 6' at 8 seconds.  South swell nearer the border with CA, 3' at 15 seconds.

N. CA – N to NW wind 5-20 with the stronger breeze building in the afternoon or evening hours.  NW waves to 5' at 7 seconds.  S swell to 5-7' at 13 seconds

Friday August 29

OR – N to NW wind 5-15, getting lighter in the late evening.  Seas NW waves 3-4' at 9 seconds.  Near CA border you can expect S swell to 2' at 12 seconds

N. CA – N to NW wind 10-20 possibly building to 25 closer to SF.  Seas, NW swell 3-5' at 9 seconds with wind waves to 2-6'.  S. swell 3-5' at 11 seconds .

Saturday August 30

OR – W to NW winds 0-10 knots, Seas, waves to 2-3'.   Probably foggy or misty at times.

N. CA – how about NNW wind 10-25 with NNW waves to 8'.  More wind toward SF.  There will likely be some left over S swell to 3' as well.

Sunday August 31 (is it really already the end of August?  Arrgh)

OR – wind W to NW or even N 5-15 knots.  The further south you go the more wind you will get and the further N it will be.  Seas, NW swell to 5 feet with wind waves 2-4'

N. CA – NW wind 10-30, with the wind building in the afternoon and evening hours.  The strongest winds will be closer to SF.  Seas, NW swell 6-8 feet at 8 seconds with wind waves 3-7 feet.  The SW swell still probably there to 3' at a period of 10 seconds or so.  Bumpy for sure.

Brad

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - boat locations and news August 27 Wednesday

[boat location email was delayed because my internet was down, again.  karl]

2:42 pm Kaye posted:  Here's the update to the update. The Sonamara, Namaste, and Impulse bunch plan to book it straight to Bodega Bay with Impulse stopping in Crescent City for fuel. Thanks Galatea for the bad fuel info! Message was radioed to Impulse.   Calm seas and the fog has lifted.  Take care all,  Kaye s/v Sonamara

2:38 pm, Kevin on m/v Andante posted:  Hey all, just back into internet range. Lost it around Mendocino. We left Brookings and the weather looked good and we decided to keep on going along with Rapture who we picked up at Brookings. We just passed Fort Bragg and computer says we should arrive under the bridge late morning.  Status - AIS antenna dead, near miss with a fishing boat again right of Cape Mendocino (2nd time this trip we've had to take evasive action in the night to avoid a collision). Thankfully as the AIS was dying, it decided one last breath during this maneuvering cluster which helped us sort out our actions about 200 times better than just radar. Near miss with a whale this morning thanks to Boo's driving skills. 

We are headed to Berkely Marina.   Anyone have a SWR antenna tester???

10:18 Bradley posted:  Abby Normal left Brookings this morning bound for Crescent City. From there we intend to travel to Eureka, staging for a daylight rounding of Cape Mendocino Friday. The effluent system is working again. I will plan on trying the net tomorrow morning at 6am on 4A, 8A and 12A again. Have had no takers for a couple of days, but then we were tied up at a dock last night texts seem to work fine. If you have text capability just text me your positions and I'll include that.   We are currently at 41 55.792n, 124 7.042w. Wind 2.8k from 180m. Sea is a bathtub in 1/4 mi viz fog.

Cheers,

10:06 am, Kaye posted:  Good morning fellow Hoho'ers,  Sonamara just passed Cape Sebastian, OR. Would guess Namaste to be about 2 hrs ahead. They had Impulse in sight. Namaste plans to head into Crescent City, CA, tonight. Unclear if Impulse plans to do this also.   Quite a bumpy ride yesterday and throughout night. Today better. Headwind of 8kts with 3 ft swells from NW. Getting foggy again.  Cheers,  Kaye

12:11 pm today Steve posted:  Galatea here in SF.   If anyone is headed to Crescent City use caution at the fuel dock there. We filled our Port tank from the diesel low flow fuel pump there and found a significant amount of water in our purchase.  I was changing the oil and putting on new filters after our trip down and decided to polish the Port tank which I had not used since we filled near empty in Crescent City. Still polishing and have pulled almost 1/2 gallon of water in 70 gallons of fuel. The tanks were clean prior to departing so I know it was from the docks there.  If you can pass on fueling here I would recommend that or at the least pre filter as you fill if you have the option.  Maybe pump a  quart in a glass container first and see what your getting.  Just FYI.  Good luck out there.

