CoHo Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Weather Brief August 16, Saturday

Greetings Rally Runners and friends

The 2014 Coho Ho Ho Rally is starting to get underway.  A couple of boats are goners, the bulk of the fleet leaves the NW Cruisers Party from anacortes this weekend.

Fair winds, good seas to all you!  Be Safe, Have Fun!

Brads Preliminary Weather Post:

Cohohoho Preliminary weather compiled 11:15 PDT August 14.

It's getting to be that time!  I'm sure sailors are plenty busy with last minute details preparing for the upcoming journey down the coast, and for some of you beyond.  I know that Millie J plans to leave early this Friday morning so I thought I'd go ahead and do a preliminary weather outlook.

Currently the weather here in the PNW has been dominated by an upper trough, bringing weather more reminiscent of what we might see in October or perhaps November.   NOAA says this, not summer like weather, should be making an exit to the NE and weak high pressure will be pushing into its place.   Looking at the UW MM5 GFS weather model that appears to be the case.  The net result will be westerly winds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with a moderate onshore push as the high pressure builds.  Winds in the Strait could reach 25 knots or so during the peak times.  Peak times are typically diurnal, meaning coinciding with the interior land heating up, and mostly occur in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest breeze occurring in the eastern and central part of the Strait.   Millie J plans to leave early Friday morning which is likely good timing though there will probably be some motoring.  I haven't looked at the tides, but hopefully they can cover some good ground prior the Westerly winds kicking up.  There are no guarantees and they may have some bouncy conditions to pound through prior to turning the corner.   As they reach the corner the winds will most likely veer to a more SW direction and lighten.

For those planning on leaving on Sunday or a few days later it looks like more of the same through about Monday maybe into Tuesday for the Strait of Juan De Fuca (SJDF).   You can expect it to be windy at times (Sustained westerly winds of 25 knots with higher gusts).  Highest winds or most likely to be in the afternoon and evening till very early morning.  Again, there are no guarantees on when and how strong the breeze will be.   Having done 30 Swiftsure races I can tell you the winds don't always follow the forecast.  There could be no wind at times and I also recommend that you be prepared for fog.  With an onshore push this is always a possibility.  The choppiest conditions will occur when the current is opposing the wind i.e. when the tide is ebbing.  In this pattern the Westerly winds do get lighter as you near Cape Flattery, so there is relief as you get west.  Of course the pounding wind waves are then replaced by the Pacific Ocean swell.

Cape Flattery seems to have its own special weather.    Usually winds are more out of the South than you would expect.  This is temporary.  As you get away from the Cape the winds typically clock around to a more W or NW direction, assuming it's a normal late summer pattern, which this appears it will be. 

As you go down the coast one of biggest issues is dealing with all the crab pots.  It can be a real drag (pun intended) to have to deal with a line associate with a buoy and pot wrapped around the rudder or worse the propeller and shaft.  I've found that if you sail a bit offshore to a depth of 300' or more the pots tend to disappear.  This can mean being a good 20 or more miles off the coast.  I recommend you take a look at the chart contours and plan course accordingly.

The large scale pattern is for a relatively weak Pacific High located well offshore to dominate through at least the next 7 days.  In the PNW the longer range models are pointing towards another upper trough showing up perhaps about the Wednesday Thursday time frame next week.  This would bring similar weather to what we have endured here in Seattle over the last few days.  But if you can turn the corner and get south quickly, you won't have to deal with possible South winds or rain.

Over the next week, In general, the winds all the way down the coast will be North to NW ranging from 0 to 25 kts.  The stronger winds will be from about Central Oregon to SF bay.  The seas don't look to be all that bad with ocean swell running about 4' to 6'.  Wind waves will vary depending on wind strength, but could reach as high as 6 to 8 feet with the worst areas around the capes.   Because the Pacific high pressure is not all that strong and is forecast to be well offshore, it doesn't look like we are going to have the nuking conditions that often happen from about Cape Blanco all the way to SF.  So as not to Jinx things I'm knocking on wood right now, but if this holds true it looks like a reasonable weather window to go down the coast.  I will definitely zero in on a more specific forecast as we get closer to the actual departure for most the Cohohohohoho participants.   Did I put too many ho's in?   The long term forecast can and does change so stay tuned.

