Monday, August 25, 2014

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 - Brads Weather brief August 25 monday

Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 0915 pdt August 25, 2014


Well, we are down to just one tropical depression and one hurricane off the coast of Mexico.  That one hurricane is a doozy though.  Hurricane Marie currently located for or 4 or 5 hundred miles SW of Cabo had reached Category 5 status yesterday and is now down to a measly Category 4 hurricane, blowing at 125 kts.  Marie is forecast to move continually to the NW and will move over much cooler waters in the next couple of days which will eventually spell her demise.  The effects for the Coho ho ho fleet WILL NOT be the wind and rain which is usually associated with these storms, as Marie should stay well offshore and SW of the fleet.  No, it'll be the ocean swell that you will likely experience.   Those waves have yet to reach the N. California water.  The Southerly swell that is happening now is from two previous systems, Lowell and Karina.  Marie's presence is forecast to start being felt on Tuesday and is projected to build into the 4' to 8' range.  The good news is the wave period is supposed to be 15-17 seconds or so.  Out in open water this won't be a big deal, but closer to shore, where the waves start to feel bottom, they will stack up and create larger than normal breaking waves on the shore.  So be aware of this when sailing near shoals or when the wind and or current is opposite the waves.


Starting tomorrow it looks like a window of less wind and short seas will be opening up over the next 4 days at least.  The downside is it may end up being more of a motorboat ride to SF especially the nearer you get to shore.  As the high pressure weakens and retrogrades more to the West, the pressure gradients will relax and the inland thermal low will push offshore a bit.   In the Pacific NW things will go to an upper level trough pattern come the Thursday Friday time frame.  But that won't affect you guys because all of you are going to be well south of us poor suckers up here.  For me though it's a different matter.  I'm supposed to paint the family beach house over Labor Day weekend, and onshore marine drizzle could really put a monkey wrench in those plans!


Enough about me, here is the 4 day forecast:


Today August 25, 2014


WA coast – N winds 5-20 with the stronger winds happening in the evening.  Seas, west swell 5-6' at 7 seconds.  Wind waves around 2' and possibly less.


Oregon Coast – N winds 5-25 with higher gusts possible near Cape Blanco.  Seas, Combined wind waves and NW swell to 6 maybe 7 feet at 7 seconds.  There might be some S to SW swell to 1 or 2' in the S OR waters.


N. CA Coast – N winds 5 – 25 with the majority of the stronger winds occurring nearer the Oregon Border and further offshore (perhaps 20 miles or more).  It will be significantly lighter in the range closer to shore all along the coast.  Seas, N to NW Swell as high as 8' at 9 seconds along with a south swell to 3' at 15 seconds.


Tuesday August 26


WA – N winds 5-15, maybe a bit diurnal and kicking up to 20 in some places in the afternoon and evening.  Seas, NW swell 4-6' from the NW with wind waves to 2'.


OR – The max wind field should have shifted north now so winds all up and down the Oregon coast could gust up to 25 knots.  The range should be 10-25 from the N.  Seas, NW swell to 5' at 8 seconds and wind waves to 5'.  Possible south swell too in the southern OR waters to 2' maybe 3'.


N. CA – It's going to be pretty darn light, maybe even with some south winds.   Seas, mixed NW swell 4 – 6' at 9 seconds and S swell 2-4' initially at 12 seconds, but getting longer during the day to about 17 seconds.


Wednesday August 27

WA – N to NW winds 5-15.  Seas, NW swell to 4-5' with wind waves to 2'


OR – NW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20.  Seas, NW swell to 5' at 9 seconds, wind waves to 3'.  Southern Oregon probably experiencing S swell to 3' at 16 seconds


CA – Mostly north winds to 10 kts, maybe with some higher gusts.  Combined NW seas to 5' with S swell 4 to 8' at 17 seconds.  The largest South swell is projected to be from Point Arena South. 


Thursday August 28


WA – Light Northerlies to 10 knots.  Seas W swell, 4' at 9 seconds.  Wind waves 1' or less.


OR – N winds 5-15 kts.  Seas W swell, 4' at 9 seconds, wind waves 2' or less.


CA – NW winds to 10 knots.  Seas NW swell 2 – 4' at 8 seconds and S swell 3' to 7' at 15 to 17 seconds.  The south swell will be toward the higher end of the range the further south you get.


Friday August 29


WA – West winds to 10 knots.  Seas, west swell at 4' with wind waves 1' or less


OR – N to NW winds 0-10 kits, maybe to 15 near Cape Blanco.  Seas, W swell 4' and wind waves 2' maybe 3' if windier.


CA – Gradients may start to tighten so let's go with NW winds 5-15.  Seas, NW swell 2-4 feet and south swell 3-6' with a long wave period.




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