9:38 am, posted today:  Impulse is 42.11/124.38.  We have had vhf contact with Namaste and Sonomara this morning who are ahead of us and all is well.  We all were planning to beat it to SF but there is rumor of not so good weather so we are anxiously waiting for Brad's weather report.

10:38 am today Millie J posted:  1026 hrs Wednesday August 27th...currently at N35 38.6 W 121 23.8 (about 10 miles west of Pt. Piedras Blancas) motoring at a heading of 96m at 6-6.5 knots.  The wind is 0-10 knots from N to NNW.   The Southerly swell began to build overnight and is about 6-8' at about 12 second period...just big rollers from the south.  Temp is 72 (was nice to NOT do watch in foulies last night!) and  Pressure is 30.05 in and rising - consistent with the local forecast for warmer, dry air...no fog last night nor this AM...we were able to sail a bit yesterday and hope to do so today as the wind becomes a bit more consistent...unfortunately we are going to likely need a fuel stop before making our final stop in long beach CA...it seems our options are Morro Bay, Santa Barbara or Ventura / Oxnard.  I know from experience that Ventura and Oxnard are pretty exposed to southerly swells, and Morro Bay sounds like a tricky bar crossing in the best of times...does anyone have experience or knowledge re: Santa Barbara?  we are going to call as we get a bit closer in and get cell coverage - just wondering if anyone has any additional insight?  looks like we would likely enter early tomorrow AM.  boat and crew are all happy healthy and secure. fishing line is out :)

12:20 am last night Jim posted:  Apropos Update - 35 nm from Pt Reyes, motor sailing in 10kt northerly, small NW swell.

yesterday 9:44 pm Morris posted:  Impulsive left San Fran this morning and motored to the Breakwater Cove Marina at Monterey.  We had planned to head out tomorrow but the southerly swells from the hurricane will make anchoring difficult so we are staying a day or two to let the swells die down.

Morris and Debbie

yesterday, Millie J posted:  as of Tuesday August 26th 1800 hrs...N 36 59.4 W 122 27..0 (slightly NW of Monterey Bay)...Sailing with drifter and pole at 134 M at 4.4 knots in 8-12 knots of wind from NW.  Pressure is 29.95 in Hg and steady.  Temp is 75 degrees with beautiful sunny weather.  We motored from SF till about 1600 when then winds finally clocked and held steady to about 10knots.  We believe we were tapped by a small whale earlier in the day while motoring...felt / heard a thump like hitting a log in the puget sound...after the bump, Amy saw a tail about 4-6' across heading aft and downward under the rudder...no issues from whatever it was....other than that nothing...all is well hope you are all well too...

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 Weather August 26 Tuesday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 10:30 pdt August 26 2014

 

My apologies for the late forecast today!   I'd much rather Nerd out on weather, but I've had to make a living and have spent the morning on the phone.

 

Hurricane Marie has become a shadow of her former self and is now a Category 2 storm with max winds of 85 kts.   She is still a large storm, as hurricanes go, with tropical storm force winds extending well out from the hurricanes center.  The forecast is for Marie to continue weakening and I suspect she will be downgraded to a tropical storm tomorrow.  As she heads NW she will transition to a "Post Tropical Cyclone" the day after tomorrow, but will likely still have gale force winds through the next 4 days.  Again, the biggest issue for those of you travelling off the coast will be S to SW swell.  The peak swell is forecast to occur Wednesday and then will take 3 or 4 more days to wind down.   The National Weather Service says the largest waves will be occurring from about Pt. Reyes south.   In deep water the waves shouldn't be much of a concern other than being a tad uncomfortable.  The largest issues is when travelling over shoals, across bars or when the wind and waves oppose the waves.  Keep this in mind.

 

The only real change to the forecast is, maybe, perhaps I backed off too much on the N wind speeds in my last forecast.  The good news is it may not shut off entirely, but be quite manageable winds starting Wednesday for most of the forecast area.   The models show the pacific high weakening over the next few days before re-establishing staring for the weekend.  Later this week a week upper level low will slide into the PNW bringing W to SW winds by Saturday to the WA and N. OR coast.  We could get some precipitation here in Washington during that time, which, by the way is not the best for painting a beach house!

