Thursday, August 28, 2014

Coho Ho Ho Sailing Rally - Brads Weather brief August 28 Thursday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 28 2014


The GFS weather model looks very different today than it did yesterday beyond about day 3.   This happens pretty often actually.   The overall pattern is the same with high pressure retrograding to the west and then filling again to the East and an upper level trough setting up residence over the Pacific NW.   The difference is the strength and location of the Pacific high.  The current model run has it about 5mb weaker and further to the north come Tuesday.   So, there is some uncertainty in the longer range forecast.  Yesterday I said it was going to fill further south on the N. CA coast, where the current model run has the max winds filling a bit further north, and blowing reasonably hard in the usual locations between the capes down to SF starting Tuesday.   The news with the most impact is it does look as though the gradients will remain tighter than previously forecast from about Mendocino south to SF in the shorter term.  The current GFS model supports this and the National weather service is calling for low end small craft warnings in this area for wind and seas.  It does look as though the wind will be less close to shore at least in the stretch closer to Mendocino.  Looking further north, wind should be reasonably mellow North of Cape Blanco over the next 4 days


In other news, formerly Hurricane Marie is now a tropical storm and continues to weaken and shrink in size.  She will remain well offshore and will not be a factor for the Ho ho group other than the lingering S swell off the CA waters.


4 day forecast


Today August 28, 2014


OR – N to NW wind 5-15, strongest winds in the far south of the state.  Seas, wind waves 1-4' with a S swell 2-3' at 13 seconds


N. CA – N to NW wind 5-15 building to as high as 20 later in the day.  Seas 4-6' waves from the NW at 7 seconds.  S swell to 7' at 14 seconds


Friday August 29


OR – looks pretty light with N wind 5-10, maybe a bit more near the CA border.  Sea, up to 3' waves from NW at 9 seconds with a 2' swell from the S at 15 seconds


N. CA – N to NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  Less wind likely within 10 miles of coast.  Seas, NW swell to 4 to 5' with wind waves 3-6'.  S swell 4-5' at 15 seconds


Saturday August 30


OR – SW winds in the North half to 10 kts veering to the W late.  Light to NE winds in the in the Southern half to 10 kts with possible gust to 15 late.   Seas, 4' swell from the NW with wind waves to 1' or less.  There will probably be some lingering south swell but likely under 2'


N.  CA – NW winds 15-30, less closer to shore.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' with wind waves to 7'.  Remaining S swell to around 3 or 4' at 13 seconds


Sunday August 31


OR – W to NW wind 5-10 with gusts to 15.  Wind will build closer to the CA border perhaps to 20. NW swell 5' with wind waves to 2'. 


N. CA – NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30. Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.   NW swell 8-10' at 8 seconds with wind waves 4-7'.  S swell to 3'


Monday September 1


OR – N to NW wind 10-20 with the strongest wind in the south ½ .  Seas, NW swell 5-6' with wind waves 2 to 4'


N. CA – NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.  NW swell 8-10' at 8 seconds with wind waves 4-7'.  S swell to 3'


So, based on reports from the sailors who have already made SF, conditions can and do vary.  I know many of the boats found that they had winds and seas exceeding the forecast at times and the reverse was true with lighter winds as well.     The National weather service forecast does call for less wind closer to shore.  However, the models show the gradients closer to shore this time around and I would not be surprised if that 10 mile zone does have at least moderate winds.  Another thing to keep in mind is fog.  There will likely be fog at times for the whole forecast area.


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