From: Brad Baker <brad@swiftsureyachts.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 19, 2014 at 7:50 AM
Coho ho ho weather compiled August 19, 0730 pdt.
Good morning. I've been "surfing" weather this morning on the internet with a cup of coffee in hand. I'm sitting in a chair that hasn't moved in the slightest. I'm sure that can't be said for a number of you! Hopefully those of you at sea are finding your sea legs.
There are a few tweaks to the forecast, but nothing major and the overall pattern continues to be the same. There is high pressure offshore with a thermal low inland of North California. In the PNW a week upper level trough is forecast to affect the area until perhaps the weekend. Onshore flow in WA is forecast to persist with varying winds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but windy at times. Winds along the coast will be variations on a North to NW. from WA to N. CA. The strongest winds still look to be in the area around and between Capes Blanco and Mendocino. A concern for those at on the water is the seas in this area generally get steep and confused.
One possible wrinkle I'm seeing this morning has to do with the waters of WA and N. OR in the Thursday Friday time frame. The latest GFS weather model shows a light counter clockwise rotation forming off the coast for a day or two. There is a potential for winds to be light along our Coast Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service is still calling for light N winds during this time, but it could very well be no wind or even some light headwinds. It's a good bet that you there will be fog, mist or even some light rain in this area as well.
It was interesting reading the reports from some of the boats out there as well as the buoy reports. The Adams onboard their Outbound 46 experienced winds gusting to 40 knots when about 35 miles offshore near Cape Blanco. Galatea, further north reported no wind an fog when they turned the corner at Flattery and light winds down the coast as they motor sailed. The buoy reports are a mixed bag with the wind blowing in the mid-teens from the NNW currently at Cape Elizabeth and 20 nm off the Columbia River. There is currently no wind 20nm off Newport OR. The buoy 15 nm west of Port Orford at Cape Blanco is reporting N winds in the mid to high. The buoy 8 nm off Crescent City reports light SE winds. This is all what was, and we are primarily concerned with what will be. However it does illustrate the inherent variability out there. My forecasts predictions are just that, predictions. We do the best we can to get the forecast right, but Sailor do need to be prepared for conditions outside the box, both on the windier side and in the no wind department.
Forecast.
Today
SJDF – Winds 0-25 mostly from the West. Diurnal winds with strongest in the afternoon and evening especially in the eastern 2/3's of the strait
WA and N. OR - N winds 5-20 with the lightest winds nearest the coast. Seas, NW swell 6-8 feet at 8 seconds with wind waves to 3'
Central OR to N CA – N winds 5-30 strongest winds occurring Cape Blanco and just South where there will be higher gusts. Seas, there is a warning for hazardous seas in this area, forecast to be wind waves to 8' with a mixed swell to 2' from NW and SW.
Wednesday August 20
SJDF - Winds 0-25 mostly from the West. Diurnal winds with strongest in the afternoon and evening especially in the eastern 2/3's of the strait
WA and N. OR – NW winds 5-15 fog or drizzle likely at times. Seas 6' at 9 seconds Wind waves 2' or less.
Central OR to N. CA – 5-25 with higher gusts between the capes. Lighter winds near the coast, within 10 miles perhaps maxing out at 20 knots. Seas, wind waves to 7' with very short period combined with a mixed swell from NW and SW.
Thursday August 21
SJDF - see Wednesday
WA and N. OR – N to NW winds 0 -15, could get a bit drippy. Possibility of some light winds from directions other than the N.
Central OR to N. CA – 5-25 with higher gusts between the capes. Lighter winds near the coast, within 10 miles perhaps maxing out at 20 knots. Seas, wind waves to 7' with very short period combined with a mixed swell from NW and SW.
Friday August 21
SJDF – West winds 5-15 strongest are forecast to be in the Eastern half of the straight in afternoon and evening.
WA and N. OR – N to NW winds 0 -15, could get a bit drippy. Possibility of some light winds from directions other than the N. W. swell to 5' wind waves 3' or less
Central OR to N. CA – 5-25 with higher gusts between the capes. Lighter winds near the coast, within 10 miles perhaps maxing out at 20 knots. Seas, wind waves to 7' with very short period combined with a mixed swell from NW and SW.
Saturday August 22
SJDF – more of the same
WA and N. OR – N to NW winds 5-20, Seas, swell to 5' with wind waves 3'
Central OR to N. CA – the pattern continues, 5-25 with higher gusts between the capes. Lighter winds near the coast, within 10 miles perhaps maxing out at 20 knots. Seas, wind waves to 7' with very short period combined with a mixed swell from NW and SW.
There are indications that the winds will moderate come the Sunday Monday time frame in the Northern California waters so stay tuned.
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