 

If you are north of the Columbia River, let me know.  I plan to stop forecasting for that area.   As a matter of fact I plan to stop forecasting for all of you once you have all reached SF or south.  I will be available should you wish for me to take a peek at expected conditions, but won't do a dailiy forecast once the last boat arrives in SF, which should be, I believe in the next few days.

 

Forecast:

I believe I'm done with Washington unless I hear otherwise from one of you.   But FYI the forecasted winds for the WA coast is for NW winds 15 kts or less through Friday and W to SW winds to 10 knots on Saturday.  Light swell to 6' during this time

 

For Oregon and N. CA the forecast isn't all that dynamic over the next few days so I'm going to lump each zone into one forecast for the four days.

 

Oregon waters – N winds to 25 with higher gusts today.  N winds 5-20 Wednesday through Friday.  W winds in the Northern portion on Saturday to 10 kts with NW winds in the southern half to 10 kts for Saturday.  For the seas, the largest wind waves and swells will be today with combined seas to 7' from the N to NW at 8 seconds.  In the southern half combine those seas with a 3' S swell at 15 seconds.  The NW seas will diminish over the next 4 days down to about 4'.  The S. swell is forecast to continue for the next 4 days for the waters nearer the border

 

N. CA Waters – For most of the area today the forecast is for SW winds 0-10 kts.  The exception is near the border where it should still be blowing from the NE to 15 kts.  For Weds – Sat winds are expected for the most part to blow from the NW and 15kts or less.  There will probably be exceptions where the wind could kick up into the low 20's for fairly brief periods.   Seas, the NW swell should be running at 4 – 6' today but will diminish to 4' or less Weds – Saturday.  The South swell is forecast to peak to as high as 8' with the wave height increasing the further South you are in these waters.  The wave period for these waves will be 13 to 16 seconds.   The south swell should slowly diminish in height to be 3-4' by Saturday.

 

Brad

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations August 26 tuesday

Boat information as of 9:30am tuesday aug 26

9:00 am Mikey posted:  Fleet update: Andante underway out of Brookings at 8:30 AM. Rapture will be leaving soon after. Abby Normal is taking a lay day in Brookings to replace a macerator issue and find accommodations for a departing crew member. we got a relay from the US Coast Guard Brookings from Mabruka last night stating they were 17 miles offshore under double reef main sail only and comfortable continuing. Communications with Friday in Port Orford suggest they will be leaving shortly with a plan to stay within 5 miles of shore. A possible target of Brookings this evening.

Cheers Mikey

8:08 am Brad posted:  We (Abby Normal) were leaving Brookings, OR this morning, but while doing pre-daparture checks I noticed a foul odor… result is that I have to replace our macerator pump. A nasty job that I have done before. I have a spare. We will plan on leaving tomorrow morning (8/27). Cheers, and watch what you put down that toilet!

8:13 AM Kaye posted:  Good morning Hoho cohorts,Sonamara, Namaste, and Impulse are departing en masse now from Newport at 0800. We will be doing 8am net amongst us on 4A and net with Brad at 6pm 4A. Dense fog.

6:11 am Brad posted:  re: 6 am net, Nothing heard…  Andante and Abby Normal are planning on leaving Brookings for points south @ 7am this morning.

Mabrouka update from Andante

Coast Guard relayed from Mabrouka that they are 17 miles out from Chetco/Brookings with double reefed main and feel safe, so they are staying out. 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Brads Weather brief August 25 monday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 0915 pdt August 25, 2014

 

Well, we are down to just one tropical depression and one hurricane off the coast of Mexico.  That one hurricane is a doozy though.  Hurricane Marie currently located for or 4 or 5 hundred miles SW of Cabo had reached Category 5 status yesterday and is now down to a measly Category 4 hurricane, blowing at 125 kts.  Marie is forecast to move continually to the NW and will move over much cooler waters in the next couple of days which will eventually spell her demise.  The effects for the Coho ho ho fleet WILL NOT be the wind and rain which is usually associated with these storms, as Marie should stay well offshore and SW of the fleet.  No, it'll be the ocean swell that you will likely experience.   Those waves have yet to reach the N. California water.  The Southerly swell that is happening now is from two previous systems, Lowell and Karina.  Marie's presence is forecast to start being felt on Tuesday and is projected to build into the 4' to 8' range.  The good news is the wave period is supposed to be 15-17 seconds or so.  Out in open water this won't be a big deal, but closer to shore, where the waves start to feel bottom, they will stack up and create larger than normal breaking waves on the shore.  So be aware of this when sailing near shoals or when the wind and or current is opposite the waves.

