Brad Baker's Coho ho ho weather compiled 0930 August 23
This forecast is consistent with yesterday. There are some changes in store for the latter part of the 4 day forecast. Currently the pacific high pressure should provide Northerly breeze all along the coast, strongest where it interacts most with the thermal low generated from land heating in inland California. The GFS model has been consistent in showing a change come the Tuesday Wednesday time frame. The pacific high is forecast to weaken while the thermal low extends over and into the waters off of Northern California. Initially this will move the strongest wind Northward eventually to Cape Blanco all the way to the Columbia River by late Tuesday. If what the GFS model is currently showing in the long term holds true the winds along the entire coast will go quite light as a ridge extends diagonally from the pacific to over the Pacific NW and a weak thermal trough sits off the California waters centered just off San Francisco. The end result will be not a lot of gradient and it is possible if not likely that there will be light Southerly winds perhaps from Mendocino to SF.
Currently there are two Hurricanes and a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific waters off Mexico. This will generate ocean swell coming from the South into our forecast area. This swell could reach as high as 5'.
I think the fleet is all south of The Strait of Juan de Fuca, so I'm going to discontinue forecasting there. However over the next four days the forecast is pretty much the same with light winds in the morning possible building westerly winds in the afternoon and evening peaking at 25 max.
Here is the four day forecast
Today August 23, 2014
WA and N. Or Coast to about Lincoln City – N. Wind 5 -15 building in the evening to as high as 25 kts. Seas, W. swell 5' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 3'.
Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Windiest between the capes where it will blow to 30 knots sustained from the North with higher gusts. Between the capes the winds will be lighter to 20 kts 10 miles or closer to shore. North of Cape Blanco winds will be in the 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas will be a mixed bag with the largest most confused waves between the capes where the forecast is for combined wind waves and swell from the North to 11' at 8 seconds with South 3' swell with a 15 second period thrown in. North of Cape Blanco the waves should be more in the 5'-7' range. The south swell should extend into this area.
Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with the strongest winds in the northern portion of this area. Closer to shore the winds will be lighter and possibly even calm winds. Fog is more likely closer to shore. Seas NW swell 6-8' at 8 seconds with a S. Swell 3' at 15 seconds.
Sunday August 23, 2014
WA and N. OR – N to NW wind 5-20 with gust to 25 possible. W swell to 6' with wind waves to 4'.
Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Pretty much a repeat of yesterday with the exception that it looks as though the winds will start to moderate a bit starting in the evening down to 25 knot max winds or less. Seas will be the same
Cape Mendocino to SF – N to NW winds 5-25 with gusts to 30 and even higher at times. As I've mentioned before it can kick up for no apparent reason in these waters often for a short duration. Strongest winds will be in the North portion. Southern portion and closer to shore should be lighter all the way down to 0 kts at times. Foggy in some areas. Seas NW Swell 5-10 ' (larger NW swell closer to Mendocino) at 9 seconds with a S swell 3' at 15 seconds.
Monday August 24
WA to N OR – N to NW wind 5-15 with gusts 20 . W swell to 5' with wind waves to 3'
Central OR to Cape Mendocino – N to NW winds 10-25 knots. Strongest winds centered around Cape Blanco. Seas, as I'm sure you have found out by now higher gusts are possible if not likely. The Seas are forecast to be a fun compilation of combined NW wind waves and swell to 10' with an 8 second period. mixed with a S. swell and SW swell both 2-3 feet at 15 seconds.
Cape Mendocino to SF – It will probably start out fairly windy in the North Portion to 25 kts, but will likely mellow out during the day with winds 15 kts or lower as the thermal low starts to push offshore and the Pacific high weakens. The strongest winds during the day will be in the Northern zone near the Cape. Winds nearer to SF could very well be light from inconsistent directions. The forecast does call for fog in the zone 10 miles or closer to shore. Seas combined swell 5-10' from NW at 8 seconds, starting to diminish. Mix in a S and SW swell 3 to 4' with a period of 15 seconds.
Tuesday August 25
WA to N. OR – N to NW winds 5-20. West swell 4' with wind waves to as high as 4' as well.
Central OR to Cape Mendocino – Models show it mellowing out starting at Cape Mendocino and Moving N. The strongest winds should be North of Cape Blanco for a change. N to NW winds 5-25 kts. With the strongest winds Cape Blanco North. Overall the winds should be decreasing on the whole by the end of the day. Seas will be the usual combined NW wind wave and swell to 8' with a southerly swell thrown in with a longer wave period of about 15 seconds.
Mendocino to SF – wind 0 – 15 kts mostly from a Northerly direction though it's possible you will see southerly closer to shore and later in the day. Seas NW swell 4-6' at 9 seconds combined with S and SW swell to 4'. Wind waves 3' or less.
Wednesday August 26
WA to No OR – N to NW winds 5-15. West swell to 5' with wind waves 3' or less
Cape Blanco to Lincoln city – (note I changed the zone here) N to NW winds 10 – 25 with higher gusts possible. Seas, Combined wind waves and swell 6-7 feet combined with a S Swell 3 to 4 feet at 15 seconds. The wind and waves should be diminishing toward the end of the day.
Cape Blanco to SF – Variable direction to NW winds 0 – 15 knots with perhaps winds to 20 knots nearer cape Blanco. From Mendocino South the wind direction is you guess, it could easily have a southerly component. The seas will be chilling out with the largest seas in the Northern Portion. We are looking at a NW swell 3-6' at 8 seconds and a South Swell to 4' at 15 seconds. Oh I almost forgot, patchy fog, especially closer to shore.
Enjoy!
Brad
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