One more factor to consider is the possibility of fog.  As is common with the West coast of the US from Central California to WA, there is upwelling of pretty darn cold deep sea waters located right along the coast.  With the cold sea surface temperatures along the coast a micro-climate of fog and misty conditions is common.  Sometimes staying a bit off the coast say 40 to 50 miles can give you relief from the fog, but no always.   The bottom line is be prepared for foggy conditions at times and make sure you have appropriate clothing to keep you warm.

Here is my 4 day forecast for the SJDF and the West Coast of WA and Oregon

Friday August 15

SJDF – winds light to 10 knots of the West in the morning Building to 20 knots in the afternoon and as high as 25 knots in the evening.  Expect wind waves to kick up when it gets windy, up to 4 or 5 feet.  The wind will be lighter and more from the SW near Cape Flattery.  Showers and fog are possible on Friday.

WA and Or West coast – Wind light and variable, building to perhaps 15 knots out of the N to NW late.  The Swell is forecast to be out of the West 4 to 5 feet at 9 to 10 seconds.

Winds near Cape Flattery tend to be more SW

Saturday August 16

SJDF – Winds 10-25 out of the west, lighter in the morning building in the afternoon and peaking late evening.  Wind waves 2-5 feet.

WA and OR coast – winds 5 to 20 knots, lighter in morning windier in afternoon and late evening.  Swell to 5 feet 11 seconds, wind waves to 4' or so.

Winds near Cape Flattery tend to be more SW

Sunday August 17

SJDF – Winds 10-25 out of the west, lighter in the morning building in the afternoon and peaking late evening.  Wind waves 2-5 feet (hmm this looks similar to Saturday)

WA and OR coast – winds 10 -20 NW (if you happen to be near Cape Blanco then perhaps to 25 knots) Sea state Ocean swell 5 feet with wind waves to 6 feet.

Winds near Cape Flattery tend to be more SW.

Monday August 18

SJDF – See forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

WA and OR coast – Winds 5 to 20 out of the N to NW. Swell 5 feet from W to NW.  Possible wind waves 1 to 5 feet.

Winds near Cape Flattery tend to be more SW.

Unless the forecast takes a drastic change, I will not update until sometime on Saturday, and then will do daily forecasts (as my work schedule permits) from there on out.

Brad

Brad Baker   l   Swiftsure Yachts

2500 Westlake Ave N. Suite F   l   Seattle, WA 98109

Office: 206.378.1110   l   Cell: 206.920.7147   l   Fax: 206.378.1124

http://swiftsureyachts.com/

Exceptional Service, Quality Brokerage Boats

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S/V Millie J:

As i type, its 1115 hrs PST Saturday August 16th. All is good and our current position is N46 08.47 W124 24.9 (About 5 miles west of cape shoalwater)...wind is light from N  to NNW.  We have been motoring thus far, but are hopeful the wind picks up so we can sail later today.  We are headed to Newport OR (expect to  be there tomorrow AM) to get fuel, a beer (or two) and stretch our legs.  Best,  Jim Amy and John

S/V Galatea:  Departing Port Angeles today

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Checking-In on the Coho Ho Ho
Boat to Boat, via VHF 69 and/or SSB 4A, check-in time is 06:00 and 18:00 Daily
Boat to Shore, via radio relay, email or txt is mornings before 11:00am, or any other time when possible.
Karl will receive all reports, combine them, and send them out via email before noon, along with the weather
briefing from Brad.  These reports will be cross posted to http://cohohoho.blogspot.com