 

Starting tomorrow it looks like a window of less wind and short seas will be opening up over the next 4 days at least.  The downside is it may end up being more of a motorboat ride to SF especially the nearer you get to shore.  As the high pressure weakens and retrogrades more to the West, the pressure gradients will relax and the inland thermal low will push offshore a bit.   In the Pacific NW things will go to an upper level trough pattern come the Thursday Friday time frame.  But that won't affect you guys because all of you are going to be well south of us poor suckers up here.  For me though it's a different matter.  I'm supposed to paint the family beach house over Labor Day weekend, and onshore marine drizzle could really put a monkey wrench in those plans!

 

Enough about me, here is the 4 day forecast:

 

Today August 25, 2014

 

WA coast – N winds 5-20 with the stronger winds happening in the evening.  Seas, west swell 5-6' at 7 seconds.  Wind waves around 2' and possibly less.

 

Oregon Coast – N winds 5-25 with higher gusts possible near Cape Blanco.  Seas, Combined wind waves and NW swell to 6 maybe 7 feet at 7 seconds.  There might be some S to SW swell to 1 or 2' in the S OR waters.

 

N. CA Coast – N winds 5 – 25 with the majority of the stronger winds occurring nearer the Oregon Border and further offshore (perhaps 20 miles or more).  It will be significantly lighter in the range closer to shore all along the coast.  Seas, N to NW Swell as high as 8' at 9 seconds along with a south swell to 3' at 15 seconds.

 

Tuesday August 26

 

WA – N winds 5-15, maybe a bit diurnal and kicking up to 20 in some places in the afternoon and evening.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' from the NW with wind waves to 2'.

 

OR – The max wind field should have shifted north now so winds all up and down the Oregon coast could gust up to 25 knots.  The range should be 10-25 from the N.  Seas, NW swell to 5' at 8 seconds and wind waves to 5'.  Possible south swell too in the southern OR waters to 2' maybe 3'.

 

N. CA – It's going to be pretty darn light, maybe even with some south winds.   Seas, mixed NW swell 4 – 6' at 9 seconds and S swell 2-4' initially at 12 seconds, but getting longer during the day to about 17 seconds.

 

Wednesday August 27

WA – N to NW winds 5-15.  Seas, NW swell to 4-5' with wind waves to 2'

 

OR – NW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20.  Seas, NW swell to 5' at 9 seconds, wind waves to 3'.  Southern Oregon probably experiencing S swell to 3' at 16 seconds

 

CA – Mostly north winds to 10 kts, maybe with some higher gusts.  Combined NW seas to 5' with S swell 4 to 8' at 17 seconds.  The largest South swell is projected to be from Point Arena South. 

 

Thursday August 28

 

WA – Light Northerlies to 10 knots.  Seas W swell, 4' at 9 seconds.  Wind waves 1' or less.

 

OR – N winds 5-15 kts.  Seas W swell, 4' at 9 seconds, wind waves 2' or less.

 

CA – NW winds to 10 knots.  Seas NW swell 2 – 4' at 8 seconds and S swell 3' to 7' at 15 to 17 seconds.  The south swell will be toward the higher end of the range the further south you get.

 

Friday August 29

 

WA – West winds to 10 knots.  Seas, west swell at 4' with wind waves 1' or less

 

OR – N to NW winds 0-10 kits, maybe to 15 near Cape Blanco.  Seas, W swell 4' and wind waves 2' maybe 3' if windier.

 

CA – Gradients may start to tighten so let's go with NW winds 5-15.  Seas, NW swell 2-4 feet and south swell 3-6' with a long wave period.

 

Brad

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations August 25 Monday

boat reports as of 7:32 pm monday august 25

6:36 pm Mike Beste posted:  Update from Andante ... us and Abby normal ducking into Brookings for the night, out tomorrow expectedly at 7 am. Sea State picked up just passed Cape Blanco. 10 to 12's at short intervals with Winchop up to 30 kn ...Friday ducked into Port Orford. Apropos is 10 miles out heading past Medecino in the night. They reported A wind change, now on the nose after Crescent city. Unclear if Mabruka will duck in with us in Brookings or will continue on.

