Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 Weather August 26 Tuesday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 10:30 pdt August 26 2014


My apologies for the late forecast today!   I'd much rather Nerd out on weather, but I've had to make a living and have spent the morning on the phone.


Hurricane Marie has become a shadow of her former self and is now a Category 2 storm with max winds of 85 kts.   She is still a large storm, as hurricanes go, with tropical storm force winds extending well out from the hurricanes center.  The forecast is for Marie to continue weakening and I suspect she will be downgraded to a tropical storm tomorrow.  As she heads NW she will transition to a "Post Tropical Cyclone" the day after tomorrow, but will likely still have gale force winds through the next 4 days.  Again, the biggest issue for those of you travelling off the coast will be S to SW swell.  The peak swell is forecast to occur Wednesday and then will take 3 or 4 more days to wind down.   The National Weather Service says the largest waves will be occurring from about Pt. Reyes south.   In deep water the waves shouldn't be much of a concern other than being a tad uncomfortable.  The largest issues is when travelling over shoals, across bars or when the wind and waves oppose the waves.  Keep this in mind.


The only real change to the forecast is, maybe, perhaps I backed off too much on the N wind speeds in my last forecast.  The good news is it may not shut off entirely, but be quite manageable winds starting Wednesday for most of the forecast area.   The models show the pacific high weakening over the next few days before re-establishing staring for the weekend.  Later this week a week upper level low will slide into the PNW bringing W to SW winds by Saturday to the WA and N. OR coast.  We could get some precipitation here in Washington during that time, which, by the way is not the best for painting a beach house!


If you are north of the Columbia River, let me know.  I plan to stop forecasting for that area.   As a matter of fact I plan to stop forecasting for all of you once you have all reached SF or south.  I will be available should you wish for me to take a peek at expected conditions, but won't do a dailiy forecast once the last boat arrives in SF, which should be, I believe in the next few days.



I believe I'm done with Washington unless I hear otherwise from one of you.   But FYI the forecasted winds for the WA coast is for NW winds 15 kts or less through Friday and W to SW winds to 10 knots on Saturday.  Light swell to 6' during this time


For Oregon and N. CA the forecast isn't all that dynamic over the next few days so I'm going to lump each zone into one forecast for the four days.


Oregon waters – N winds to 25 with higher gusts today.  N winds 5-20 Wednesday through Friday.  W winds in the Northern portion on Saturday to 10 kts with NW winds in the southern half to 10 kts for Saturday.  For the seas, the largest wind waves and swells will be today with combined seas to 7' from the N to NW at 8 seconds.  In the southern half combine those seas with a 3' S swell at 15 seconds.  The NW seas will diminish over the next 4 days down to about 4'.  The S. swell is forecast to continue for the next 4 days for the waters nearer the border


N. CA Waters – For most of the area today the forecast is for SW winds 0-10 kts.  The exception is near the border where it should still be blowing from the NE to 15 kts.  For Weds – Sat winds are expected for the most part to blow from the NW and 15kts or less.  There will probably be exceptions where the wind could kick up into the low 20's for fairly brief periods.   Seas, the NW swell should be running at 4 – 6' today but will diminish to 4' or less Weds – Saturday.  The South swell is forecast to peak to as high as 8' with the wave height increasing the further South you are in these waters.  The wave period for these waves will be 13 to 16 seconds.   The south swell should slowly diminish in height to be 3-4' by Saturday.




No comments:

Post a Comment