motorsailed overnight in building winds moderate swell. Sunrise today fog lifted. Sailed wing on wing for a couple hours
then back to motorsail under clear and sunny sky. Just off Long Beach now at noon of the 18th. Going well crew is happy
a little qiusy but improving. Looks like weather will hold till Crescent City we hope. We will go for fuel if this keeps up
send reports to KarlAbby Normal: 48 09.080N, 123 25.090WAndante: 48 08.46N, 123 24.13WApropos: 48 10.76N, 123 32.28WMabrouka: anchored in Port Angeles, did not check inFriday: not in rally buddy boating with Andante, Jared + 2 crew onboardSonamara: at dock in Port Angeles, did not check inVelvet Sky: at Neah Bay, leaving there this morning at 8:30 am, contact via email
Cohohoho weather compiled 0900 PDT August 18
The Forecast remains on track with a relatively week 1028mb pacific high centered at about 40N, 144W. The forecasters at the National Weather Service are calling for an upper level trough to affect the Pacific NW area with cooler temperatures and the possibility of clouds and sprinkles at time starting on Tuesday going into the weekend. As for the Strait of Juan de Fuca (SJDF) there is currently a small craft warning issued through late tonight. I suspect they will re-issue for Tuesday and possibly later in the week. The pattern hasn't changed from my previous forecast. Onshore flow should persist over the next 4 days bringing westerlies in the Strait. The wind speeds are forecast to be diurnal with strong winds when the inland heats up. Strongest winds in the SJDF will generally occur afternoon and evening hours, but you should be prepared for it to kick up at other times as well.
For the waters off the coast the winds should remain N to NW as the trough comes in they may go more NW to WNW in the waters off Washington and possibly N. OR. As I have mentioned before the wind does tend to go SW right at Cape Flattery, even when we have a NW pattern. I believe this is because the breeze is bending around the corner here. As you get further away from the SJDF entrance the wind should clock around to a more sensible direction. It looks like the NW winds will increase tonight off the WA coast to as high as 25 knots before settling back down to 20 kts or less sometime Tuesday evening. I mentioned in my last forecast that it might get flukey off the WA coast on Tuesday, but it looks, though it may get lighter at times closer to shore late tues or weds, the wind will stay more from a N to NW direction on the whole.
For Southern Oregon and Northern California we do have the typical pattern of an inland thermal trough combined with higher pressure offshore. The forecasters aren't calling for winds much over 25 knots, but past experience tells me that often times it does blow stronger than they are forecasting, so beware. The National weather service has issued small craft warning for just N. of Cape Blanco all the way down to SF through Friday. The primary reason for this is what they call "hazardous seas". With the relatively rapid increase in wind over a relatively short distance, the wave period (time between peaks) tends to be very short. The obvious side effect of this is steep waves, breaking at times. Just for fun they are throwing in longer period ocean swell coming from at least two different directions, from the NW and from the SW. Mix this with the wind waves and you get what I term "confused seas". The worst seas should be from about just North of Cape Blanco to just S. of Cape Mendocino (the capes). Though the winds may be manageable sailors will also be dealing with challenging seas. Time frame for this is now through at least Friday. However…..It does appear that the inland thermal trough may shift a bit offshore starting just South of Cape Blanco Thursday or Friday. This would provide relief, from wind at least, closer to shore. It's a bit too far in the future to have solid faith in this, but I will monitor. Regardless general it looks like the winds will be less (5 to 10 Kts less) within about 10 nm from now through the next 4 days.
I've had two different boats ask about conditions if you stay 100 miles offshore. The bottom line is the wind will not be much it all lighter off the capes. The seas might be a little less confused………might. With the high well offshore the pressure gradient extends quite aways out. It doesn't look like the Norhterlies mellow out until you get 175 to 200 miles off the coast. For those who are planning to stop in San Francisco if you were to stay 100 miles out this means that as you make your approach you will be reaching in fairly windy and (read above) confused seas. You could end up beam too in these conditions. I'm just say'n.
Weather aside, remember to look out for crab pots. If you get beyond 300' of water they generally go away. For those of you with AIS keep in mind that the smaller fishing boats are not required to and general don't broadcast an AIS position. Remain vigilant. It is very likely that the fleet will be dealing with limited visibility at times, especially with the upper level trough settling in in the PNW. It may get misty and or foggy. In reality this is always a possibility up and down the entire West Coast of the US.
4 day forecast time:
Today
SJDF – West wind 5-25 more wind in the afternoon and evening hours. Mist and foggy possible. Winds strongest I the east and central strait. Wind lighter at the W. entrance.
WA and N. OR – N to NW wind 10-25 kts. The wind should peak/be strongest this evening through Tuesday. Strongest winds forecast to be off the North half of the WA coast. Seas 5' building to 7' with a fairly short period of 7 to 9 seconds.
Central OR and N. CA – N to NW wind 10 – 30. Strongest winds South of Cape Blanco. Seas mixed swell, NW at 3' and 10 seconds, SW at 2' at 16 seconds, wind waves to 8 feet.
Tuesday August 19
SJDF – W wind 5-25 in the east and central strait. Windiest in the afternoon and evening possibly to 30. W wind to 15 nearer the entrance.
WA and N. OR – N to NW wind, possibly briefly more from WNW. Wind speed 10 – 25, probably getting lighter to 20 knots Tues. Evening. Seas, swell to 8' from NW at 8 seconds. Wind waves 3-5 feet.
Central OR and N. CA – N to NW winds 15-30. The strongest winds again south of Cape Blanco. The National weather service is saying there is a potential for gale force winds Tuesdayand Tuesday night South of Cape Blanco, so It could possibly blow stronger. The good news is they expect it to mellow a bit come Wednesday. Winds should be a bit lighter closer to shore. Seas, mixed longer period swell again from the NW and SW to 2' with wind waves to 8 feet from the NW.
Wednesday August 20
SJDF – West wind 5 to 25 East and central strait, yes windiest in afternoon and evening. Wind will be less nearer Flattery.
WA and N. OR – NW wind 10-20. Swell 7 to 8 feet at 8 seconds from NW. Wind waves 1-3'.
Central OR and N. CA – NW winds 10-25 with gust to 30 knots. Seas to remain the biggest issue with mixed swell and wind waves to 8 feet. The wind will be lighter within 10 miles of shore. Waves will still make for a bumpy ride though.
Thursday August 19
SJDF – Same as Wednesday
WA and N. OR – mellowing out N to NW wind 5-15. Seas, W Swell to 5 feet. Wind waves less than 3'.
Central OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10 – 25 with higher gusts. Windiest conditions still appear to be S. of Cape Blanco. The seas might get a little less confused, but there will still be a mixed swell and short wave period for the wind waves up to 8 feet. The wind within 10 miles of land winds should be quite a bit less.
Friday August 20
SJDF – Same as Thursday.
WA and N. OR – NW wind 5 -15 kts (note anytime there is 5 knots in a forecast I've found that it can also mean no wind). Swell to 5 feet from the West with wind waves less than 3'.
Central OR to N. CA – N to NW wind 10 – 25 with higher gusts. Wind strongest south of Cape Blanco. Seas to 8' from NW with short period. Less wind within 10 miles of shore.
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