6:19 pm Kaye posted:  Good evening Coho'ers,  Sonamara, Namaste, and Impulse all plan to depart tomorrow morning at 0700.  I will confirm departure at that time.

12:53 pm brad gibson posted:  An update…  Winds went from low 20's to mid 30's steady and gusts to 40 with corresponding increase in sea state. Had to triple reef main and jib in a span of about 2 minutes. Now steady winds from  the north about 32. Sea about 10 from NW (got to 20 for a brief while). Much better ride now. Still doing hull speed. Sporting ;-0

10:32am brad gibson posted:  Abby normal is 10 miles out nearing cape blanco. We're seeing 10-12' seas, wind low to mid 20s, one gust to 30 ;-) all is well. Andante says we're now s/v Abby Normal..

9:59am Jim Shutt posted:  Apropos just left Crescent City headed for San Francisco.  Down to a crew of three as Mike had to get back to Seattle. 

6:33 am brad posted:  No replies on 6am net. We're ready to go and currently awaiting a bar check from the cg. We will know in a few minutes whether we leave or stay in Bandon...

6:42 am Steve and Teri Mason posted:  Galatea arrived Saturday into SF at slack tide under the Bridge after a two day two night run from Crescent City. Sailed most the way but motored through the final night to catch the tide.

Got to our slip in Alameda at Village Marina at 5pm and straight to showers and dinner. Spent yesterday clearing the salt way and sleeping.   This is our stopping point for now with no plans to venture further South till next year. Best of luck to those continuing on. It has been great to follow everyone's progress. Thanks to Doug and Eva for the support.  Cheers

7:53am Mike posted: Fleet update Andante and Abby Normal left Bandon approximately 7:10 AM this morning. Mabrouka elected to stay in port. Friday is getting some well needed rest.  see you in San Francisco

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 August 24 Sunday - a few more locations

7:12 pm Chris and Cindy posted:  

Check in for Impulse on Aug 24, 2014 at 1400.

We spent the night making passage from Ilwaco, across the bar, and down the coast to Newport, OR.

Passage across the bar went as smoothly as we could have hoped.  A ebb tide pushing us out, only 2-4 foot swell, no wind waves.

We made our way South through the day with full sails up in 15 knot winds pushing a cool 8 knots speed over ground at times. Winds picked up as the evening set in, as did the waves and swell.  I estimate we had 7' foot swells, and gusts above 30 knots.  As we reduced sail power, we reduced speed as well, which worked out well as we wanted to slide into Newport during daylight hours.

We arrived in Newport around 0830 on motor since the wind died down when the sun began to rise.  Met up with Sonamara and Namaste at J-dock in the South Beach Marina.  Crew is again happy and healthy.

Impulse update 1730 on Aug 22, 2014. (Written for my Facebook friends more than Coho, but whatever)

We have done our daily weather huddle and decided to delay our departure from Newport for 1 day.  Instead of leaving Monday morning we will leave Tuesday morning.  

There are a couple pressure systems around Southern and central Mexico that have caused inland California to have a low-pressure system that conflicts with the offshore high-pressure system that has been hanging around.  This causes a squash zone (pressure gradients changing quickly in a small geography), confused seas (swells from different directions with different periods), and swells that a few feet larger than we are comfortable with (10-12 feet).

We want to time our crossing around capes Blanco and Mendocino carefully, and although there is never a prefect time to round these, we want to avoid these types of systems.  This is exactly why we gave ourselves 11 days to do a 7 day trip.  We can hole-up and time it with the weather.  So tomorrow will be R&R as well as completing a couple boat projects.

Photo is of what being 'holed-up' looks like.

And the story as told by Cindy (crew-mate).

