Brad Baker Coho ho ho Weather compiled 0900 PDT August 22
You may have noticed on some days the forecast comes out later. Mon, Wed and Fri are my mornings to work out so I get started a bit later on the forecast.
It's been very interesting this morning I woke up to a clear blue skies just before sunrise. I went outside and there was a heavy dew. In the hour or so since then a hazy low clouds have formed out of thin air. The air must have cooled just enough for this to happen. I suspect it will burn off quickly this morning. This has nothing to do with you sailors so on with the forecasting stuff.
The large scale pattern remains to be relatively weak high pressure offshore with a thermal trough inland. Producing primarily N to NW winds up and down the coast. In the PNW the upper level low is departing east allowing the winds off the WA and N OR coast to switch back to the north. The transition happened last night and early this morning along the coast. The strongest pressure gradient does remain off the S. OR and N. CA coast primarily between the capes and is still forecast to increase a bit over the weekend. The model continues to show a shift in the pattern starting Tuesday with the Pacific high migrating a little NE, the inland thermal low pushes a bit offshore. It appears the net effect will be to initially move the strongest pressure gradient a bit North Tuesday and Wednesday and eventually the pressure gradients will lessen a fair amount for uncharacteristic light winds off the capes. The models have been pointing toward this solution the last few runs.
Something of interest is the very active Tropical weather activity in the Pacific waters off Mexico. There are currently three tropical storms! One of those storms, "Marie" looks like it will become a major Hurricane over the next 3 or 4 days. I suspect the reason we have SW swell in the forecast for the N. CA waters is these storms. The ho ho fleet need not be overly concerned about these storms as they are not a threat to the waters along the US west coast. The weather patterns and cooler water see to that. The storms may interact with the larger scale pattern enough to actually shut off the breeze along the California coast and there will likely be a pesky south swell mixing the seas up.
On to the four day forecast.
Today August 22
SJDF – IS anyone still in the strait? If not I'll stop bothering to do a forecast. Wind 0-10 during the day builds to 5 – 20 afternoon and evening, all should be from some form of a Westerly direction.
WA to Central Oregon – N to NW wind 0-15 kts possible higher gusts. Some of you probably had some drizzle last night. Seas 4-6 foot swell from W to NW with wind waves 3' or less
S. OR to N. CA – Gradients will tighten up a bit starting this evening bringing small craft advisory winds with the potential for low end gales for parts of the forecast area. N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts into the low 30's. The strongest winds will be between the capes. 10 miles or closer to shore should have less wind especially as you get south of Crescent city. As you get South of Cape Mendocino the gradients really relax and I wouldn't be surprised if boats in this area experience periods of calm. Seas, NW swell at about 5' at 8 seconds, combined with S to SW swell 3' at 13 seconds and add wind waves starting at 5' building to 6 or 7'. Maybe it's obvious, but the worst seas will occur where it's windiest.
Saturday August 23
SJDF – West wind 0-25. How's that for covering my bases? OK, it should be diurnal with building breeze afternoon and evening.
WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 5-15, probably building a bit in the evening to about 20 max. Higher guest always possible though. Seas 4 to 5' swell from the NW at 7 seconds. Wind waves to 4'.
S. OR to N. CA Windy between the capes at 20- 25 kts from the N to NW, gusts into the 30's. Elsewhere the winds should be more in the 10-20 range. As has been the case the winds will be lighter closer to shore between the capes. Sea will likely be confused and challenging in the windiest areas. Combined swells from multiple directions along with wind waves up to 10' will produce some odd combinations of waves, steeper seas and breaking at times.
Sunday August 24
SJDF – West winds 0-10 in the morning building 5-20 in the afternoon and evening. Winds will be light at Cape Flattery perhaps building to 15 in the afternoon and evening.
WA to Central OR – N to NW wind 10-20 kts, probably easing a bit to 15 kts in the afternoon and evening. Seas NW swell 6' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 4'.
S. OR to N. CA – The pattern continues. N to NW winds 10-25 with gusts in excess of 30. Strongest winds between the capes and perhaps building a bit north of Cape Blanco, perhaps20 or 30 miles. The strongest winds should start to migrate a bit offshore as well. The winds south of Cape Mendocino should be quite a bit more mellow, especially closer to shore. The S. Swell is forecast to build as well now to 4' at 13 to 15 seconds. Combine with NW swell and wind waves to 10' and you have a not so fine mix of confused seas. Conditions should be better closer to shore for both wind and waves between the capes.
Monday August 25
SJDF – Light wind building to 20 in the afternoon and evening from the West. Lighter for the western 3rd of the strait.
WA to Central OR – Winds 5-15 with gust to 20 except the southern portion of the forecast area where the winds will be stronger to 25 kts, especially toward the second half of the day. Seas, NW swell 5' at 7 seconds with wind waves to 4'
S. OR to N. CA – I think the day may continue the pattern of windy between the capes, but will start to mellow out the second half of the day especially south of Crescent City. So there will be a wide range of conditions over the forecasted area. Winds 15-25 with higher gusts in the Northern part around cape Blanco and getting progressively lighter as you head South ranging from 0 – 20 The model does show quite a bit less pressure gradient closer to shore at the capes and certainly as you get south of cape Mendocino. As you can imagine there will be a wide range of sea state as well. The underlying swell will still have the S swell 4' at 15 seconds combine with a North swell to 9' at 8 seconds. The wind waves will vary a lot and where its windy things are going to be pretty darn bouncy, with the potential for breaking waves.
Tuesday August 26
SJDF – I think I'm done forecasting this let me know if you are still going to be in this area
WA and Central OR – N wind 10 to 20 in the North half, N wind 15- 25 in the South half. Overall the gradient's won't be super tight so it may end up being toward the lower end of those forecast speeds. We will know more as we get closer to this date. Seas look to be 5-7' NW swell with wind waves 2 to 5'. You should also start to feel the S. swell as you get further south.
S. OR to N. CA - the strongest gradients will be at Cape Blanco north and a little south, where it still could be potentially be blowing 25 kts with higher guest. If you are within 40 miles of shore south of that area the winds will likely be light as the thermal low moves offshore. You may even see some southerly component as you get more toward SF. I'll fine tune this forecast as we get closer. The Seas continue with more of the same with mixed swell. Hopefully the seas will chill out with the lighter winds, though there will be left over slop.
Looking longer down the road it does appear that the winds along the coast from mid Oregon South will moderate a lot with potential for calms. Stay tuned.
Brad
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