Friday, August 29, 2014

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014 Brads Weather brief: August 29 Friday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 29 2014


Things are in flux, the pacific high pressure is centered clear out around 170 degrees of Longitude.  There is moderate low pressure centered just off SE Alaska.  A weak cold front passed through the Pacific NW earlier this morning and the PNW is under the influence of upper level low pressure, bringing southerly surface winds, precipitation at times and cooler temperatures here in WA.   The PNW weather influences the weather off Oregon bringing mostly light winds with some southerly directions in the short term. For N. CA short term forecast has wind for the entire forecast area with that thermal inland low generating enough pressure gradient off the N. CA coast to generate some moderate NW wind (granted some might call what I'm calling moderate as strong, but trust me the winds can blow a lot stronger in these waters).


For the longer term the models continue to show the pacific high moving east, setting up shop at approx. 42N 142W by Tuesday Sept 2nd.  At about 1026 mb the GFS weather model doesn't have the high pressure being all that strong which allows disturbed cooler weather to persist over the PNW into next week.  With high pressure moving closer to the coast the gradients should increase in N. CA and the winds should pipe up From Southern Oregon all the way to SF with the strongest breeze from just N. of Cape Blanco to just south of Cape Mendocino.  Sound familiar?  The wind field (which will have been blowing strongest from about Mendocino south) is forecast to extend further north late in the forecast period.


Bottom line is relatively light off Oregon, with Moderate winds to 25kts for N. CA, with winds increasing come Tuesday and extending into Southern to Central Oregon by Tuesday.


4 day Forecast:


Today August 29


Oregon – Variable wind to 10 knots, except Cape Blanco south, winds 10-15 gusts to20 from the NW.  Seas, 3' NW swell at 10 seconds and wind waves to 2' (2-4' S. of Blanco).  They are also forecasting the S. swell from Cape Blanco south 2 to 3' at 15 seconds.


N. CA – NW winds 15-25 kts.  I've kinda stopped mentioning this, but the winds will probably tend to be diurnal, responding to the heating and cooling of the land.  This means you can expect strongest winds late afternoon and evening hours.  That said it pretty much can blow any bloody time.  The winds will likely be lighter 10 miles or closer to shore.  This may not be the case from about Pt. Arena south where it could stay breezy closer to shore.  Seas, NW swell, 3-5' at 9 seconds with wind waves to 6'.   S swell 3-5' at 13 seconds.


Saturday August 30


OR – SW wind to 10 knots with west swell 5 feet at 10 seconds, wind waves to 2' but probably less.   You will likely see a bit more wind  form W or NW and waves Blanco south, but nothing extreme.


N. CA – NW wind 15-25 knots with gusts to 30.  Seas NW swell to 9 ' at 10 seconds with wind waves to 7'.  S swell 2-4' at 12 seconds.


Sunday August 31


OR  - Variable winds 0-15 kits. Seas NW swell about 5' with wind waves 2' or less.  Again, Blanco south will likely see more consistent wind nw 5-15 with gusts to 20.


N. CA – NW wind 15 – 30, higher gusts possible if not likely.  There will probably be some relief closer to shore but the pattern isn't as strong for this and it does look like from Point Arena south there won't be any relief close to shore.  Seas NW swell 6-9' at 10 seconds wind waves to 5-7',  S swell continues 2-4'.


Monday September 1


OR from Columbia river to Coos bay – NW wind 10-15 kts, W swell 5' with wind waves 2-3'


S. OR and N. CA – N to NW wind 15 -30.  Seas NW swell 7-10' with wind waves 4-7'.


Tuesday September 2


Central Oregon North – NW wind 10 -20, gusts to 25.  W swell 5' with wind waves to 3'


S. OR and N. CA – N to NW wind 15 to 30.  Seas NW swell, 7-10' with wind waves 4-7'.



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