Dave, Doug and I arrived in Portland on the 19th and accomplished many last minute projects and provisioning.  It is amazing what you can fit into small spaces.  The day ended with a walk to the Island Cafe on Hayden Island where our boat was docked.  Chris' friends had a nice send off for us all.  After overnight stops in the small towns of Cathlamet and Ilwaco down the Columbia River we crossed the infamous Columbia River Bar at slack high tide without incident.  Now I'm thinking this is going to be a cake walk.  We raised ours sails, layered up, turned off the engine and began a 20 hour down wind sail (no motoring) to Newport, OR.  Both sails were working hard in 20 knots of wind. As it increased after dark, we sailed with half of the jib only. And dark it was!!!!  Of course there was no moon and we were literally sailing blind except for big. dark mounds of stuff attacking us from all sides.  The seas were 6' to 8' high with gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Captain Doug, Dave and Chris did a remarkable job basically staying up all night taking turns at the helm and watches.  I personally never felt afraid nor did any of us get seasick. In the meanitme, our head (potty) backed up and if that happens on a twisting, turning boat, it is not pretty.  We had to rig a pump out the head window and took turns goinig below pumping it out - we certainly left our mark all the way down the Oregon coastline.  We are now in Newport, analysing the weather, which is never quite what is it suppose to be.   It was probably the wildest Saturday night we've had in a long time and all without alcohol.  

Thanks,

Chris

Photo is of what being 'holed-up' looks like. 

6:42 pm Brad posted:  Kevin didn't do a net tonight. Sonamara is in Newport along with Namaste.  Abby Normal, Andante, Mabrouka, and Friday are here in Brandon. Abby and Andante plan to leave at the 7am slack if the bar is open. Others are unsure and may wait. If the bar doesn't open, we might wait until Tuesday.   (you could read that last sentence to mean there are thirsty people sitting in front of a tavern, waiting :-) ed)

6:09 pm Scott posted:  Velvet Sky listened in and tried to call out on SSB 4A with no luck. We are staying in Coos Bay until at least Sept 2nd. We are making a trip to see family before we resume our trip south. 

3:03 pm Kay posted:  Sonamara in Newport, OR, until Wed or Thurs.

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Brads Weather brief August 24 Sunday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather report combined 0900 pdt August 24, 2014

 

Good morning Fleet.  I have to keep it short this morning as I failed to get up early enough and the family has plans for today.  I can tell you its beautiful weather this morning here in Seattle.  In other news a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck N. California this morning near Sonoma.  It was a shallow quake, therefore fairly violent.  Reports are still coming in of course, but it looks like no deaths, though the wine industry may have taken a bit of hit.

 

The weather forecast has remained consistent.   The high pressure offshore is forecast to weaken while the thermal low move a bit west starting late Monday.  The Northerly winds will remain strong today and Monday from just North of Blanco extending down to near Mendocino.  There will be a shift late Monday as the winds will get lighter South of Blanco and the strongest wind field shifts a bit North before it too moderates come Thursday.  The wind and seas will be worst around Cape Blanco initially and then Cape Blanco and extending North Tuesday into Wednesday.   Wind off the Washington coast will be mellow during the 4 day forecast period blowing 0 -15.

 

Forecast:

 

WA coast – Light winds to 15 from the N.  Seas 3-5 feet from the W to NW.  wind waves 2' or less.  This forecast holds Today through Thursday.

 

Oregon and Northern California Coast

 

Today

 

Columbia River to Newport – N wind 5-15 gusts to 20, Seas, combined wind waves and swell to 6' at 7 seconds from the NW.

 

Newport to Cape Mendocino – N wind 10 – 30 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, combined seas from the N at 11' at 8 seconds mixed with a 2-4' swell from the S at 15 seconds.  Remember that when wave height is forecast this is an average number.  There are always larger waves at times.  And you may have noticed that they come in sets.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW wind 5 – 25 with gusts to 30.  More wind in the North portion and more than 10 miles offshore.  Remember there is always the possibility for fog pretty much anywhere on the coast.  Seas 6-8' from the N with a shorter period combined with 4' swell from the S with a long period.

 

Monday August 25

 

Columbia River to Newport – N wind 10 – 25 with higher gusts possible.  Strong winds will be closer to Newport.    Seas Combined seas to 7 ' at 7 seconds from the NW.

 

Newport to Mendocino – N wind 10 – 30 with gusts to 35 possible.  Seas, combine seas from the N to 10' at 8 seconds mixed with 2-4' swell from the S at 15 seconds.

 

Mendocino to SF – Starting to mellow out, N to NW winds 5-20.  More wind in North half more than 10 miles offshore.  In other areas it may get variable.   Seas 6-8' short period seas from the N. and 5' long period swell from the South.

