Sunday, August 31, 2014

Coho Ho Ho Rally 2014: Brads weather brief, August 31 sunday

Brad Baker Coho ho ho weather August 31, 2014


Yesterday's forecast seems to be on track.  The GFS weather model has been consistent with the pattern.  The pacific high is marching east and is forecast to then drift to the North over the next 4 or 5 days.   The Thermal low generated by the hotter temperatures inland of N. CA will continue to interact with the high pressure creating an area of wind off the N. CA coast that will have moderate to strong N to NW winds and the short wave period choppy/confused seas that come along with those winds.  The latest GFS model shows the thermal low pushing a bit to the NW as the pacific high drifts north.  This is why the wind field will extend further north extending into Oregon waters.  Another side effect should be that the waters closer to land from about Mendocino South should go to a pattern where there will be less wind closer to shore.  This pattern should be well in place by later Tuesday into Wednesday. 


4 day Forecast (all are From Coos Bay to SF)


Today August 31, 2014


From Coos Bay to Cape Mendocino, Light to Moderate N to NW winds 5-20 k with the lighter winds further South in this area.  The winds should increase as the day goes on.  From Mendocino to SF winds will are forecast at NW 15-25 with gust to 30.  There will likely be a bit less wind 10 miles or closer to shore for the entire forecast area.  Seas, combined seas to 10', obviously less where there is less wind.


Labor Day


N to NW wind 15-25 with gusts to 30.  The wind will likely be a bit less north of Cape Blanco.  The South of Blanco there should be relief 10 miles or closer to shore.  As the wind increases the seas will become steep and confused with a short wave period.


Tuesday September 2


N to NW winds 10-30 with gusts to 35.  Strongest winds will likely be from Cape Blanco to Point Reyes.   With the thermal low pushing more to the west the waters closer to shore should offer relief from wind.  This should be most pronounced 10 miles or closer to shore.   Combined seas to 12' with very short wave period


Wednesday September 3


N to NW winds 15 -30 with gusts as high as 35 in the windiest locations.  Strongest winds between the capes.  Less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.   Combined seas 12 with shore wave period.  The biggest seas will likely be near Cape Mendocino.


Thursday September 4


Maybe mellowing a bit, let's go with N to NW wind 10-25 kts with gusts to 30.  The stronger are forecast to extend to about mid Oregon Coast.  From Cape Blanco south there should be less wind 10 miles or closer to shore.  Combined seas to 10'. 






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