 

Tuesday August 26

 

Entire Oregon Coast – N winds 10-25.  Strongest winds at Cape Blanco and starting to extend North.  Seas, Combined waves from the N 5-7'.   South and SW Swell to 2' at 15 seconds.

 

Northern California – N winds 0 -15.  It is possible there will be variable directions but should be light.  Seas Left over slop from the North 7' at 8 seconds.  South to SW swell 4' at 15 seconds.

 

Wednesday August 27

 

Oregon Coast – N wind 5-20 with strongest winds Cape Blanco to Newport.  Winds will subside during the day.  Seas, wind waves from the N. to 5', S to SW swell 2' at 15 seconds.

 

Northern CA – Mostly N winds forecast not to exceed 15 knots.  I imagine there will be a whole lot of nothing at times.  The N wind waves should be about 5' with an impressive 5' Swell at 16 seconds forecast.

 

Thursday August 28

 

For entire Oregon and N. CA coast winds are forecast to not exceed 15 knots, mostly from the N., but I expect variability, especially south of Mendocino where there could be light W and SW winds.  Seas should be mellowed out by now with the exception of the pesky south Swell which should still be running at 3-5' in the N. CA waters.

 

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Boat locations and more August 24, Sunday

this is what i have for today

on Sunday aug 24, Morris Adams on s/v Impulsive posted:  We've decided to stay another night and will leave San Francisco early Tuesday morning.  We sent our crew home today so it's just Deb and I the rest of the way to San Diego.

Amy Arroyo on s/v Millie J posted:  We are in SFM slip 241 until Monday. Come an visit anytime

s/v Velvet Sky posted:  Millie J,  We have a recommendation from a couple that has been there before. Fortman marina on Alameda. Safe nice and not so expensive. Let us know if you check it out.

Doug Lombard posted:  Berkeley Marina is virtually due east some old pilings to watch out for it but if you take a straight shot from the San Francisco bridge center I believe it's 76° but doublecheck on your chart very wonderful nice place to hang out you do have to take a bus to get groceries

Mike Beste posted:  Only 50 cents a foot, (at berkeley marina?? ed.) very affordable. Last year a bunch of us rolled in there. Showers available but bring quarters. Marina is run by parks department and won't have any. Berkeley yacht club is right there, you should be  able to sign in as a guest and take advantage of the cheap drinks and food service ...great view as well.  Train station very close @ maybe  a half mile ... 25 hours to union station seattle.

Roy Numan posted:  Kevin has had recommendations for Berkely. 50 cents/ft. Fuel $4.80/gal. 

5:43 pm saturday Morris Adams posted:  Hi all. Doug asked me to let you know that San Francisco Municipal marina is where we are staying. Millie J is also staying there. They have been very accommodating and it's within walking distance to Fishermans Wharf.

karl

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Weather Brief August 23 Saturday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 0930 August 23

 

This forecast is consistent with yesterday.  There are some changes in store for the latter part of the 4 day forecast.   Currently the pacific high pressure should provide Northerly breeze all along the coast, strongest where it interacts most with the thermal low generated from land heating in inland California.   The GFS model has been consistent in showing a change come the Tuesday Wednesday time frame.  The pacific high is forecast to weaken while the thermal low extends over and into the waters off of Northern California.  Initially this will move the strongest wind Northward eventually to Cape Blanco all the way to the Columbia River by late Tuesday.  If what the GFS model is currently showing in the long term holds true the winds along the entire coast will go quite light as a ridge extends diagonally from the pacific to over the Pacific NW and a weak thermal trough sits off the California waters centered just off San Francisco.  The end result will be not a lot of gradient and it is possible if not likely that there will be light Southerly winds perhaps from Mendocino to SF.

 

Currently there are two Hurricanes and a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific waters off Mexico.  This will generate ocean swell coming from the South into our forecast area.  This swell could reach as high as 5'.

 

I think the fleet is all south of The Strait of Juan de Fuca, so I'm going to discontinue forecasting there.   However over the next four days the forecast is pretty much the same with light winds in the morning possible building westerly winds in the afternoon and evening peaking at 25 max.

 

Here is the four day forecast

 

Today August 23, 2014

 

WA and N. Or Coast to about Lincoln City – N. Wind 5 -15 building in the evening to as high as 25 kts.  Seas, W. swell 5' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 3'. 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Windiest between the capes where it will blow to 30 knots sustained  from the North with higher gusts.  Between the capes the winds will be lighter to 20 kts 10 miles or closer to shore.   North of Cape Blanco winds will be in the 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.  Seas will be a mixed bag with the largest most confused waves between the capes where the forecast is for combined wind waves and swell from the North to 11' at 8 seconds with South 3' swell with a 15 second period thrown in.  North of Cape Blanco the waves should be more in the 5'-7' range.  The south swell should extend into this area.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with the strongest winds in the northern portion of this area.  Closer to shore the winds will be lighter and possibly even calm winds.  Fog is more likely closer to shore.  Seas NW swell 6-8' at 8 seconds with a S. Swell 3' at 15 seconds.

 

Sunday August 23, 2014

 

WA and N. OR – N to NW wind 5-20 with gust to 25 possible.  W swell to 6' with wind waves to 4'.

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Pretty much a repeat of yesterday with the exception that it looks as though the winds will start to moderate a bit starting in the evening down to 25 knot max winds or less.  Seas will be the same

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with gusts to 30 and even higher at times.   As I've mentioned before it can kick up for no apparent reason in these waters often for a short duration.  Strongest winds will be in the North portion.  Southern portion and closer to shore should be lighter all the way down to 0 kts at times.  Foggy in some areas.  Seas NW Swell 5-10 ' (larger NW swell closer to Mendocino) at 9 seconds with a S swell 3' at 15 seconds.

 

Monday August 24

 

WA to N OR – N to NW wind 5-15 with gusts 20 .  W swell to 5' with wind waves to 3'

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – N to NW winds 10-25 knots.  Strongest winds centered around Cape Blanco.  Seas, as I'm sure you have found out by now higher gusts are possible if not likely.  The Seas are forecast to be a fun compilation of combined NW wind waves and swell to 10' with an 8 second period. mixed with a S. swell and SW swell both 2-3 feet at 15 seconds.

 

Cape Mendocino to SF – It will probably start out fairly windy in the North Portion to 25 kts, but will likely mellow out during the day with winds 15 kts or lower as the thermal low starts to push offshore and the Pacific high weakens.  The strongest winds during the day will be in the Northern zone near the Cape.  Winds nearer to SF could very well be light from inconsistent directions.   The forecast does call for fog in the zone 10 miles or closer to shore.  Seas combined swell 5-10' from NW at 8 seconds, starting to diminish.  Mix in a S and SW swell 3 to 4' with a period of 15 seconds.

 

Tuesday August 25

 

WA to N. OR – N to NW winds 5-20.  West swell 4' with wind waves to as high as 4' as well.

 

Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Models show it mellowing out starting at Cape Mendocino and Moving N.  The strongest winds should be North of Cape Blanco for a change.  N to NW winds 5-25 kts.  With the strongest winds Cape Blanco North.  Overall the winds should be decreasing on the whole by the end of the day.  Seas will be the usual combined NW wind wave and swell to 8' with a southerly swell thrown in with a longer wave period of about 15 seconds.

 

Mendocino to SF – wind 0 – 15 kts mostly from a Northerly direction though it's possible you will see southerly closer to shore and later in the day.  Seas NW swell 4-6' at 9 seconds combined with S and SW swell to 4'.  Wind waves 3' or less.

 

Wednesday August 26

 

WA to No OR – N to NW winds 5-15.  West swell to 5' with wind waves 3' or less

 

Cape Blanco to Lincoln city – (note I changed the zone here) N to NW winds 10 – 25 with higher gusts possible.  Seas, Combined wind waves and swell 6-7 feet combined with a S Swell 3 to 4 feet at 15 seconds.  The wind and waves should be diminishing toward the end of the day.

 

Cape Blanco to SF – Variable direction to NW winds 0 – 15 knots with perhaps winds to 20 knots nearer cape Blanco.  From Mendocino South the wind direction is you guess, it could easily have a southerly component.  The seas will be chilling out with the largest seas in the Northern Portion.  We are looking at a NW swell 3-6' at 8 seconds and a South Swell to 4' at 15 seconds.  Oh I almost forgot, patchy fog, especially closer to shore.

 

Enjoy!

 

Brad